Mont Orignal Snow Report

871 FXUS61 KGYX 020630 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 230 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. High pressure over SE Canada will keep the area mostly dry today. 2. Low pressure tracks SE across the area Wednesday night through Thursday bringing rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms. 3. A gradual drying trend follows for Friday and Labor Day weekend, although there will bechances for scattered showers Saturday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low clouds will likely be in place through day break across much of NH and portions of western Maine south of the mountains. High pressure pressing southwestward from Canada will allow cielings to lift and any lingering fog to dissipate through the morning. Skies will likely remain mostly cloudy through the day as low pressure approaching from the northwest will spread additonal clouds into the area. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s with steady southeast winds. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure near James Bay this evening will send a warm front towards the forecast area tonight. Rain chances will increase west to east overnight along with deep moisture increasing as PWATs climb to 1.5 inches or more. These high PWATs combined with a strong southerly low level jet, some instability, and deep warm clouds depths will allow for bouts of moderate rain to localized heavy rain late tonight into Thursday morning. These bouts of heavy rain will be scattered in coverage and short enough to preclude and flood concerns while the timing will coincide with the Thursday morning commute that could lead to reduced visibility and ponding on roadways. The low will occlude through Thursday morning as the cold front catches the warm front that makes limited progress into Maine. The main area of rainfall will exit through central Maine around mid day with CAMs suggesting portions of southern NH will get into the warm sector of a secondary low forming near the triple point. CAMs suggest MU CAPE will build to around 1500 J/kg across southern NH early Thursday afternoon that could lead to a few thunderstorms. Available forcing and dry air aloft seem to be limiting coverage from latest CAMs. Will have to watch trends in the positioning of the warm sector as there appears to be enough shear for organized updrafts and potential for strong storms Thursday afternoon across southern NH. Otherwise, much of the area will see a drying trend Thursday afternoon with skies trending towards mostly sunny by the evening. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... An upper low over Quebec Friday will slowly cross northern Maine through Saturday. Latest model guidance is in reasonable agreement that Friday will be mostly dry outside of some showers in the mountains. Colder air aloft will move overhead Saturday that will aid in destabilizing the atmosphere Saturday afternoon. This will allow for some instability showers to develop while PoPs generally top out around 40 percent across the interior with lower chances near the coast. The upper low exits east Saturday night with ridging aaloft building in Sunday. This will bring mostly fair weather Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through Thursday...Moist onshore flow will allow for cigs to lower through day break with IFR likely at most terminals and LIFR cigs at PWM with fog. LIFR is more likely at LEB into this morning with valley fog. Improvement back to MVFR and VFR is expected mid to late morning, before ceilings lower again this evening. Widespread IFR/LIFR is likely after 06Z tonight in low cigs and rain through Thursday morning. LLWS will also be likely Thursday morning as a strong low level jet translates east across the area. Improvement is likely by early Thursday afternoon while a few TSRA will be possible across southern NH. Outlook... Thursday night-Friday: Improving conditions, with MVFR still possible in brief showers. Valley fog is possible at LEB and HIE. Friday night-Sunday: Mainly VFR during the daytime, but brief MVFR ceilings remain possible in afternoon showers. Nighttime valley fog is likely at HIE, LEB, and CON, and still possible at all other terminals. && .MARINE... High pressure remains centered northeast of the waters through today. A warm front will approach the waters tonight as an area of low pressure tracks SE across New England through Thursday. A period of SCA conditions are possible in southerly flow ahead of this system on Thursday along with periods of rain and fog. Northerly flow brings a return to fair conditions Thursday night and Friday. Marginal SCA conditions are then possible across the outer waters this weekend in northerly flow as low pressure deepens across Atlantic Canada. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schroeter