Hardscrabble Snow Report

353 FXUS63 KLSX 250806 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 306 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures are expected through Saturday before summertime heat likely returns Sunday into early next week. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast Wednesday afternoon/evening. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds the main threat. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 Weak low-level moisture convergence in parts of central/southeast Missouri may yield a few "sunrise surprise" showers early this morning, though most guidance keeps the area dry. Any chance should quickly wane within a few hours after sunrise as the low-level jet weakens. Dry weather is then expected areawide for the rest of the day with variable cloudiness. Temperatures are forecast to warm well into the 80s by this afternoon, back closer to normal for late August and quite a bit warmer than yesterday. Milder readings are also forecast tonight due to increasing mid/high level cloudiness and light southerly flow. Lows are forecast to only drop back into the mid 60s to near the 70 degree mark. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 (Wednesday - Wednesday Night) Scattered showers and (elevated) thunderstorms are expected in southeast Missouri Wednesday morning as a midlevel shortwave trough moves across the area with weak low-level moisture convergence. This activity should move south with time. While the low-level jet abates, the midlevel wave may be strong enough to keep convection going to near or just past midday. If that indeed happens, the storms could become more surface based and pose a damaging wind threat before they exit. There is low confidence in this happening however. A slow-moving cold front is expected to move through the area Wednesday afternoon through the early overnight hours as a longwave trough deepens across the Great Lakes. Large scale forcing for ascent is not particularly strong during this time period, though there is some weak diffluence aloft along with some cooling. Surface convergence is also on the weak side along the boundary itself, but overall lift is expected to be strong enough to overcome some capping (CINH 50-100 J/kg) in place. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms however may stay isolated to widely scattered right near the front itself. The environment does not look particularly favorable for organized convection, but there may be just enough instability in the presence of moderately strong (~30 knots) deep- layer shear to produce a couple of strong-severe storms capable of producing 60 mph winds. The latest HREF shows some pockets of 40- 50+% probabilities for at least 25 knots of shear and SBCAPE of 1000+ J/kg near the boundary. (Thursday - Saturday Night) A period of near to below normal temperatures along with dry conditions is forecast to end the week and start the weekend as a surface ridge of high pressure settles into the mid-Mississippi Valley. The coolest period of time is expected to be between Thursday night and Friday night. Lows each night are expected to be in the low to mid 60s each night, with some spots quite possibly in the upper 50s. Highs on Friday should predominantly be in the mid 80s. (Sunday - Monday) All signs to a fast warmup to end the weekend into early next week as the mid/upper level ridge amplifies and moves into the Mississippi Valley. The air mass looks pretty warm with 850-hPa temperatures likely above +20C (>90th percentile). Surface dewpoints (relative humidity) levels also look to climb by early next week into the low 70s (75th-90th percentile). High temperatures well into the 90s seem quite plausible with heat index values potentially in the 100-105F range at least for portions of the area. In other words, while the calendar will turn to September next week, summer may not be giving up its grip. There is more confidence in increasing heat in southern sections of the area at this point in time due to the likely position of the ridge across the mid south. Across northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois, the spread in high temperatures is higher due to at least some potential for a frontal boundary to be in the area as well as "ridge-runners"/waves of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 938 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Confidence remains high in dry and VFR flight conditions through the period at all local terminals. There is a very low chance of patches of fog tonight but scattered cloud cover is expected to greatly limit fog development. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gosselin LONG TERM...Gosselin AVIATION...Elmore