× Hydrologic Outlook
Until 2025-03-20T17:00:00-04:00 • National Weather Service
ESFAPX The final Spring 2025 Flood Outlook for Northern Michigan indicates a near average probability of flooding due to snow melt within major eastern Upper and northern Lower Michigan river basins. This represents a decrease in probabilities due to snow melt during the first half of March This outlook covers Chippewa and Mackinac counties in eastern Upper Michigan which includes the Pine River Basin...and the northern half of Lower Michigan encompassing Au Sable...Boardman...Manistee... Rifle...and Tobacco River basins. The first table below lists the probabilities of reaching flood stage (minor flooding)...as well as moderate and major flood levels for the six forecast points within the Gaylord National Weather Service office Hydrologic Service Area. Current (CS) and historical (HS) probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS: the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS: the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Manistee River Sherman 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 16 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Boardman River Mayfield--Brown B 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Au Sable River Red Oak 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rifle River Sterling 6.0 11.0 13.0 : 33 64 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pine River Rudyard 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Tobacco River Beaverton 12.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet Departure from normal of reaching flood stage is the difference between the current projected chance for reaching flood stage (CS) and the climatological normal (HS). For example...the Manistee River near Sherman...with a Flood Stage of 15 feet...has a 16 percent chance of reaching or exceeding flood stage. This is 4 percentage points above normal. During the 90 day period listed...the typical probability of the Manistee River near Sherman reaching flood stage is 12 percent. The next table shows the chance that a particular river location could rise above the listed stages in the specified 90 day period (high flow forecast): ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Manistee River Sherman 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.9 :Boardman River Mayfield--Brown B 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.4 :Au Sable River Red Oak 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.0 :Rifle River Sterling 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.2 6.4 7.5 8.5 :Pine River Rudyard 7.9 8.0 8.6 10.2 11.8 13.5 14.3 :Tobacco River Beaverton 4.2 4.8 5.7 6.2 6.9 7.8 8.7 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Manistee River Sherman 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 :Boardman River Mayfield--Brown B 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :Au Sable River Red Oak 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 :Rifle River Sterling 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 :Pine River Rudyard 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :Tobacco River Beaverton 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Spring flood outlooks are routinely issued in February and March in order to give advance notice of possible flooding. The long range probabilistic outlooks given in the above tables contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...and incorporated current river levels...soil moisture conditions...snow water equivalent values...as well as 30 and 90 day outlooks for temperature and precipitation provided by the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center. Actual river crests will differ from this outlook if future conditions differ significantly from forecast conditions...or if ice jams develop. ...Current Conditions... Recent rain and snow melt have reduced the likelihood going forward of additional flooding due to melting snow...especially across northern Lower Michigan. Precipitation through the Summer months (June-August) was generally from 75 to 125 percent of normal. Across eastern Upper Michigan June was the wettest month of the summer with precipitation 150 to 200+ percent of normal...things started to dry out in July with below normal rainfall though most areas received at least 50 percent of normal precipitation. A similar trend was noted in August. Precipitation during the Fall months (September-November) started out below normal for September (less than 50 percent of normal with some areas less than 25 percent of normal) and October (25 to 75 percent of normal). But November precipitation was above normal in most locations...more than 200 percent of normal across northern Chippewa county and in the higher terrain of eastern Antrim/western Otsego/northwest Kalkaska counties mainly due to a significant lake effect snow event during Thanksgiving weekend. Precipitation for the Winter (December through February) featured quite a bit of snowfall for the lake effect snowbelts. The Gaylord NWS office set a new record snowfall for the winter of 149.5 inches. Sault Ste. Marie recorded its second snowiest winter on record (138.9 inches)...Houghton Lake its third snowiest winter (72.2 inches) and Traverse City tied its fourth snowiest winter (125.1 inches). From a liquid equivalent precipitation standpoint...Sault Ste. Marie recorded its 7th wettest winter on record (9.94 inches/3.42 inches above normal). Snow water equivalent in the snow pack across eastern Upper Michigan is generally 3 to 4 inches across Mackinac and southeast Chippewa county...and from 6 to 9 inches across the remainder of Chippewa county. Across northern Lower snow water equivalent is less than 2 inches in areas that still have snow cover...and 1 to 3 inches across areas of northwest Lower that still have snow cover. Soil moisture is near normal across all of northern Michigan. Streamflows on northern Michigan rivers are near normal thanks to recent rain-on-snowmelt. D2 (Severe) Drought conditions continue across parts of Leelanau... Alpena...Benzie...Oscoda...Alcona...Manistee...Ogemaw...Iosco... Gladwin...and Arenac counties. Moderate (D1) Drought conditions also continue across parts of Presque Isle...Montmorency...Grand Traverse...Kalkaska...Crawford... Wexford...Missaukee...and Roscommon counties. ...Weather Outlook... The 6 to 10 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center valid for the period of March 18-9 2025 is indicating a high likelihood for above normal temperatures...and leaning toward above normal precipitation. The outlook for the Spring (March through May) indicates no discernible trend with regard to temperatures (equal probabilities for above...normal...and below normal temperatures)...and a 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal precipitation. ...Additional Information... This is the final Spring Flood Outlook for 2025. Long range probabilistic outlooks such as those given in the above tables are issues during the last week of each month throughout the year. Visit water.noaa.gov/wfo/apx for more river information...including graphs of the probabilistic information given in the above tables... the latest observed conditions on northern Michigan streams...as well as analyses of precipitation and snowfall.