Hidden Valley Ski Area Snow Report

134 FXUS63 KLSX 140759 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 259 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weakening thunderstorms continue to move through the area this morning with activity on the downward trend my late morning. - Another round of thunderstorms moves into the area late tonight into Thursday. There is isolated damaging wind potential with the strongest cells. - A strong cold front brings much cooler and drier conditions late week into the first half of next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 216 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Thunderstorms will continue to move through the area early this morning. The airmass was recently worked over by an initial cluster, which sent outflow well south of I-70 between 06z-07z. A second line has entered the area and is expected to impact on southern sections of the CWA before overall activity wanes later this morning into the afternoon. The second cluster of thunderstorms continues to move west to east with ASOS observations at KCOU reporting gusts of 32 knots (0615z) and KJEF peaking at 26 knots (0623z). Radar trends show the line becoming increasingly broken and outflow dominant. IR satellite also indicates warming in the cloud tops along with a decrease in lightning frequency. A few embedded thunderstorms remain possible with some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, along with a general southward shift in the better convective potential. The airmass remains undisturbed over parts of southeast MO and southwest IL with MUCAPE values of 1100-1300 J/kg and 30-35 knots of shear. Severe weather is not anticipated, however, as what remains is likely to be elevated. Trends continue to show precipitation potential exiting a little quicker as air become more stable over central/northeast MO and west- central IL around 12z and the remainder of the area trends in that direction as outflow shunts instability toward the AR border. An isolated shower remains possible, though much of the remainder of the day trends drier. Latest PoPs may still be a little high with further adjustment needed to lower probabilities, especially along and north of I-70. HREF ensemble guidance shows a wide range in total cloud coverage as upper ascent remain over the area. The question is whether we clear out enough and/or recover enough to produce addition, diurnally charged instability for afternoon thunderstorms along the front. As of now, the severe potential looks limited at best with low CAPE, less shear, and exit of early day upper ascent that supported the morning activity. Therefore, the day 1 marginal is not being messaged. Tonight into Thursday brings another round of thunderstorms, initially from the southwest, as a more potent vort max/shortwave tracks northeast from eastern KS through northern MO. This draws the warm sector back toward Hwy 36 (MO)/I-72 (IL) along with higher CAPE advecting northeastward into southeast and east-central MO and southwest IL. Timing looks to be key here, too, as the northward advancement of warm air gives rise to a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. The warm sector includes 40-50 knots of shear, though individual short range guidance varies on the magnitude of instability and mid-level lapse rates are weak. HREF shows the uncertainty with a wide IQR spread, but even the 75th percentile is around 1000-1200 J/kg. If thunderstorms can intensify enough, isolated damaging winds are the primary threat. Tornadoes look unlikely as the warm air advances north of the CWA little to no backing in the wind. Latest RAP guidance shows almost no turning in the hodographs with unidirectional flow as the cold front quickly advances west to east through late evening. Short/medium range guidance is in good agreement with the cold front advancing from KUIN/KCOU around 02z to the metro around 05z and east of the area around 08z or so. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Much cooler and drier air will begin spilling into the region through Thursday night. Seasonably cool, below normal temperatures extend through the upcoming weekend before moderating back above normal early next week. A long wave trough advances east-southeast from the southern Canadian Provinces and over the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday morning. RAP guidance shows strong cold air advections with a 15-20C drop in mid-level temperatures as the axis over the trough crosses the region between 06z-12z. Behind the trough a strong surface high sets the the stage for northwesterly flow and rapidly cooling temperatures through Friday morning. Friday morning temperatures may even be somewhat deceiving for early-risers as southeast sections of the CWA remain in the 50s/low-60s, only to continue to cool as we progress through Friday morning. Temperatures aren`t likely to recover much from there with partial cloud cover and cold air advection. While both Friday and Saturday temperatures are fairly similar (mid-50s/low-60s). The primary focus will be on Saturday and Sunday morning lows as NBM guidance is likely too cold with mid-30s being too broadly represented. This is due in part to prior guidance showing the surface high overhead Saturday morning, which now is further west, centered over the eastern Plains. The surface high moves east into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic Region by Sunday morning. Suffice to say, some of the coolest fall temperatures will still be felt and the narrowing in the IQR data for each morning lends better confidence for low-40s being well represented with mid-30s confined to micro climate behavior that is typically more isolated. I would not be surprised to see NBM guidance inch upward with morning low over the next couple of days. The moderating trend continues into early next week, though there is enough spread (5-7 degrees) in the long range guidance to lower confidence in the magnitude of warmth. That said, most areas do return to the 70s Monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will affect the area for the remainder of the night. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts to 35-40kts and IFR visibilities in locally heavy rain. The cold front which triggered these storms will drift southeast into the area and stall near the I-70 corridor by late Wednesday morning. Ceilings are expected to fall to below 2000 ft Wednesday morning across much of the area, and some scattered IFR ceilings are also possible, but confidence in widespread IFR remains low. Some improvement in ceiling heights is possible Wednesday afternoon, though bases will likely remain at or below 3000 ft. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Maples LONG TERM...Maples AVIATION...Carney