Hidden Valley Ski Area Snow Report

075 FXUS63 KLSX 090335 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 1035 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - It will be hot and humid Sunday through Wednesday next week. Heat index readings between 100-104 are expected for parts of the area Sunday. Monday through Wednesday will see the heat index increase to 105+ for much of the area Monday through Wednesday. - The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases late Wednesday into Thursday, with the possibility of scattered showers and storms continuing through the end of the week. This should bring an end to this latest round of hot and humid weather. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026 An upper level ridge over the western CONUS will control our weather for the next few days. This will result in warm and humid weather through the short term, with only very slight chances for precipitation across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois through Sunday night. That chance for precipitation will mostly be late tonight into Sunday morning as low level warm advection increases east of a low pressure system over the Great Plains. Guidance is pretty insistent that most of the precip will stay over Iowa, but the tail end may scrape our far northern counties. Otherwise, warm and humid southerly flow increases Sunday with 850mb temperatures increasing to 20-22C. This mixes down to 91- 95F at the surface which agrees well with high temperature guidance for tomorrow. Humidity looks marginal to get heat index values above 104 tomorrow afternoon, which would be needed to make 4 days (Sunday through Wednesday) for a durration-critieria Extreme Heat Warning. Will therefore not issue a warning this afternoon and continue the watch in case subsequent data points to higher heat index values tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 136 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026 The primary concern heading into next week continues to be potentially dangerous heat, at least through Wednesday. The eastern edge of the upper level ridge remains over the eastern Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley through the first half of the week. Deterministic guidance keeps the low level thermal ridge over Missouri and the southern 1/2 of Illinois through Wednesday with 850mb temperatures in the 22-25C range. This agrees well with the LREF mean through midweek, and forecast sounding show mixing at least that high in most locations. This mixes down to to mid and upper 90s for highs, perhaps kissing 100-102 in some locations. The NBM`s forecast highs have a good handle on this for the most part, though It may be a tad cool in northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. With the high humidity in place, HI values are 100-105+ area-wide at least on Monday and Tuesday. Confidence in 100+ HI values decreases Wednesday as a short wave rounds the eastern edge of the ridge and moves through the Mississippi Valley. The deterministic ECMWF and GFS print out QPF Wednesday afternoon between 18-00Z as this wave moves through. Afternoon convection would almost certainly put the kibosh on any heat headlines...however, the timing of that wave and potential convection is very uncertain at this time. If the wave is slower and Wednesday is dry, it will almost certainly be at least as warm and humid as Monday and Tuesday. The deterministic guidance diverges for the latter half of the week with the GFS digging a strong trough into the Ohio Valley which produces an amplified upper level pattern and pronounced northwest flow over the Mid Mississippi Valley. This pushes a cold front through Missouri and Illinois, and our area remains on the cool side of the boundary through Saturday. The ECMWF remains more zonal with a couple of much weaker short waves rippling by Thursday through Saturday. While both solutions show cooler conditions for Thursday through Saturday, there`s a lot of uncertainty in how much cooler it will actually be. High temperature IQRs in the LREF increase from around 5-6 degrees on Wednesday to 8-12 degrees Thursday. By Friday and Saturday the high temperature IQR increases to 10-15 degrees in many locations, and 15+ for some. The NBM looks to be about the middle of the temperature range with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s. These temperatures are entirely plausible, and I see no reason to deviate at this time given the uncertainties. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026 Tonight: All TAFs are currently VFR with only a few pockets of CU remaining. There is some decaying convection over eastern Nebraska/ western Iowa but this is not expected to hold together. Some high res guidance is also indicating that another round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to form tonight near the Kansas/ Missouri border as a wave at 700 mb moves northeast. The thinking is that this precipitation will again quickly weaken as it moves east away from the forcing and better moisture. Sunday: VFR with mid and high clouds moving from west to east in the morning hours. The pressure gradient does begin to increase in the afternoon hours with sustained winds 10 to 15 kt and transient wind gusts reaching 15 to 20 kt. No precipitation is expected. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening for MOZ041-047>051-059>065. IL...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening for ILZ069-074-079-100>102. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carney LONG TERM...Carney AVIATION...BAH/Maples