Tropical Cyclone Statement
Until 2024-09-25T20:00:00-04:00
•
National Weather Service
HLSTAE
This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia
**HELENE FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE ALONG THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY**
NEW INFORMATION
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* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Watch for Coastal Gulf.
- A Hurricane Warning for Baker, Calhoun, Calhoun, Clay, Dougherty,
Early, Jackson, Lee, Miller, Quitman, Randolph, Seminole, and Terrell
- A Tropical Storm Warning for Central Walton, Coffee, Dale, Geneva,
Holmes, North Walton, South Walton, and Washington
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal
Taylor, Coastal Wakulla, Inland Dixie, Inland Jefferson, and
Inland Wakulla
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Ben Hill, Berrien,
Brooks, Coastal Gulf, Colquitt, Cook, Decatur,
Gadsden, Grady, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf,
Inland Taylor, Irwin, Lafayette, Lanier, Leon,
Liberty, Lowndes, Madison, Mitchell, Thomas, Tift,
Turner, and Worth
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Bay, Henry,
Houston, and Inland Bay
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 570 miles south of Apalachicola or about 620 miles
south-southwest of Tallahassee
- 21.6N 86.3W
- Storm Intensity 80 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 330 degrees at 10 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Hurricane Helene is forecast to slowly lift north before rapidly
strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major
hurricane on Thursday. Helene is near the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula this morning, move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico later
today, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on Thursday as a Major
Hurricane.
Confidence is increasing for significant, to potentially catastrophic,
impacts across our region including high winds, catastrophic and
life-threatening storm surge in Apalachee Bay, flash flooding from
heavy rainfall, and a few tornadoes. Helene is a large storm and
impacts will extend well outside the cone of uncertainty. Preparations
should be completed by this evening, as conditions deteriorate
Wednesday night and Thursday.
Wind Threat: It is increasingly likely that Helene will make landfall
along the FL Big Bend coast on Thursday as a Major Hurricane. While
exact impacts will be heavily dependent on the eventual track, expect
catastrophic wind damage near the eventual landfall point and inland
along the track. Widespread and prolonged power outages, damage to
critical infrastructure, catastrophic damage to the trees and
powerlines, widespread inaccessibility due to blocked roads, and
damage to well-built structures will all be possible, particularly
close to and east of the track. Power outages will likely last days,
if not weeks, near where it makes landfall. Due to the quick forward
speed of Helene, significant wind damage may extend well into Georgia.
Surge Threat: There is a danger of catastrophic and potentially
unsurvivable storm surge for Apalachee Bay. Storm surge may begin to
arrive as early as late Wednesday night ahead of the winds. This
forecast, if realized, is a nightmare surge scenario for Apalachee
Bay. Please, please, please take any evacuation orders seriously!
Flooding Rain Threat: Widespread heavy rainfall is forecast with this
system and will likely lead to both flash flooding and riverine
flooding. Heavy rainfall is possible ahead of Helene today, perhaps
enhancing the overall flooding threat on Thursday as Helene moves
through the area. Even though the hurricane is forecast to be moving
quickly, very high rainfall rates and already saturated soils in some
places will still combine for a serious flood risk across the region.
Be prepared for flash flooding and quickly rising rivers and streams.
A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area.
Tornadoes: While not the highest threat with this system, a few
tornadoes will be possible along and east of the eventual track.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across the Florida Big Bend, the eastern Florida Panhandle,
and Southwestern Georgia. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.
Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible
significant to extensive impacts across the western Florida Panhandle
and southeastern Alabama.
* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible catastrophic
impacts across the coastal Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
onshore and stranded.
Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, little to no impact is
anticipated.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big
Bend, Southwest Georgia, and Southeast Alabama. Potential impacts
include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts elsewhere across the region.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Potential impacts
include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.
If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.
Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.
If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city in which
you are staying and the name of the county in which it resides.
Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for
instructions from local authorities.
Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.
Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!
If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
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The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 5:30 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
SNIPE ISLAND UNIT - BIG BEND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA