Hardscrabble Snow Report

865 FXUS63 KLSX 050748 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 148 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A light freeze is possible this weekend across most rural areas with the best chance (>80%) for sheltered river valley locations. - A gradual warming trend is expected through the first half of next week along with dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 147 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 A broad field of low-level stratus continues to spin cyclonically in association with a slow moving vertically stacked system across the Upper Midwest. The southern edge of this cloud deck is now situated across far northern portions of MO and the northern half of IL, meaning locations south of this line are mostly clear. Where it is clear, surface winds are lighter, which has allowed temperatures to lower into the mid/upper 40s compared to the lower 50s where low- clouds are lingering. The formation of patchy fog is favored for locations that cleared around or shortly after sunset, which is generally along and south of I-70, and where the wind will be light enough. Therefore, the ingredients for fog are best across southern MO/IL and gradually get less favorable the further north, mostly due to more wind at the surface. River valleys across this area may experience more widespread, somewhat dense fog until it lifts a few hours after sunrise this morning. Cyclonic mid-level flow continues to pivot southeastward across the Upper Midwest today, merging with a shortwave traversing into the Great Plains. As these features aloft move through, another cold front is forecast to slide north to south across the region by tonight. As a result, there will be a 10-15 degree gradient in high temperatures across the area from NW (lower 50s) to SE (upper 60s) by this afternoon. More low-level cloud cover, along with a low (20%) chance for scattered light showers, will accompany the post- frontal airmass from later this evening into tonight. Widespread cloud cover tonight will lead to most locations staying in the 40s. If there are any breaks in cloud cover, that would allow for some localized upper 30s in the cooler low-lying locations. By Friday, continued low-level CAA and lingering clouds during most of the day will lead to a rather small diurnal curve. Just how muted the diurnal heating is will greatly depend on how widespread cloud cover is and how quickly it clears from north to south, all of which are uncertain at this time. However, some high resolution guidance shows a much cooler scenario than the NBM, with most locations topping out in the 40s on Friday. Those solutions represent a cloudier scenario and might be too cool, but it is a signal that the current forecast of upper 40s to upper 50s from NW to SE by Friday afternoon may be too warm. Regardless, nearly the entire range of forecast highs in the model suite would result in Friday being the coolest day for the area so far this Fall season. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 147 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 As the mid-level trough across the Upper Midwest slides eastward, ridging filters into the area along with a surface high moving south out of the Upper Midwest on Friday. The surface high is set to arrive by Friday night, working to reinforce calm winds, drier low- level air, and a mostly clear sky across the area this weekend. This will set the stage for efficient radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to reach the 30s areawide both Saturday and Sunday nights. The only exception being the St. Louis metro area that may struggle to cool into the 30s thanks to the urban heat island effect. Nearly all rural areas will at least approach the freezing mark this weekend with many locations having a good chance (>50%) to fall below freezing either night. Confidence is high that river valleys and low-lying areas across the region, where cold air drainage is greatest, will see the first freeze of the season. With 850mb temps near 5C this weekend, highs are forecast to be in the 50s to low 60s each afternoon. By next week, mid-level ridging should remain in place keeping the area dry through at least the first half of the week. In fact, guidance is in good agreement with less than a 10% chance for any rain until next Thursday. A gradual warming trend is expected and revealed by LREF IQRs that become centered on values that slightly above seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1026 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 Clouds will continue to lift and scatter out throughout Thursday morning and into the afternoon allowing for VFR conditions at all terminals, except KUIN. A cold front is expected to move southeast through the region Thursday bringing lower and increased cloud cover, which will cause MVFR conditions to return to the by Thursday evening. Behind the cold front there remains a slight chance (~15%) of showers or sprinkles Thursday night, but confidence is low that terminals will be impacted. Right at the end of the TAF period, some guidance shows that ceilings could drop further to fuel alternates, but confidence is too low that far out. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Peine LONG TERM...Peine AVIATION...Asel/Britt