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ESFGJT An anomalous plume of moisture continues to rotate into Utah and western Colorado this afternoon, as an elongated area of high pressure shifts into the southwestern CONUS. For today, steering winds overhead are northerly, providing a unique storm motion for the GJT forecast area. In addition, our southern zones and most of eastern Utah contain higher amounts of moisture, so as storms generally build and shift south, they're moving into juicier environments. Even though this source of moisture is a great relief to the drought stricken West, excessive rainfall returns the concerns of flash flooding and debris flows over recent (or even on going) burn scars. 18Z's sounding also shows weak flow throughout the atmospheric column, which will result in slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon. The combination of increased moisture and slow storm motion further elevates the concern for excessive rainfall in localized areas. The San Juan's are a bullseye in precipitation forecasts over the next several days, maintaining flood threats redeveloping each afternoon. Due to the prolonged period of anomalously high moisture, over areas with sensitive burn scars, we want to emphasize the potential for flash flooding and debris flows in this regime. We're expecting an uptick in moisture content across the entire region on Thursday, which favors a higher likelihood of wetting rain with bursts of heavy rain in localized storms. For 2026 fires, we have yet to test their susceptibility to handle rainfall. Therefore, we want to increase our messaging of the potential hazards at play downstream nearby fires. Keep an eye on our forecasts through the end of the week and stay tuned for updated hydro alerts if visiting or if you reside below vulnerable terrain to flash flooding and/or debris flows. Storms across the west develop quickly, leaving little room for lead time in flashy terrain.
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