Kincaid Park Cross Country Ski Trails Snow Report

694 FXAK68 PAFC 130045 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 445 PM AKDT Mon Oct 12 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Monday night through Thursday)... An active weather pattern will persist across Southcentral Alaska through the middle of the week as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. An upper-level trough extending across southern Alaska will support periods of precipitation, with the greatest coverage expected along the coastal areas and the higher terrain. For today, unsettled conditions will continue across portions of Southcentral Alaska as moisture moves inland. Coastal locations, including Prince William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula, will see the greatest potential for precipitation, while areas farther inland, including Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys, may experience more intermittent precipitation. Snow level will remain an important forecast consideration, particularly across higher elevations, where around 5 inches of snow may be possible at Thompson Pass tonight through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the upper-level pattern begins to transition as the earlier disturbance shifts eastward and attention turns toward another developing system over the North Pacific. While some locations may experience a relative decrease in precipitation, lingering moisture and additional embedded disturbances could maintain unsettled conditions, particularly along the coast. By Thursday, model guidance indicates a more amplified upper-level pattern as a stronger trough and associated low-pressure system approach the northern Gulf. This system will bring another round of widespread precipitation and gusty winds to portions of Southcentral Alaska, particularly along the northern Gulf Coast, Prince William Sound, the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island. The GFS, Canadian, NAM and ECMWF guidance generally supports a more organized system developing, although differences remain in the placement and strength of the upper-level trough and associated surface low. A track closer to the norther Gulf Coast would increase the potential for stronger winds and heavier precipitation, while a track farther south or east could limit impacts farther inland. Confidence is moderate in the overall evolution of the system, but lower regarding the magnitude and location of potential impacts. Uncertainty remains in model guidance regarding the exact track and strength of the low through Thursday. -LM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... The large, occluded low continues to weaken and remain nearly stationary near Saint Lawrence Island through Tuesday, as continued clouds and convective showers progress from west to east across the Bering/Aleutians and into Southwest Alaska. Weak shortwaves embedded within the mean flow will continue to drive scattered convective showers across Southwest Alaska through Tuesday as the broad upper level trough over the Bering begins to slowly progress east and the surface low dissipates. In the western Bering, a stronger shortwave becoming more defined in satellite imagery this afternoon digs south across the western Aleutian Chain through tonight, bringing an uptick in showers and northwesterly small craft winds from Shemya to Atka through Tuesday. By Tuesday morning, the shortwave digs south of the Aleutian Chain and interacts and phases with a separate, compact North Pacific shortwave while ridging begins to build across the western Bering. This results in the upper level pattern becoming much more amplified throughout the day Tuesday, with a surface low in the North Pacific quickly deepening Tuesday into Wednesday as it moves northwards towards the Alaska Peninsula. Reinforced northwesterly flow between the two synoptic features will bring small craft winds and gale force gusts from the southern Bering across the Central Aleutians through Wednesday, while stronger gale-force winds around the low reach the coastal waters south of the Alaska Peninsula by Wednesday morning. Models continue to come into better agreement on the evolution of the low as it moves north, spreading east to northeast small craft to gale-force winds throughout the southeastern Bering and the Bristol Bay waters Wednesday into Thursday morning. As the low begins to slowly pivot east towards the Gulf Thursday, north-northwesterly winds across the southern AKPen and eastern Aleutian Islands further strengthen, bringing the potential for storm-force gusts from roughly Unalaska to Cold Bay and widespread gales through favored bays and passes along the southern AKPen. Across the Southwest Mainland, expect gusty easterly Kamishak Gap winds as well as gusty offshore winds for the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Bristol Bay coast. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... The long term forecast starts off on Friday with a low tracking into the Gulf of Alaska and weakening. Scattered rainfall impacts Kodiak Island and the Southcentral Coast. Higher elevations will likely see snowfall with snow levels at 1500 to 2000 ft. For Southwest Alaska, gap winds over the Unalaska area and Alaska Peninsula quickly diminish as the low moves east. Ridging develops over the Bering, leading to calmer winds and potentially low stratus or fog. Uncertainty with the low`s location is present on Saturday, with more or less rain and snow possible for the coast depending on the low`s exact position. On Saturday night/Sunday morning, a frontal system moves into the Bering, leading to rain and elevated winds over parts of the Aleutians, but exactly which part is uncertain for now. Southcentral dries out on Sunday as the low is absorbed by a new low moving into Southeast Alaska. A strong North Pacific low is poised to move south of the Aleutians by Monday, which would bring gusty winds and rainfall to the Unalaska and Nikolski area. Southcentral remains drier on Monday. -JAR && .AVIATION... PANC...Rain showers should be tapering off overall through tomorrow. Ceilings should range from 3000 to 5000 ft in general through tomorrow though there is potential for ceilings to drop below 3000 ft late tonight and remain MVFR for much of the day Tuesday. Visibilities will be VFR unless a particularly heavy shower passes through and briefly dips vis to MVFR conditions. Winds are expected to remain south to southeast under 10 kts, though there may be some occasional higher gusts through this evening. && $$