× Hydrologic Outlook
Until 2024-12-28T16:00:00-08:00 • National Weather Service
ESFPQR A series of storm systems will continue to bring a wet weather pattern across northwest Oregon through the weekend. This will lead to rises on rivers and creeks through at least December 30th. As of 2 AM PST December 28th, the Luckiamute River remained just above minor flood stage and is forecast to remain right at or just above minor flood stage through Saturday afternoon before falling below flood stage Saturday evening, Dec. 28th. Other rivers across northwest Oregon remained below minor flood stage, however river levels will continue to rise. With the rising river levels, there is a 40% chance that the Pudding River at Aurora will also reach minor flood stage sometime on December 30th. In addition, there is a 15-25% chance that the Wilson River, Marys River, Mohawk River and Siletz River will reach minor flood stage. The Siuslaw River has a 35% chance of reaching minor flood stage. Heavy rainfall may also lead to ponding of water, general lowland flooding and localized urban flooding, especially in low lying areas or other areas with poor drainage. Heavy rainfall will also increase the potential for landslides in areas of steep terrain and debris flows over areas that have been burned by wildfires over the past few years. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact track of the Saturday night/Sunday system and associated rain amounts. There is currently a 10% chance the southern Willamette Valley will receive 2-2.5" of rain and the adjacent higher terrain of the Coast Range and Cascades will receive 3-4" of rain Saturday evening through Sunday morning. This represents the worst case scenario, which would result in more widespread flooding issues. That said, the most likely scenario is 1-1.5" of rain in the southern Willamette Valley and 2-3" in the adjacent higher terrain of the Coast Range and Cascades. This would result in minor and less widespread flooding. Shifts in the forecast storm track can change the current outlook and probabilities for river flooding, so be sure to monitor weather.gov/portland for the latest weather updates, as well as any watches, warnings, or advisories that may be issued. To view the latest river forecasts, visit water.noaa.gov/wfo/pqr.