Tuckerman Ravine Snow Report

570 FXUS61 KGYX 060644 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 244 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes since the previous forecast cycle. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Heat and humidity build through late week and persist through the weekend as a subtropical ridge of high pressure drives the weather pattern for New England. 2. There will be daily chances for storms today through Saturday. Coverage will be limited while there is potential for a few strong storms and localized torrential rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Bermuda High Pressure will continue to build towards the Eastern Seaboard through this weekend, allowing for warm and humid conditions to persist. High temperatures today and Friday will be into the upper 80s to lower 90s south of the mountains and away from the immediate coastline before more in the way of cloud cover cools highs a bit on Saturday to mainly the upper 80s. While these temperatures are not overly impressive for August, dew point temperatures into the 60s to lower 70s will make it feel rather muggy. Afternoon heat index values will approach the middle 90s today across portions of SE NH and therefore a Heat Advisory remains in effect. Additional Heat Advisories may be needed on Friday, possibly encompassing a larger area. Temperatures will likely remain above average on Sunday into Monday but dew points should be mainly into the 60s, limiting the heat index. Overnight low temperatures will be on the warmer side each night, although most locations should manage to fall into the 60s most nights. A stronger cold front should cross by Tuesday, bringing a return to cooler temperatures for the remainder of next week. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Not much has changed in regards to the setup for the next couple days, but the CAMs are beginning to shed some light on the finer details. Deep southwesterly flow is going to drive PWATs into the 1.75 to 2 inch range, with pockets of greater than 2 inch PWATs possible. The latest CAMs suggest dewpoints being driven into the upper 60s to around 70 combined with daytime heating is going to equate to CAPE values in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. All this along with 25 to 30 kts of shear suggest that a strong thunderstorm may be possible, however lack of forcing is going to be a greatly limiting factor. Currently the CAMs have very little in the way of showers and storms forming, but if anything does form and build it could produce strong winds and torrential rainfall (The HREF is showing bullseye of 1.5 to 2 inches in the local probability match mean). Saturday looks like the best chance for widespread showers and storms as we continue to keep the conducive environment discussed above with models suggesting a cold front passage during the day. CSU machine learning is highlighting this as a potential severe weather day, but fronts can be finicky and would like to see what happens when this gets in the CAM window. Currently only the RRFS goes out that far and suggests the potential for early morning showers that may shut down the chance for afternoon development. It is not atypical to see this uncertainty in conducive environments that lack forcing, so we will just have to continue to monitor the trends as more cycles come in. Global models continue to be adamant that early next week is going to be the turning point as the 500 mb pattern transitions to zonal flow. This likely results in a cooling trend for temperatures and dewpoints, but this tends to keep the weather unsettled so I`m fine with the NBM continuing to show chances for afternoon showers and storms. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through Thursday Night: Mainly VFR conditions expected. The exceptions are at LEB, HIE, CON, and possibly RKD/AUG where nighttime and early morning FG may result in localized IFR to LIFR restrictions. Low ceilings advancing north from southern New England should thin as they approach southern NH, but can`t rule out some low cigs early Thurs morning for PSM/MHT/EEN. This then moves over the coastal waters, lingering today and tonight, perhaps in vicinity of PSM/PWM/RKD. Light and variable winds become S at 5-15 kts today before becoming light and variable again overnight. No LLWS is anticipated through the period. Outlook... Friday: Mainly VFR, although an isolated afternoon TSRA cannot be ruled out. Patchy fog is possible Friday night along with low cigs and SHRA. Saturday: Scattered SHRA/TSRA will bring potential for localized restrictions. Cigs may also be around MVFR thresholds. Sunday-Monday: Mainly VFR outside of isolated SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... High pressure dominates over the waters today and slowly shifts southeast into Saturday. Increasing moisture will bring potential for fog over the waters tonight into Saturday. A front approaches the waters late Friday into Saturday bringing chances for showers and storms. South to SW flow generally prevails through the period with winds and seas remaining below SCA thresholds. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NHZ012-013. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tubbs/Baron/Cornwell