Peek'n Peak Ski Area Snow Report

259 FXUS61 KPBZ 040533 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 133 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Timing of showers and thunderstorms on Friday appears to have shifted to early afternoon, then another wave overnight into early Saturday. Damaging wind gusts and hail remain possible. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rounds of showers and storms continue through Saturday with associated severe weather threats. A cold front brings dry weather back to the area Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The strong ridging that has sat entrenched across the Southeast this week weakens and begins shifting back west over the Plains in response to low pressure deepening off the New England and eastern Canada Atlantic coast. This doesn`t change the pattern over the local area much as we remain locked between these features under deep-layer northwest flow. Thunderstorms currently forming over the upper Great Lakes are forecast to organize into a line/MCS and advance southeast across the Great Lakes overnight through Friday morning and into the local area early Friday afternoon, according to timing in the latest convective-allowing model runs. If that timing ends up verifying, it`ll coincide with peak heating/instability and storms will therefore carry another risk for damaging wind gusts and hail (highlighted by another Storm Prediction Center slight risk of severe weather -- level 2 out of 5 -- for the local area on Friday). As the first wave of storms moves through the area early Friday afternoon, another wave is progged to fire upstream over the Michigan LP and central Great Lakes. That wave is then forecast to move southeast towards the local area late Friday night. While surface-based instability will be limited due to the loss of daytime heating, model soundings suggest plenty of elevated instability and even some dry air aloft capable of supporting a continued damaging wind gust and hail threat. There is some uncertainty regarding how far east the second round makes it, as the ridge should be retreating to the west at that point and deep-layer northwest flow becomes a bit more NNWerly. Some CAMs suggest that causes the Friday night convection to dive south across central Ohio, staying mostly to our west. Will need to see how the day evolves before gaining confidence in that track and where impacts may be felt. By the time storms depart to our south Saturday morning, a cold front should begin making its way into the area from the north. Some additional showers and storms could fire along the front during the afternoon, mainly along/south of I-70. Behind the front, drier air and more seasonable temperatures return through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A narrow line of thunderstorms is moving across the BVI/PIT/AGC area to start the TAF period and will impact LBE within the next hour or two. Aside from that, dry weather expected overnight with patchy fog and low stratus possible especially in places that are able to clear out and places that saw the heaviest rainfall over the past 12-24 hours. Heading into the day tomorrow, another MCS is expected to potentially move through the area mainly during early afternoon hours. Have used a few PROB30s in the 16Z to 22Z timeframe for restrictions getting below IFR in most cases. Winds through the period are expected to be light and variable expect for areas near thunderstorms. Outlook... Restrictions are possible into Friday night as another mesoscale convective complex has the chance of moving through. This will provide some additional restrictions in addition to any fog developing. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cermak AVIATION...Cermak