Big Rock Snow Report

012 FXUS61 KCAR 240707 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 307 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Lowered dew points for this afternoon, overall dropping minimum RHs to around 40 percent thanks to well modeled dry adiabatic lapse rates up to 850mb. - Increasing confidence in marine impacts. - Gale Watches upgraded to Gale Warnings, issued Small Craft Advisory for intra-coastal waters, and High Surf Advisory for coastal Hancock County. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A coastal low will impact at least Downeast Maine late this week bringing gusty winds, high surf, and rain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A coastal low will impact at least Downeast Maine late this week bringing gusty winds, high surf, and rain. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A coastal low is expected to develop across the Mid-Atlantic region late this week while high pressure remains centered over Quebec. The timing and track of the ocean low is still uncertain with blocking high pressure to the northwest of our forecast area and ridging across the Great Lakes. Latest guidance has the rain entering the area during the early part of the weekend. There is still uncertainty of how close the low pressure will pass to the coast which will determine the amount of precip that reaches inland. Regardless, northerly to northeasterly winds will become gusty over the weekend, especially along the coast, as a tight pressure gradient forms. General trend currently is that the low pressure system will continue to stay south of the region due to the high pressure, with majority of the rain staying over the waters and the Downeast region. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Today...Before 12z possible BR/FG to reduce vsby at a few terms. But mainly SKC. Today expecting SKC with light N winds. Tonight...SKC becoming high cigs at BHB but SKC all other sites. Cannot rule out some BR/FG. Light and variable winds. Friday...VFR. High cigs. NE winds 5-10kt with gusts up to 20kt for BGR and BHB. Friday night...VFR. MVFR possible late at BHB. Chance of rain developing late at BHB. NE winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt for BGR and BHB. Aroostook terms expect N-NNE winds 5-15kt. Saturday - Monday...VFR north. VFR/MVFR Downeast with likely rain. Across northern areas, N/NE winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming NE Sunday. Across Downeast areas, N/NE winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20-25 knots at KBGR, and 30 knots possible at KBHB Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Winds diminish Sunday night back to 10 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... Northeast wind gusts up to 25kt this morning through midday for the waters 25-60nm offshore. Winds below SCA for the intra- coastal and coastal waters. Southerly swells building to 4-6ft over the waters 25-60nm offshore this afternoon with 2-4ft seas over the coastal waters and 1-3ft on the intra-coastal waters. Northeast winds increase to Gales late tonight into Friday, winds peaking around 45 knots in the outer waters and around 40 knots in the coastal waters by Friday night. A Gale Warning is now in effect from 2AM on Friday in outer waters and from 11AM in coastal waters and will persist through at least 8PM Sunday night. Gales remain possible in the intracoastal waters, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Peak wave heights in the outer waters will be around 11ft to 16ft, and around 7ft to 12ft in the coastal waters. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal Hancock County where large waves could pose a rip current risk and impact people on rock outcrops. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MEZ015>017. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for MEZ029. MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ080- 081. && $$ DISCUSSION...JS/JMM/CM AVIATION...JS/JMM/CM