Lutsen Mountains Snow Report

448 FXUS63 KDVN 020646 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1246 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A large storm system will move into the area later today through the day Tuesday. Accumulating rainfall to around an inch for some locations (50-80% chance over eastern Iowa) and gusty southeast winds are expected with this system. - Behind the system, spotty rain showers will be possible for the second half of the work week. - Although cooler by mid/late week, temperatures will continue to be above normal for early November. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 Our well-advertised active weather pattern will take shape today, lasting through the day Tuesday, bringing rainy and windy conditions to the area. The culprit is an amplified upper-level trough, which can be seen well on the latest GOES-East mid-level water vapor imagery. This trough will gradually make its way eastward, arriving over our area by this afternoon. An attendant 997 mb surface low currently undergoing lee cyclogenesis over northeastern Colorado will lift northeastward over eastern South Dakota by this afternoon per the latest GEFS and ECMWF ensemble surface low tracks, placing our area within the warm sector of the system. Chances of rain ramp up Monday night through Tuesday as high moisture content moves in by then, characterized by Pwats progged around 1.5 to 1.7 inches as the system pulls tropical moisture northward. These are pretty impressive values for early November, and indeed, they near the maximum climatological percentile for Pwats per the NAEFS ensemble. While this doesn`t mean we will be dealing with record rainfall (and to be clear, we`re not expecting anything like that!), but it does look pretty rainy for later today through Tuesday. Rainfall totals between 0.50 to 1.00+ are very likely, given NBM exceedance probabilities of a half inch around 70 to 90% area-wide. It`s even likely for many locations in eastern Iowa to receive over 1 inch of total rainfall (50-80%). One thing to keep an eye on is on thunderstorm potential today, mainly for overnight tonight/early Tuesday morning as a 40-50 knot low-level jet (LLJ) develops and some meager instability increases (at least a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE). Due to the LLJ, the deep-layer shear isn`t as low, around 35 to 45 knots, so this could sustain convection that forms over Kansas into western Missouri and lifts northeastward towards us. It appears unlikely for storms to maintain severe strength, but the Storm Prediction Center continues to have our far southwest in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to severe storms. Given the cloudy/rainy weather we have maintained high temperatures generally below the consensus blends, with forecast highs today and Tuesday generally in the upper 60s - still quite a bit warmer than average for early November. As for the winds, given a tight surface pressure gradient ahead of the surface low, winds of 15-20 mph, gusting to around 25 to 30+ mph are expected. Peak winds are expected during the daylight hours today and Tuesday due to more favorable momentum transport. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 The active pattern will continue Tuesday night through Wednesday as a secondary surface low that`s progged to develop over southwestern Kansas will sweep through the area late Tuesday, along with a surface cold front. Accumulating rainfall appears to wane in the wake of the fropa, but we will remain under a cloudy and cool pattern for the latter half of the week as a closed upper low is progged to develop over the Midwest. Confidence in this occurring is quite high, given the general consensus among the LREF ensemble cluster analysis. So, we will be dealing with persistent cyclonic flow, some lingering spotty light rain showers and some breezy winds, this time from the southwest. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will cool down quite a bit compared to early this week but will still remain above average for early November - in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Friday through the upcoming weekend: conditions look to become dry, along with some peaks of sunshine here and there. This is thanks to an area of high pressure that is progged to build over the region behind the departing cut-off low. High temperatures look to continue to warm into the upper 50s to near 60. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1157 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Mostly MVFR ceilings, with some isolated VFR to IFR, were observed over the area as of TAF issuance. The expectation is that ceilings will continue to lower overnight, with some light drizzle possible where ceilings fall to low-end MVFR to IFR. Model guidance has struggled with the current ceilings, so confidence on the exact timing of flight category changes due to ceilings remains low. Low ceilings will continue through most, if not all, of the morning before improving to MVFR, with the exception for DBQ where ceilings are more likely to remain IFR. Southeast winds should remain in place throughout the TAF period, with gusts around 25 knots expected. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schultz LONG TERM...Schultz AVIATION...Schultz