Hydrologic Outlook
Until 2024-11-17T14:30:00-08:00 • National Weather Service
ESFEKA * WHAT...There is moderate to high model agreement that a strong and prolonged atmospheric river will impact NW California mid to late week. For the northern half of the area. Rain will be heaviest on Wednesday with 2 to 4 inches of rain most likely across the northern half of the area. High peaks in the King Range could see 6 to 8 inches of rain over 24 hours. Most models show more moderate but persistent rain continuing Thursday through next Saturday with most likely rainfall of 1 to 3 inches each day. Total Storm amounts could easily reach between 8 and 14 inches over 4 days. * WHERE...The greatest risk is for Humboldt and Del Norte Counties where soils are already near saturation. Rain will be lighter though still significant for Mendocino and Lake Counties, though generally drier soils will reduce the flood risk. Much of the precipitation in Trinity County will likely fall as snow with snow levels in the eastern half of the county as low as 2500 feet. * WHEN...Greatest risk of heavy rain during the day on Wednesday. More moderate but prolonged rain Thursday through Saturday. The forecast is more uncertain further out. Long range models show the potential for rain to continue into Thanksgiving Week. * IMPACTS...Such rain amounts will greatly increase the risk of flooding, especially for the northern half of the area where soils have already been saturated by previous rain events. Expect flooding on in low lying areas, areas with poor drainage, and increased risk of debris on roadways. Rivers will rapidly rise. Long range river forecasts indicate a 10 to 30% chance of rivers such as the Mad River, Eel River, and Smith River reaching monitor stage by Thursday. * Stay tuned to the weather forecast over the next couple days as forecast confidence and details will likely increase. Beyond rain, this storm is also expected to bring widespread damaging wind.
Until 2024-11-17T14:30:00-08:00 • National Weather Service
ESFEKA * WHAT...There is moderate to high model agreement that a strong and prolonged atmospheric river will impact NW California mid to late week. For the northern half of the area. Rain will be heaviest on Wednesday with 2 to 4 inches of rain most likely across the northern half of the area. High peaks in the King Range could see 6 to 8 inches of rain over 24 hours. Most models show more moderate but persistent rain continuing Thursday through next Saturday with most likely rainfall of 1 to 3 inches each day. Total Storm amounts could easily reach between 8 and 14 inches over 4 days. * WHERE...The greatest risk is for Humboldt and Del Norte Counties where soils are already near saturation. Rain will be lighter though still significant for Mendocino and Lake Counties, though generally drier soils will reduce the flood risk. Much of the precipitation in Trinity County will likely fall as snow with snow levels in the eastern half of the county as low as 2500 feet. * WHEN...Greatest risk of heavy rain during the day on Wednesday. More moderate but prolonged rain Thursday through Saturday. The forecast is more uncertain further out. Long range models show the potential for rain to continue into Thanksgiving Week. * IMPACTS...Such rain amounts will greatly increase the risk of flooding, especially for the northern half of the area where soils have already been saturated by previous rain events. Expect flooding on in low lying areas, areas with poor drainage, and increased risk of debris on roadways. Rivers will rapidly rise. Long range river forecasts indicate a 10 to 30% chance of rivers such as the Mad River, Eel River, and Smith River reaching monitor stage by Thursday. * Stay tuned to the weather forecast over the next couple days as forecast confidence and details will likely increase. Beyond rain, this storm is also expected to bring widespread damaging wind.
