Big Rock Snow Report

400 FXUS61 KCAR 170700 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - WPC has removed the marginal risk ERO for our area Saturday night. - Added patchy to areas of smoke to the forecast on Saturday in response to new wildfire smoke expected to drift into the region from the SW. Added this into the aviation section as well. - Added a Gale Watch for the offshore waters Saturday night. - Added a Beach Hazard Statement for the Downeast Coast today from 8AM-8PM. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and storms will return late Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday, with locally heavy rain possible Sunday night. 2) Wildfire smoke plume to our south will lift back north into Maine Saturday into Saturday evening potentially resulting in lower visibility. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms will return late Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday, with locally heavy rain possible Sunday night. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The next chance for showers and storms is this weekend as a strengthening low pressure moves in from the Great Lakes region. Could see some showers ahead of the main show as early as Saturday afternoon in warm advection ahead of the primary cold front. Not expecting anything in this timeframe to amount to much, and there certainly won`t be much (if any) instability to work with. The real surge of moisture, comes late in the evening into Saturday night, just ahead of the actual cold front/surface low itself. Dew points jump into the 60a at the surface, and there will be an abundance of moisture aloft as well, yielding PWATs of 1.50+ inches, which is > 90th percentile for this time of year. This will likely result in some Locally heavy rainfall, with the greatest concern being the potential for cells to train over the same area. However, this system should be traversing the region rather quickly, so don`t see a substantial flash flood threat, thus WPC has actually dropped the region out of the Marginal ERO from before. QPF amounts range from 0.80-1 inch from Katahdin to Houlton north with 0.50-0.75 inches to the south. Localized higher amounts are possible if we do get any training elements. KEY MESSAGE 2...Wildfire smoke plume to our south will lift back north into Maine Saturday into Saturday evening potentially resulting in lower visibility. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Large wildfires continue to burn in Ontario near the Great Lakes and additional fires in Manitoba are adding to the smoke plume. This significant plume of wildfire smoke at the near surface levels continues to be south of New England today. However, with the approaching storm system Saturday it will feature a warm front lifting north. As the warm front lifts north expect the smoke plume to lift north as well. Latest HRRR, RAP and RRFS smoke models shows patchy smoke reaching the Downeast coast and Bangor region by Noon Saturday then towards evening expecting patchy smoke across the north with areas of smoke (potentially thick) for the Central Highlands, Bangor Region and Downeast Coast. Expecting this to continue into Saturday evening till the shower activity becomes numerous and widespread then smoke will dissipate. The latest Air Quality Forecast from the Maine Department of Environmental Protection shows Moderate particle pollution is expected. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Today and Tonight...VFR. NW winds 5-15kts gusting to 20-25kts, becoming light overnight. Saturday...Patchy smoke could reduce visibilities by Saturday morning, potentially to MVFR conditions at times, particularly in the south. Then MVFR BHB, BGR and possibly HUL in -shra later in the afternoon. S winds 5-15kts. Saturday night...MVFR/IFR in locally heavy rainfall and storms. S winds 10-20kts. LLWS possible. Sunday-Sunday night...VFR/MVFR. NW winds 10-20kts gusting to 25kts, then becoming W 5-10kts overnight. Monday-Tuesday...Mainly VFR. W winds 5-10kts, becoming S Tuesday morning 5-15ts gusting to 20kts. && .MARINE... Winds remain below SCA criteria with seas around 2-4 feet through Saturday afternoon. Winds pick up out of the south Saturday evening and seas rise to 5-8 feet by early Sunday morning, so SCAs are likely during this timeframe. Cannot rule out gale force winds over the open waters from 25-60NM Saturday night. Have issued a Gale Watch with this forecast cycle as a result. Seas drop below 5ft by Sunday evening and remain below small craft levels through Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for ANZ080-081. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJL/JS AVIATION...CJL/JS