NUBS NOB SKI AREA

SKI REPORT
February 16, 2025

Hydrologic Outlook
None

ESFAPX THE SPRING 2025 FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN INDICATES A NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT WITHIN MAJOR EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS. THIS OUTLOOK COVERS CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHICH INCLUDES THE PINE RIVER BASIN...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN ENCOMPASSING THE AU SABLE... BOARDMAN...MANISTEE...RIFLE...AND TOBACCO RIVER BASINS. THE FIRST TABLE BELOW LISTS THE PROBABILITIES OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE (MINOR FLOODING)...AS WELL AS MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS FOR THE SIX FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE GAYLORD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR... MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS: THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS: THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 54 12 7 <5 <5 <5 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 40 12 8 <5 <5 <5 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 6.0 11.0 13.0 : 65 63 <5 <5 <5 <5 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 12.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED CHANCE FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE (CS) AND THE CLIMATIC NORMAL (HS). FOR EXAMPLE...THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN...WITH A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET...HAS A 54 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE...WHICH IS 42 PERCENTAGE POINTS ABOVE NORMAL. DURING THE 90 DAY PERIOD LISTED...THE TYPICAL PROBABILITY OF THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS 12 PERCENT. THE NEXT TABLE SHOWS THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (HIGH FLOW FORECAST): ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 14.2 14.3 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.1 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.5 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.8 7.5 7.8 8.2 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 4.8 5.0 5.6 6.6 8.0 8.9 9.4 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 8.4 9.2 10.3 11.6 13.1 14.4 15.6 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.8 7.6 8.7 9.3 CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ARE AROUND 50 PERCENT ON THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN...THE AU SABLE RIVER NEAR RED OAK...AND THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING. ELSEWHERE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE IS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. THE LAST TABLE INDICATES THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (LOW FLOW FORECAST): ...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH IN ORDER TO GIVE ADVANCE NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...AND INCORPORATE CURRENT RIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES...AND BOTH 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. ACTUAL RIVER CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK IF FUTURE CONDITIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST CONDITIONS... OR IF ICE JAMS DEVELOP. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS... ABOVE NORMAL SNOWFALL AND SNOWPACK IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD PROBABILITIES AT SEVERAL GAGING LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SUMMER MONTHS (JUNE-AUGUST) WAS GENERALLY FROM 75 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN JUNE WAS THE WETTEST MONTH OF THE SUMMER WITH PRECIPITATION 150 TO 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL...THINGS STARTED TO DRY OUT IN JULY WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THOUGH MOST AREAS RECEIVED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION. A SIMILAR TREND WAS NOTED IN AUGUST. PRECIPITATION DURING THE FALL (SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER) STARTED BELOW NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER (LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH SOME AREAS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND OCTOBER (25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL). BUT NOVEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...MORE THAN 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ANTRIM/WESTERN OTSEGO/NORTHWEST KALKASKA COUNTIES MAINLY DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT DURING THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. DECEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (150 TO 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL) CONCENTRATED OVER THE TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS. TRAVERSE CITY RECORDED ITS SECOND SNOWIEST DECEMBER ON RECORD (48.2 INCHES)...GAYLORD ITS FOURTH SNOWIEST DECEMBER (57.9 INCHES)...AND HOUGHTON LAKE ITS 9TH SNOWIEST (23.4 INCHES). JANUARY 2025 PRECIPITATION WAS DEPENDENT ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN SNOWBELT AREAS. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES OF 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL OCCURRED MAINLY BETWEEN GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN (BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY M-68 AND M-72 TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH RESPECTIVELY)...THE TYPICAL LAKE MICHIGAN SNOW BELT REGIONS. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES OF 100 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL OCCURRED OVER NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY. SAULT STE. MARIE RECORDED THEIR SECOND SNOWIEST JANUARY ON RECORD (58.4 INCHES). AS OF FEBRUARY 14TH...TOTAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL AT SAULT STE. MARIE...GAYLORD...AND TRAVERSE CITY HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR NORMAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL. HOWEVER ALL MAJOR CLIMATE SITES HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS THUS FAR RUNNING 100 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE SEASON...EXCEPT FOR ALPENA AT 88 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS MONTH IS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER FROM M-55 NORTH TO M-32. SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (NORTH OF M-32) AND IN THE 20TH TO 30TH PERCENTILE ELSEWHERE. STREAMFLOWS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN RIVERS ARE BELOW NORMAL ON THE AU SABLE AND MANISTEE RIVERS...AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE WITHE FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS DUE TO ICE ACTIVITY. LINGERING D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF OSCODA...ALCONA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW...IOSCO...GLADWIN...AND ARENAC COUNTIES. D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE...LEELANAU...MONTMORENCY...ALPENA...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE...KALKASKA...CRAWFORD...MANISTEE...WEXFORD...AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES. ...WEATHER OUTLOOK... THE CURRENT CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY IS LEANING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING (MARCH THROUGH MAY) INDICATES NO DISCERNIBLE TREND WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES (EQUAL PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE... NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION)....AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 27, 2025. LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS SUCH AS THOSE GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES ARE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. VISIT WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/APX ALL LOWER CASE) FOR MORE RIVER INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES...AS WELL AS THE LATEST OBSERVED CONDITIONS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN STREAMS.


