Hardscrabble snow report

895 FXUS63 KLSX 130725 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 225 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable summer heat and humidity is expected for several days with highs returning to the 90s. Heat index values approach 100-105 Thursday through Saturday. - Most locations will remain dry with precipitation chances limited to the southern sections of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 An unprecedented upper level ridge is building over the Upper Midwest today with 500mb heights reaching around 600 dam. This ridge draws many parallels to the July 1995 heat wave with record temperatures possible across the northern U.S. While this brings attention to the northern U.S., 500mb heights reach the 90th percentile along the I-70 corridor and near the 99th percentile around KUIN. The upper ridge is vertically stacked over mid-level heights of similar percentiles, resulting in persistent, unidirectional easterly flow. Fortunately, in this scenario, the ridge is displaced further north than the July 1995 event. With the local region on the southern cusp of the ridge, easterly flow will help stave off higher dewpoints more typical with a southwesterly flow component. Deep subsidence is expected to secure a dry and warm start to the week. Today`s dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s aren`t necessarily considered a dry heat, but more manageable than 70s. Highs in the mid to upper 80s will barely register a heat index for a relatively comfortable afternoon by mid-summer standards. On Tuesday, a cutoff upper level disturbance retrogrades west- northwest over the Gulf States, placing the area at its northern fringes. This pulls dewpoints back into the 70s from east to west with a slight increase in temperatures. Tuesday feels a little less comfortable than today and while global guidance differs slightly on the northward extent of the system and resulting precipitation chances, the dry lean in the hi-res guidance makes more sense given the subsidence that would have to be overcome to produce any sensible precipitation potential. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 The long range pattern is one of persistence and comparison to climatological means with subtle details having an increasing influence on local conditions. The period will generally be characterized by increasing moisture and small step increases in temperatures each day through the end of the period. The best chances for rain (20-40%) come Wednesday afternoon over southeast Missouri, but this may be overdone. Global guidance is in decent agreement with weakening the northern ridge from its record-level heights over the second half of the week as it takes on a southeast to northwest orientation through the Midwest. NBM data shows small IQR spread (<5 degrees) through Saturday before increasing slightly Sunday. Multiple vort features rotate around the southwestern edge of the upper ridge, while some semblance of mid-level ridging remains. The difference comes in the late week period when the northern mid-level ridging breaks down and gives way to a strengthening mid-level ridge over the Gulf. Easterly flow veers out of the south/southwest, drawing moisture in from the western Gulf. Temperatures in the 90s, combined with dewpoints in the 70s will make conditions a little less comfortable with afternoon heat index values approaching 100 degrees along and east of the Mississippi River Wednesday. This trends continues through the week with an expansion of highs in the 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range by the end of the week. This may approach heat advisory criteria using the 4 day rule of 100+ heat indices. The limiting factor is both Wednesday and Sunday, when HI values are rather limited coverage and marginal compared to Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period with light winds. The only exception will be patchy river fog that will affect SUS between 08-12Z. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Maples LONG TERM...Maples AVIATION...Britt