Jay Peak Snow Report

189 FXUS61 KBTV 260635 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 235 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 233 AM EDT Saturday... No significant changes have been made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 233 AM EDT Saturday... 1. A Nor`easter will continue to move along the coast, bringing chances for showers and breezy winds this weekend, but the strongest impacts will remain over southern New England. 2. Seasonable, mainly dry weather continues through late week && .DISCUSSION... As of 233 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1: A Nor`easter centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast will be the main weather feature this weekend, with our region on the periphery of the system and more impactful weather further south towards the coast. Several rain bands will move across southern Vermont and try to make their way further north, but drier air across the region will limit their progress and how much precipitation is expected. Throughout the weekend, southern Vermont will see the most precipitation after several rounds of showers, but further north look to remain drier. The system will slowly exit the region later this weekend into the start of next week, bringing greater precipitation chances for Sunday into Monday before drier conditions return towards Tuesday. In addition to the precipitation, a strong jet looks to bring gusty winds to the region, particularly tonight into Sunday, with the greatest concern across the western slopes in southern Vermont and summit levels. Temperatures will be on the cooler side as well, especially for Sunday and Monday with clouds and periods of showers expected, especially across southern and eastern Vermont. KEY MESSAGE 2: No impactful weather is expected for the middle to later portions of next week. The Nor`easter currently affecting southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic region will exist in a much weakened state by Tuesday night and be in the process of exiting northeast into the westerlies away from our region as skies trend partly cloudy. Thereafter, weak high pressure mainly controls regional weather conditions for the Wed-Thu time frame with daily highs warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This morning`s GFS depiction of a rather sharp northern stream trough feature and scattered/numerous showers passing through the area Wednesday evening appears overdone. This solution has little support from other output which seems reasonable given weak baroclinicity evident in 925-850 hPa thermal profiles and I`ve offered mainly a dry weather through this time frame. By Friday a somewhat more pronounced cold front appears poised to swing through the region. Again, moisture is rather starved with this feature, so precipitation chances will be generally held in the 20-40% range. Behind the front, slightly cooler air arrives for next weekend, but values should remain within 5 degrees of seasonal early October norms. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours under thickening mid to high level clouds. Winds light through 12Z, trending north to northeasterly 6-12 knots thereafter with occasional gustiness into the 15-20 kt range this afternoon. Some northeasterly LLWS from 35-40 kts will begin to push northward into the area after 00Z Sunday, namely at KRUT where the stronger flow aloft will arrive first. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: MVFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer DISCUSSION...Kremer/JMG AVIATION...JMG