Sugarloaf Snow Report

840 FXUS61 KGYX 190629 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 229 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes were needed for this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Expect seasonable temperatures and breezy northwest winds today with dry and pleasant weather on Monday. 2. Several rounds of downpours/thunderstorms Tuesday-Wednesday evening. Pleasant, seasonable temperatures through the end of the period. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Winds will shift to out of the northwest behind a cold front this morning, becoming breezy through the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph will be possible. Any early morning showers should move out to sea fairly quickly, but we could see a few lingering showers and clouds over the mountains. Any remaining wildfire smoke should also move out this morning and the pattern should give us a break from it`s return for at least a couple of days. Highs will be around seasonable averages for this time of year, ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s north, to the mid to upper 70s most elsewhere. A few lower 80s are likely over southeast New Hampshire and coastal Maine. Tonight`s lows will mainly range from the upper 40s to the upper 50s. High pressure moves in on Monday, leading to lighter winds, dry weather, and slightly warmer temperatures. Highs will mainly range from the low to mid 70s north, to the low to mid 80s south. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A slow moving, but deep trough, digs into the Northeast. Deep southwest flow aloft will really transport in a juicy environment. This will set the stage for scattered downpours as early as Tuesday afternoon, but more likely from Tuesday night- Wednesday night. With hi-res guidance just beginning to come into range, can see a bit of a convective augmentation to this rainfall event. Therefore, will likely have a few waves of heavy precipitation across the forecast area, with some drier periods too. Mean guidance shows PWATs surging to 1.50-1.90", which is AOA the 90th percentile of climatology. In addition, some deterministic output is suggesting robust IVT transport from the Gulf Coast states. All this is to say there will be a moist environment favoring efficient rainfall in place. Have seen QPF lower on NBM since yesterday, but it is still advertising a healthy inch region- wide. This slight drop is likely due to a more scattered nature to the rain. Overall not a strong signal for robust/organized convection, given weak low-level shear, CAPE, and general slow/pulsy storm motions. Do see a modest severe signal emerging on Wednesday. Will likely need some morning destabilization to realize the 1000 J/Kg MUCAPE that some guidance is indicating, so as is typically the case with convective setups around here, "stay tuned". Should generally have near seasonable temperatures this upcoming week. Tuesday-Wednesday will have a small diurnal range given the moisture and clouds in place. By Thursday-Friday, current expectations are a strong kick of dry westerly flow behind the trough. This looks to really dry things out, with dew points potentially dropping into the 40s. Combined with 850 mb temperatures dropping to 10-12C, dare we say a taste of early fall? The only fly in the ointment will be upstream wildfire smoke. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through tonight...A trend to VFR is likely at most terminals early this morning, with a NW wind shift behind a cold front. Winds become gusty this morning, up to 30 kts. This should prevent BR/FG this morning and wick smoke northeast. IFR/MVFR cigs may remain at HIE through the morning in upslope clouds. VFR conditions generally prevail the rest of today with gusty northwest winds continuing through the afternoon. MVFR ceilings and -SHRA may linger over HIE. Outlook... Monday: VFR expected. Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR to IFR possible with increasing chances for SHRA and a few TSRA. Thursday: Becoming VFR after some morning showers. Friday: VFR expected. && .MARINE... A cold front passes the waters early this morning. The passage of this front will lead to increasing southerly to southwesterly winds of 25 to 30 kts. Winds shift more offshore later this morning, remaining gusty but mostly falling below SCA levels. While wave heights will have built 5 to 8 ft, the NW winds should knock these down to 3 to 4 ft by mid morning. High pressure builds in Monday, keeping conditions under SCA levels, and then the next front brings another chance at SCA conditions toward the middle of next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MEZ007>009- 012>014-018>028-033. NH...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NHZ001>015. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hargrove/Barker