Steeplechase Ski & Snowboard Snow Report

359 FXUS63 KARX 100558 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Likely dry (80%) today, persistent precipitation potential from Tuesday through Thursday across the local forecast area, shunted along southern periphery until Saturday. - Cooler and drier for the latter half of the week for much of the local forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1256 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Low Confidence, Persistent Precipitation Potential After Tuesday: A relatively nebulous synoptic pattern leaves much to be desired regarding precipitation and storm confidence through the week. Regardless, a well saturated airmass south of a quasi-stationary boundary near or over the southern half of the local forecast area from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin eventually expected to be shunted along our southern periphery through the latter half of the week. However, initial near term model consensus increases precipitation potential due to increasing low level moisture Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night. While overall confidence is low, the warm, moist airmass has the potential for enhanced instability (2000+ J/kg, LREF) due to the warm frontal boundary potentially providing sufficient lift towards higher deep layer shear. Most likely storm mode would quasi-linear or broken cellular storms as storms lift east-northeast along the frontal boundary. Medium-range Real-time AI NWP Convective Hazard Forecast models (Pangu, FengWu) paint 5% to 15% probabilities Tuesday 12Z to Thursday 12Z as a result. Confidence decreases further through midweek as high pressure attempts to drive a back-door cold front across the local forecast area, forcing highest confidence along our southern periphery in northeast Iowa. Given a sharp cutoff in precipitation and storms expected, should this frontal boundary push/sag north/south, local PoPs will require additional adjustment. Cooler Through End Of Week, Weekend Storm Chances: Canadian high pressure sagging southeast through the end of the week ushers in a cooler, drier airmass before a passing low advecting precipitation and storm chances through the weekend returns and persists Upper Mississippi River Valley storm/precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 VFR conditions currently present at the terminals. Fog and low stratus have already started to build into some of the river valleys early overnight. This is expected to expand across much of the region with conditions at the terminals likely to drop into the IFR/LIFR range, especially at KRST where there is higher confidence in dense fog development. Categorical improvement is expected after sunrise between 13-14Z with the terminals back to VFR at that point. Winds will remain light and variable overnight with a general easterly direction expected during the day. Wind speeds during this time are expected to stay below 8 kts. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...Barendse