Hardscrabble Snow Report

300 FXUS63 KLSX 240830 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 330 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy skies and seasonably cool temperatures are expected for the next couple days. - Rain chances return this weekend, with more widespread and significant (0.50+ inches) rain likely mid-week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Current mesoanalysis shows that there is a weak, mid/upper-level low pressure center over the Ohio Valley with anomalously strong surface ridging over eastern Canada (>99th climatological percentile). This surface high is supporting the continued northeasterly surface flow we have been experiencing. This northeasterly flow combined with abundant low-level moisture and low-level cold air advection, is continuing to support low level stratus clouds over much of the reason. These clouds prevented temperatures across most of the region from dropping too much overnight, only into the low 60s. Some clearing is present in northern MO where temperatures were able to drop into the 50s. The vast majority of these clouds will remain over northern and far eastern MO and southwestern and west-central IL., continuing to moderate surface temperatures. This afternoon, for regions under the heavy cloud cover, highs are expected to only rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s, while areas that experience thinner clouds (and possibly the periodic sunshine), will warm up into the mid 70s. The NBM continues to struggle to handle temperatures when widespread cloud cover is expected. Current NBM guidance continues the cloud cover into Friday and has high temperatures about 5-10 degrees warmer than this afternoon. As the mid/upper level low moves to the east being replaced by ridging, it could allow clouds today to mix out sooner than they did yesterday. If the clouds mix out quicker than expected tomorrow, it would allow temperatures to be warmer than today (mid to upper 70s), but if the clouds are able to remain approximately the same then tomorrows high temperatures could be similar to today. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 A pattern change is expected going into the weekend, with a gradual warm up. The GFS and EPS ensembles are showing that a mid/upper-level ridge is expected to build over the Midwest into the weekend, pushing the surface high and mid/upper level low to the east. This would bring southerly flow back to the area, possibly increasing temperatures over the weekend into early next week. There remains uncertainty in the exact magnitude of the warm up however. NBM and LREF interquartile ranges for Saturday through Wednesday are around 5-6 degrees, so guidance is unsure if we will remain in the mid to upper 70s or heat up into the mid 80s. These wide ranges are driven by a return of rain chances which could cool temperatures as low as the mid 60s (10% percentile). Long-range deterministic models are also hinting of a sharp shortwave moving through the central CONUS Tuesday and Wednesday that could bring a cold front into the region, but ensembles during the same time are having a difficult time capturing the timing of the front with interquartile ranges around 10 degrees by the middle of next week. As a result, temperatures could remain in the mid to upper 70s or drop back into the 60s to lower 70s. With the approaching pattern change, our chances of rain increase again. Friday into Sunday, deterministic models show a shortwave moving through the central Great Plains and into the Midwest providing support for a chance of rain Friday night through Saturday. The LREF indicates a 60-90% chance of measurable rainfall across central and northeastern MO over the weekend, but amounts are not expected to be significant with only a 40-60% chance of 0.25 inches of rain in northeastern MO. The possible sharp shortwave during the middle of the week also brings the greatest chance of widespread rain through the forecast period. LREF guidance shows a 70-90% chance of 0.01 inches of rain across our entire area, and 50-60% chance of 0.50+ inches of rain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 Low ceilings continue to be the primary concern during the 06Z TAF period, with widespread MVFR categories expected overnight through tomorrow morning, especially at UIN/STL/SUS/CPS. Current observations (03Z) show that local ceilings remain above VFR levels, but clouds upstream to the east are lower, and ceilings are likely to drop overnight due to diurnal processes. While the exact timing of this lowering is somewhat uncertain, we continue to expect at least a few hours of MVFR ceilings between late tonight and mid morning tomorrow at those terminals. Brief ceiling reductions are also possible at COU/JEF, but confidence is much lower that the western edge of the cloud shield (and especially the MVFR ceilings) will make it this far west. Ceilings are expected to gradually lift and move off to the northeast between late morning and early afternoon, leaving behind VFR conditions the remainder of the period. BRC && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Asel/Gosselin LONG TERM...Asel/Gosselin AVIATION...19