Hidden Valley Ski Area Snow Report

091 FXUS63 KLSX 040459 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 1059 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will exit the area this evening. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms remains in place for much of the area, with confidence in these severe storms developing the greatest in NE MO and west-central IL. - A pair of cold fronts will move through the area tonight and again on Thursday, dropping temperatures to near seasonal normals by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 214 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 As of 20z, a nearly stacked cyclone was centered over north-central Missouri. The primary cold front associated with this low extended to the southwest into extreme SE KS and eastern OK, with a secondary cold front reaching south/southeast of the low into south-central MO along the leading edge of the dry slot. The atmosphere ahead of the secondary front is characterized by relatively high dewpoints and SSE surface winds. Accordingly, there is 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern MO and western IL. With effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kts and 0-1km shear in the 30-40 kt range, the atmosphere remains at least marginally supportive for severe storms capable of producing damaging winds or a tornado or two. However, up to this point, areas ahead of the secondary front have remained capped, significantly limiting the ability for these showers to develop into thunderstorms. Between the fronts mentioned above, the atmosphere is less capped, but dewpoints are lower, surface winds are out of the SSW, and the low level jet is weaker. This points to an atmosphere less favorable for severe storms, especially those capable of producing tornadoes. While we still may see a few thunderstorms develop in these areas given strong forcing associated with the approach of the primary front and vorticity advection associated with the upper low, my confidence in severe storms occurring is low given the above limiting factors. If severe storms were to develop, they would very likely be along the secondary cold front, where deeper forcing and an uncapped atmosphere meet up with deeper moisture and more robust wind shear. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 214 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 Additional low level moisture will wrap back into the region overnight on the back side of the low, which will reintroduce low clouds and perhaps some drizzle by tomorrow morning. Dry, westerly winds will gradually bring in cooler temperatures and scour this moisture through the day tomorrow, allowing skies to become more broken or scattered as we approach sunset, resulting in notably cooler temperatures tomorrow night and Thursday morning. On Thursday, an upper trough will traverse the middle CONUS, driving another cold front through the Middle Mississippi Valley. Guidance appears to be in relatively good consensus on frontal timing, with the front arriving in our northern CWA around midday and pushing through the CWA by late evening. Moisture return ahead of the front looks fairly weak, so precipitation chances along the front are fairly low (< 25%). If it does rain, amounts will be light, given the limited moisture. What will be more notable is that temperatures are expected to drop behind the front, with the current forecast calling for temperatures around seasonal normals. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will take hold on Friday and Saturday. This will result in gradually clearing skies and weakening winds. These factors, coupled with the cooler and drier airmass in pace behind the late-week fropa, will set the stage for at least some areas within CWA to approach of fall below freezing, especially on Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1059 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 A cold front is moving through MO with a line of showers ahead of it slowly making their way east through IL. As the front moves through and the showers continue to exit the region, winds will continue to die down and turn more westerly advecting lower ceilings back to the area making MVFR more common by the early morning hours on Wednesday. There is a small chance that some residual moisture behind the front will cause drizzle that would impact the terminals causing lower visibilities, but confidence is too low to include visibilities below 6 miles. By Wednesday afternoon, clouds are expected to begin lifting and scattering, returning terminals to VFR conditions thanks to high pressure moving into the region. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BSH LONG TERM...BSH AVIATION...Asel/Pfahler