Cataloochee Ski Area Snow Report

452 FXUS64 KMRX 220605 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 205 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 159 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight through Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds aren`t out of the question, but overall severe chances are low. Additionally, some localized flooding could also occur, but again chances are relatively low. - Tuesday will be the last day with well above normal temperatures. Wednesday will feature near-normal temperatures as a pattern shift occurs, with below normal temperatures expected Thursday onward. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 Over the next 48 hours a rex block pattern will take shape over the eastern CONUS, with an upper low deepening over the Ohio valley and central Appalachian region and the upper high to its north strengthening over the Canadian side of the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure develops beneath the ridge over the Great Lakes which will help to push a weak front, which was situated from West Virginia southwest into the Cumberland Plateau this evening, southward through the area sometime late Tuesday afternoon and evening. All of this will result in continued scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity across the region through late Wednesday evening, with the best coverage during diurnally favored daytime hours but also with lingering convection during the overnight hours. For Tuesday, with the boundary slowly shifting south, the threat of any strong to severe storms should largely be relegated to the far southern TN valley and our western NC counties. However, PWATs will remain elevated through Wednesday, and storm motions very slow, so an isolated flooding threat could exist virtually anywhere through that period, though in general the risk of flooding should shift south with time as well. Speaking of Wednesday, the pattern change really gets underway late Wednesday. The upper low associated with the rex block pattern, dives east southeast to the coastal Carolina region Wednesday night into Thursday, allowing for persistent northerly flow to spread across the CWA, ushering in significantly cooler and drier air. We`ll still be warm on Wednesday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s south of I-40. But Thursday through the weekend will see highs topping out largely in the 70s, except the far southern TN valley which may still manage to best the 80 degree mark each day. Perhaps the more important note will be overnight lows in the 40s and 50s Friday night onward. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 159 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will impact TYS and TRI for the first few hours of the TAF. CHA should remain VFR as storms remain north of the terminal overnight. After showers and storms exit, there could be a short window of fog at TRI just prior to sunrise, but any clearing in sky cover may support sub-MVFR vsby. Additional thunderstorms develop this afternoon and will be scattered in coverage. Additional TAFs will refine the timing for each terminal. Showers and storms linger until Tuesday evening before dissipating. VFR conditions return for the last few hours of the TAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 68 86 65 / 70 30 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 67 82 64 / 70 50 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 86 66 82 63 / 70 40 70 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 63 77 58 / 80 70 80 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...CD AVIATION...BH