Bears Den Mountain Snow Report

201 FXUS63 KFGF 030427 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1127 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms late tonight through the morning hours Monday, for large hail and damaging winds. - There is a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail, with the potential for a few tornadoes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026 ...Synopsis... The upper level ridge axis extends across our region, with SW beginning to build over the western Dakotas ahead of a deepening upper level trough in the Northern Rockies/Pacific NW. This trough passage and the associated front will bring the next round of organized showers and thunderstorms (and severe risk) to our region Monday, but may also draw in additional smoke aloft and potentially a brief period of surface level smoke behind the cold front. This trough becomes a more dominate feature for our region through the week as it stalls and deepens in Canada, and flattens the larger scale ridging. This will support temperatures in seasonal ranges for most days next week (+/1 1 standard deviation of normal), and a break from the much hotter temperatures in the 90+ range through next weekend. The tendency for at most very weak mid level waves in mid/upper level westerly or weak northwest flow lowers predictability for any periods when measurable precipitation may occur and any thunderstorm impacts after Monday. ...Severe Weather Risk Tonight/Monday Morning... Initially strong capping in the 850-700MB layer and the lack of organized forcing should limit the potential for thunderstorm initiation through this evening. Better signal for thunderstorm arrives as forcing increases as the cold front moves into the region while a LLJ/elevated WAA remain in place Monday morning (generally 6am-10am). Elevated instability and increasing effective shear could support a large hail/damaging wind threat with thunderstorms that develop Monday morning. ...Severe Weather Risk Monday Afternoon/Evening... CAMs continue to show ongoing elevated shower and thunderstorms through Monday afternoon as the main trough moves across the region. If smoke aloft is too thick or mid level clouds/elevated storms linger, severe threats may remain isolated/marginal in nature with stronger capping in place. However where there is more clearing, CAMs are showing a signal for EML development ahead of the front with strongly sheared turning hodographs supportive of supercells. There should be enough forcing with the trough and front in that scenario for the CAP to be eroded near the frontal zone, and a more organized severe threat in the afternoon/evening. CAMs do show the stronger UH tracks/supercell type signal with some showing bowing type MCS clusters and this reflects the higher level scenario that is conditional on better surface based destabilization. && .AVIATION /05Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026 Showers will be spreading west to east from eastern North Dakota into Minnesota starting at 12z and becoming more widespread by 18z. Thunderstorms after 21z mainly impacting Valley and Minnesota sites. Winds not as strong as Sunday with gusts (not including thunderstorms) up to 25 knots. Ceilings do look to now stay VFR with MVFR only possible during periods of heavier rain and even then it is uncertain. Overall a bit of a gross day but outside of UND helicopters no thresholds to restrict flying are being hit. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...TT