Hidden Valley Ski Area snow report

967 FXUS63 KLSX 070740 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 240 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rainfall are expected today and tomorrow across the area. - This afternoon, thunderstorms will be capable of isolated instances of damaging wind gusts across central and southeastern Missouri. - Heat and humidity build into the region Tuesday through Thursday, with highs reaching the 90s and heat index values near 100 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Monday Night) Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 Water vapor imagery this morning shows a cutoff upper-level low slowly moving east-northeastward across Kansas and Oklahoma. This cutoff is providing weak lift that is pairing with a subtle low- level jet to produce the ongoing showers across portions of western and central Missouri. As this cutoff continues its east-northeastward trajectory through the day, instability will build over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Both the 00z HREF and REFS show 1,500-2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the CWA during peak heating; primarily focused over central and southeastern Missouri. Here, deep-layer shear is progged to be greater than it has been in days past, with guidance consensus showing 25-30 kts across the same portion of the CWA. While the instability and nebulous forcing from the cutoff will lead to a threat of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rainfall this afternoon across the entire CWA, the environment over central and southeastern Missouri will be particularly favorable for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. The primary severe threat here is damaging wind gusts. Confidence is low in severe-sized hail thanks to skinny CAPE profiles in the hail growth zone noted in several deterministic soundings, and tornadoes are not expected thanks to weak low-level shear. Convective coverage and strength will diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating, though the nebulous forcing from the cutoff aloft will keep the chance for isolated showers and weak thunderstorms going through the overnight hours. Tomorrow, the cutoff will begin to shear apart over the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley, with its southern portion slowly moving into the Ohio Valley. With enough of the cutoff still overhead through the day, nebulous lift paired with roughly 2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE will produce another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Despite an uptick in instability, deep-layer shear is forecast to not be as robust compared to today. Therefore, confidence is very low in a threat of severe thunderstorms, and we will hold off on publicly messaging the SPC Day 2 Marginal. Elmore && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Saturday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 The cutoff/shortwave that has been plaguing the area through the weekend and early week period will be departing the Middle Mississippi Valley eastward on Tuesday per guidance consensus. There is a low chance (30%) that the wave will still be close enough to the CWA during peak heating to produce isolated to scattered convection across south-central Illinois. The main story with the departing wave will be upper-level ridging building into the Midwest, giving the region its first taste of summer-like heat and humidity. Tuesday is expected to be notably muggier than Monday, with ensemble high temperatures clustering around 90 degrees. Confidence is increasing that this heat will peak on Wednesday, though to what degree remains uncertain. Guidance varies enough on the strength of the ridge against a trough moving eastward across the central CONUS to produce a roughly 5-degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentile of ensemble temperatures. Relatively cooler solutions thanks to a stronger trough would keep temperatures similar to those forecast on Tuesday, while a stronger ridge will yield a several degree bump. The current forecast/NBM continues to favor the latter solution, and this should be seen as a reasonable worst-case scenario. From Thursday through Saturday, guidance consensus is that the upper- level trough expands eastward as it broadens, pushing the ridge southward. A leading shortwave within the trough will send a cold front through the Middle Mississippi Valley sometime late Thursday or Friday. This front will bring an end to the forecasted heat as we move into the weekend, with a majority of ensemble guidance signaling a notable drop in temperatures. Elmore && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have dissipated across the region this evening and a largely dry forecast will prevail into the morning hours. During this time, VFR flight conditions will prevail and winds will be variable and largely less than 5 knots. While guidance previously was quite bullish with MVFR ceilings moving into the region overnight and into tomorrow morning, low level dry air and diminishing precipitation will keep ceilings VFR for much of the TAF period. The exception will be with any showers and thunderstorms that develop tomorrow afternoon and evening across the area. Where these develop MVFR ceilings and a brief reduction in visibility to MVFR conditions are expected. Confidence is highest in precipitation falling at the mid-Missouri terminals and KUIN, where a PROB30 group has been introduced during the afternoon hours, though precipitation could fall outside this window as well. Confidence in the timing of precipitation within the St. Louis metro terminals is much lower. So while showers and thunderstorms are possible (30-40% chance) throughout much of the day across the metro area, there isn`t a strong enough signal to outline in the TAF at this point. Delia && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX