Kincaid Park Cross Country Ski Trails Snow Report

800 FXAK68 PAFC 120009 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 409 PM AKDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Friday)... Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures are expected today before a warming trend develops Wednesday and continues through Friday as upper-level ridging rebuilds across Southcentral. - Rainfall returns to Kodiak Island Wednesday afternoon as a North Pacific low approaches, with periods of rain continuing into Thursday. Discussion: Marine fog and low stratus continue to be observed across portions of Cook Inlet and the northern Gulf coastal areas. These low clouds will remain possible through Wednesday morning, especially near Cook Inlet and along the western Kenai Peninsula, before gradually diminishing as daytime heating and increasing subsidence take hold. On Wednesday, shortwave energy over Southcentral becomes increasingly diffuse as 500 mb heights rise and upper-level ridging begins to strengthen. Increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures are expected across much of the mainland, marking the beginning of a warming trend following today`s cooler conditions. Some morning marine fog and low stratus may linger near Cook Inlet and the western Kenai Peninsula before gradually eroding through the day. Farther south, a North Pacific low approaches Kodiak Island Wednesday, spreading increasing cloud cover and rain across the island. The upper-level pattern suggests the bulk of the associated shortwave energy and moisture will remain focused near Kodiak Island and the western Gulf, limiting precipitation farther north across the Southcentral mainland. The warming trend becomes more pronounced Thursday as the ridge strengthens and expands across Southcentral. Rising 500 mb heights, increasing subsidence, and periods of sunshine will allow temperatures to climb further, particularly across the Susitna Valley, Copper River Basin, and other inland locations. While temperatures trend upward, the strongest warming is expected across inland locations, with coastal areas remaining somewhat moderate by persistent marine influence. Meanwhile, the North Pacific system remains near Kodiak Island and the western Gulf, maintaining periods of rain for Kodiak before precipitation begins to become less widespread. By Friday, upper-level ridging remains firmly established across much of Southcentral, allowing the stretch of warmer and predominantly dry weather to continue. Some marine influence and morning low clouds may continue along the immediate coast, but most of the Southcentral mainland should remain dry through Friday. Forecast confidence remains relatively high in continued warm and mostly dry conditions across the Southcentral mainland through Friday. LM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)... Satellite imagery and surface observations depict a low pressure system with a high end small craft front with gusts to gale force moving eastward across the central Bering while upper level cloud cover can be seen streaming northward from a North Pacific low that is approaching the Alaska Peninsula. Nestled in between these two systems is a fog and low stratus bank locked in across the eastern Bering, North Pacific, and also across the Kuskokwim Delta region for areas like Bethel. Meanwhile, outside of areas of fog across Southwest Alaska, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed with daytime heating and from weak waves embedded within the 500 mb mean flow of a ridge of high pressure anchored across the Cook Inlet region of Southcentral. The focus and highest confidence of thunderstorm activity this afternoon through early tomorrow morning will be along the slopes of the Kilbuck Mountains and near Lime Village, with convection moving north-northeastward with time. This will be the last day of thunderstorm potential for Southwest Alaska due to the North Pacific low moving northward through the short term forecast period, which will bring in a more stable airmass and displace any instability potential farther north and out of the region. By mid Wednesday morning, the Bering low nears the Pribilof Islands as its front slowly weakens. To the southeast, the North Pacific low continues to lift northward. Its leading front will be capable of southeasterly small craft winds, with even stronger winds and gusts flowing through favored gaps, bays, and passes of the Alaska Peninsula and then across the Bristol Bay waters. The movement of the North Pacific low will nudge the ridge farther northeastward and the flow becomes more difluent across Southwest Alaska heading into Wednesday afternoon. One little "fun" thing to watch will be how close in proximity the North Pacific low will come to the Bering low. If close enough, the two lows could do a Fujiwhara "dance" where one low would spin around the other - or if one low becomes larger than the other, the larger low could absorb the smaller low. Regardless, the Bering low is on track to stay mostly stationary and west of the Pribilof Islands through Thursday morning, while the eastern most low moves across the Alaska Peninsula and across Southwest Alaska with rainfall. By Thursday afternoon, the windward/southeast facing slopes of the mountains along the Alaska Peninsula are on track to see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with lesser amounts in lee of the mountains for places like King Salmon due to mesoscale downsloping. The Bristol Bay region is likely to see up to 1 inch of rainfall through Thursday afternoon. Southeasterly flow continues in the wake of the North Pacific low even after it moves across Southwest Alaska, keeping gap areas like Cold Bay on the windy side and continuing gap winds farther northward up the coast for the Alaska Peninsula through Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, the Bering low starts to gain momentum and heads southward towards the Central Aleutians while weakening/filling with very low to zero impacts. -AM && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... The general pattern going into the weekend will have an upper low over the central Bering with a ridge over Mainland Alaska. On Saturday, the upper low begins to move to the eastern Bering and makes an attempt to push the ridge northeastward into the Interior/Yukon down through the Alaska Panhandle. Temperatures across the region will begin to cool as cloud coverage increases from west to east. For most of Southcentral and the Kuskokwim Valley, cloud coverage doesn`t increase until Saturday night. Saturday will continue to be warm for these areas with highs in the 70s at lower elevations with up to 80 degrees in spots of the Copper River Basin and Kuskokwim Valley. A surface low from the North Pacific will cross the eastern Aleutian Chain Saturday and stall in the eastern Bering through Tuesday. This low will also send a front eastward through the Gulf and Southcentral Alaska Sunday into Monday. This will make conditions conducive for rainfall across the Aleutians, the AKPen, Southwest Alaska, Kodiak Island, and the Gulf Coast into early next week. Some rainfall may be heavy, especially for the Aleutians on Saturday, the AKPen, Kodiak Island, and portions of Southwest Alaska Sunday into Monday, and the northern Gulf Coast (particularly the southern Kenai Peninsula) Monday into Tuesday. Though model agreement is fairly good, there are still slight differences with the strength of the low and progression of the low and front. Thus, while confidence is high with which areas will receive the heaviest rain, confidence is still low on exact timing and amounts of rainfall into early next week. The other factor with the low moving through will be the potential for southeasterly winds accelerating through favorable gaps and bays of the AKPen (such as Cold Bay) Saturday into Sunday. As the front progresses eastward Sunday into Monday, light precipitation will spill over the mountains into the rest of Southwest and Southcentral and linger into early next week. This will result in cooler temperatures compared to this week. Though the ridge is pushed east, it likely stays over the Copper River Basin on Sunday before being pushed out to the Interior/Yukon. There is also some model uncertainty on both when and how much the front breaks the ridge down. The longer the ridge holds on, the later precipitation will spill over into the Copper River Basin. The Copper River Basin likely sees at least one additional day of warm and dry conditions compared to the rest of Southcentral Alaska. Any potential warm days past Sunday will be determined by how much the front breaks the ridge down. Details will become more clear in the coming days. -PA && .AVIATION... PANC... Fog and low stratus linger along Cook Inlet, and continue to be the most challenging aspect of the forecast. Given the clouds lingering near the terminal, the light winds, and the high dewpoint temperature and relative humidity, the thinking is that ceilings and visibility will likely remain MVFR and IFR through tomorrow morning, with brief periods of improvement to VFR. LIFR ceilings and visibilities remain possible for early tomorrow morning, but this is looking a little less likely as overcast skies will likely disrupt radiational cooling and fog formation. && $$