Devil's Nest Snow Report

421 FXUS63 KOAX 240444 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1144 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected. - Clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures cooler Monday, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the work week, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The upper pattern revealed by water vapor imagery is dominated by the persistent ridge centered over west Texas and a deep cut- off low spinning cyclonically over the Great Lakes. Betwixt the two, Iowa and Nebraska are under northwest flow aloft. Radar returns this evening have been slowly tapering as they`ve drifted southeast into a drier and more stable airmass. Temps and dewpoints are in the 60s as winds have become light and variable. It`s a little muggy but pleasant outside. This would be a good set-up for fog, but for the increasing clouds expected overnight. Any development should be patchy at best. More showers and storms are expected to develop soon as the nocturnal jet gets act together. The jet will reach farther north than normal, likely initiating the storms in South Dakota. These storms are progged to push south-southeast overnight, passing through the Yankton/Sioux City area around 5am (60% PoPs), and through Omaha around 9am (35% PoPs) as odds fade. The area should be dry by lunch. Again, it`ll be a bit cloudier than typical, leaving highs ranging form the upper 70s to mid-80s. Monday night should be dry. .TUESDAY... Tuesday will be warmer with southerly flow picking up the pace ahead of an approaching cold front / shortwave. Expect highs entirely in the 80s. The cold front is tied to a system just north of the Canadian border leaving best forcing for ascent across Minnesota and points north. There will also be increased severe odds west of here tied to a shortwave. Our best chances of thunder is tied to the unstable airmass that develops as humidity streams north in the increasing heat. PWAT values will be above the 90th percentile (NAEFS). However, PoPs have been almost cut in half over the past 48 hours (70% -> 40%). Some heavy rain is possible, but ensemble guidance now has best odds of 1" or more west of this CWA. That`s where the excessive rainfall outlook (ERO by WPC) is currently lit up. (Category 1 of 4). .WEDNESDAY... The last of Tuesday`s showers should be wrapped up by sunrise Wednesday and it`s the only day of the forecast currently forecast to be completely precip free. That seems unlikely to change with a sfc high passing through. .THE REST OF THE FORECAST... The upper pattern remains mostly unchanged through the work week before zonal flow sets up early next week. We`ll remain in the path of a continued parade of waves rounding the southern ridge. PoPs return to the forecast late on Thursday (20%) and continue daily into next week. Friday`s chances are best (30-60%). As a result, temps should slowly climb over the course of the work week`s second half, with some 90s popping up on the map by Saturday. The first five days of September are highlighted by the CPC as having a 20-40% risk of extreme heat (90th+ percentile). The heat is expected to linger. The 6-10 day outlook leans hot, the 8-14 day outlook leans warmer than normal, as does the forecast for "weeks 3-4" (9/5-9/18). 2026 is on track to be the fifth warmest on record at Omaha and September looks to keep pace. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Ceilings decrease over the next few hours as thunderstorms in South Dakota move southeast into the region. Storms may start impacting KOFK around 09Z, and gradually move further southeast, impacting KLNK and KOMA after 12Z. Could have some visibility reductions as storms move through the area. Ceilings improve at KOFK after 12Z and at KLNK and KOMA after 15Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...ANW