Spicy Run Mountain Snow Report

526 FXUS63 KDTX 020708 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 308 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers end early this morning, with developing sunshine today. Cool tonight with mins mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s. - A pleasant weekend with highs in the low to mid 60s on Saturday and around 70 degrees on Sunday. A low chance of showers late Saturday night into Sunday morning (primarily near Saginaw Bay). - Dry weather continues early next week, with chilly lows in the 30s to near 40 possible Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... A fast, progressive flow will persist over the northern CONUS over the next week, although a deeper trough does look to develop over New England on Monday. Rain looks to be coming to end by around 8 AM, with the 850 MB theta- e ridge already well southeast of the state. A shortwave trough is working through the northern Great Lakes this morning, with an impressive mid level dry slot arriving, as 700 MB dew pt depressions reach 30 to 50 C by day`s end. Expansive high pressure builds in tonight, with the center of the high (1028 MB) parked over northern Lower Michigan by 12z Saturday. NBM temps on are on the colder side. With this morning`s rainfall soaking the ground and a lack of strong dry advection near the surface, surface dew pts are expected to remain solidly above freezing; thus, no frost is expected. In fact, there is more concern with northerly flow off Lake Huron leading to low clouds over the eastern Thumb region, keeping overnight mins elevated above 40 degrees. Slow return flow around the departing high on Saturday, but backed southeast surface flow should keep temps in the low to mid 60s, slightly below normal. The next Pacific shortwave currently along the southern British Columbia coast on track to move into the central Great Lake Saturday night, with the cold front moving through on Sunday. The greatest height falls and forcing will be directed toward Saginaw Bay. Euro ensembles suggests significantly higher pops for the northern half of the CWA than the dry outgoing NBM pops. Nonetheless, GFS does show the moisture axis (850-700 MB theta-e ridge) getting strung out and weakening/drying up as it moves through Lower Michigan. Outside of the low chance pops late Saturday night into Sunday morning, dry weather will be the rule early next week as upper level confluent flow supports another round of good subsidence and strong high pressure building over Lower Michigan. This high brings a better chance for temps to fall into the 30s for Tuesday morning. However, Euro ensemble members are mainly indicating mins aoa 40 degrees. && .MARINE... Widespread rain associated with a cold front will exit southeast of Lake Erie late this morning. Post frontal shallow cold air advection along the lead edge of expansive high pressure over the northern Plains will result in increasing north-northwest winds today. Available guidance suggests moderate to high probability for wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots across the open waters of Lake Huron. This will also help drive hazardous conditions to small craft across the Lake Huron nearshore waters today. The high pressure system will expand across the Great Lakes region tonight into Saturday, resulting in light winds. The rapid eastward departure of this high by Sunday will drive another frontal system into the region by the end of the weekend. This front will be moisture starved and generally weak, limiting weather conditions to just light rain chances. Its passage will be marked by a veering of the winds from south to west-northwest. Some uptick in the winds is expected over Lake Huron within the post frontal cold air advection. Available guidance indicates the winds remaining below gales. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1209 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 AVIATION... A feed of deep along a cold front that is clearing southeast Michigan will continue to bring extensive cloud coverage and rainfall. MVFR and IFR conditions are focused along and just behind the front that will continue to to bring light to moderate intervals of rainfall and potential IFR conditions before ceilings and visibility improves later this morning as dry air filters in behind the front. Light showers may linger through 12Z with NW to N winds taking over behind the front that will hold through remainder of this TAF period. Predominately VFR conditions expected after 12Z with SCT/BKN clouds down to around 3500 feet being supported in this afternoon. D21/DTW Convection...Low potential for thunderstorms through this forecast period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings below 5000 feet early this morning. * Low for thunderstorms. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-443. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ441-442. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......SC AVIATION.....AA You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.