Ski Butternut snow report

283 FXUS61 KALY 150608 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 208 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Will continue to mention patchy to areas of smoke today and added smoke for Thursday. This is due to active wildfires in south central Canada. The west-northwest wind trajectory will continue to be favorable to bring smoke into the Northeast. As a result of the smoke, temperatures for today were lowered from the NBM by a few degrees. Added slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon across far southern areas, as a cold front tracks southward across the region today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Adirondacks, Lake George region into southern Vermont into early this morning. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. 2) Hot temperatures will lead to an increased risk for heat- related illnesses across southern parts of the area today. 3) Unsettled weather returns for the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely by Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Severe thunderstorm watch #490 remains in effect for Hamilton, Warren, Washington, Bennington and Windham Counties through 7 AM today. One supercell T-storm that moved through northern Hamilton county earlier weakened. Additional storms have developed, although it is questionable how far south these will propagate into the S. ADKs into S. VT. Even though a low level inversion has developed, there is quite a bit of CAPE aloft, with 1000-1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE noted on the SPC Mesoanalysis, with steep mid level lapse rates and 40-50 kt of effective shear. This environment continues to be conducive for some discrete supercells, with large the main threat along with some potential for damaging winds. The main forcing does remain north, so activity should be widely scattered in our area. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, although is not a primary threat due to the low level inversion. As a cold front/dewpoint boundary will continue to push southward across our region today, the front moving through southern parts of the area during peak heating may result in an isolated shower/T- storm in mainly Dutchess/Litchfield Counties. Coverage expected to be limited though, as moisture decreases through the day. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cool front resulting in slightly cooler temperatures, but also noticeable lower humidity levels, will move across the region through today. 850 mb temperatures will not be as warm as Tue, at +18C to +20C. However, as dewpoints lower behind the front, deeper mixing will develop. It will be warmest in southern areas, with expected highs in the lower/mid 90s, with upper 80s to near 90F farther north. NBM temperatures were lowered a few degrees though due to the presence of smoke, which will likely inhibit some warming/mixing. Humidity levels will decrease this afternoon, although the hottest temperatures will occur this afternoon. So peak heat indices of 95-98F are expected in parts E. Ulster, Dutchess and S. Litchfield counties where a Heat Advisory remains in effect. While temperatures will still be above normal through Thu, humidity levels will be noticeably lower with dewpoints mainly in the 50s. Temperatures expected to cool to near normal levels Fri through early next week. KEY MESSAGE 3... Other than some widely scattered showers and non-severe T-storms north of the Capital District on Thu associated with a weakening front, it will be dry across much of the area. Dry conditions will persist into Fri as high pressure builds in. Better likelihood for showers/T-storms looks to occur Sat into Sat night, as a low pressure system and potent short wave aloft move across the area. This will be first chance for widespread precip since last week. The system looks to exit to our east on Sun, although a few additional showers/T-storms will be possible as an upper trough lingers. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected into this morning. However, widely scattered TSRA ahead of an approaching cold front could bring brief MVFR/IFR Vsbys to KGFL between 07Z-10Z. After 12z today, areas of haze/smoke from Canadian wildfires will could bring some reductions in vsby mainly during the afternoon, especially at KALB, KPSF and KPOU. Will mention mainly 6SM vsby with haze. There is a chance for patchy MVFR vsby during this time should some slightly thicker surface based smoke extend to the TAF sites. Winds will become west-northwest and increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt developing. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy Smoke. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ013. NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064>066. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ038. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...24/07