SNOWPACK DEPTH

26.0" 140%

Snowpack DepthPercent of Normal

0" 5.42 "

Since Yesterday5 Day Forecast

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Nub’s Nob is serving up prime skiing conditions this Sunday, February 16, 2025, with a solid 26-inch base and fresh snow in the forecast. Overnight temps settled at a crisp 23°F, keeping conditions firm but carvable. Expect 1–2 inches of fresh snow today, with nearly 5 inches projected over the next five days—great news for powder chasers. Snow coverage is around 71% of the seasonal average, but with excellent grooming and well-maintained terrain, skiers and riders can expect a smooth and consistent surface across the mountain.

In local news, Nub’s Nob has been making headlines with exciting updates for the season, including recent improvements and events welcoming skiers of all levels. An open house at the resort promises a great opportunity to explore what’s new, and a recent podcast featuring General Manager Ben Doornbos offers insight into the mountain’s continued success. If you're heading to the slopes today, bundle up, enjoy the fresh snow, and take advantage of the fantastic mid-winter conditions.

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Snowpack Percent Normal 140%
Max Recorded Snowpack 30"
Snowfall Past 24 Hours 0"
Snowfall Next 24 Hours 1"
Snowfall Next 5 Days 5.42"
Terrain Surface NA
Powder Score NA
       

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About the Area


The Nub's Nob Ski Area is located in Harbor Springs, Michigan and is known for its diverse terrain and challenging slopes. The ski resort is situated in the Northern Michigan region, along the shores of Lake Michigan.

The pertinent mountain ranges and mountain aspects of Nub's Nob Ski Area include:

1. Nub's Nob: This prominent peak is the main mountain at the ski resort and offers a variety of slopes for skiers and snowboarders of all levels. With a summit elevation of 1,345 feet, Nub's Nob features a vertical drop of 427 feet and over 50 ski runs.

2. Pintail Peak: This secondary peak at Nub's Nob Ski Area offers additional terrain and trails for visitors to explore. Pintail Peak is known for its challenging black diamond runs and stunning panoramic views of the surrounding area.

3. Boyne Highlands: Located nearby, Boyne Highlands is another popular ski resort in the area that is connected to Nub's Nob Ski Area through a joint lift ticket option. The surrounding mountain ranges and aspects at Boyne Highlands offer even more opportunities for skiing and snowboarding enthusiasts.

Overall, Nub's Nob Ski Area boasts a unique alpine landscape with rolling hills, steep slopes, and wooded glades, making it a premier destination for winter sports in Michigan.

Nubs Nob Ski Area in Michigan offers skiers and snowboarders 53 slopes and trails across its 248 skiable acres. The resort's signature run is the Valley, which stretches for more than a mile and offers sweeping views of the surrounding area. Nubs Nob also features a terrain park for those looking to try their hand at jumps and tricks. A little-known fact about Nubs Nob is that it was originally a small ski hill called Pleasantview, which opened in 1956 with just two runs. For beginners, the resort offers a "SkiWee" program for children and adult beginner lessons. After hitting the slopes, head to the Nub's Pub for some apres ski drinks and live music.

Ski Resort Forecast View more

Ski Area Next 24 Hours Next 3 Days Next 5 Days
Norway Mountain 0.64" 0.64" 1.03"
Big Powderhorn Mountain 0.48" 1.13" 2.42"
Mt. Holly Ski Area 2.06" 2.15" 2.67"
Cannonsburg Ski Area 2.44" 2.5" 4.16"
Apple Mountain 2.03" 2.13" 2.66"
Boyne Mountain 1.37" 4.73" 5.42"

Regional Snowpack Conditions View more

Location Overnight Snowpack
FORT WAYNE 4.1 NE, IN 0.5" 1.2"
GAYLORD 4.1 S, MI 1.5" 27"
GAYLORD 9SSW 0" 26"
EDON 4S 0" 2"
SNOW PAID OBSERVER FOR KANJ 2.4" 30"
MANCELONA 0.5 ESE, MI 1.3" 26"
FIFE LAKE 2WNW 2.2" 24"
HARBOR SPRINGS 0.7 ENE, MI 1" 18"