Steeplechase Ski & Snowboard Snow Report

329 FXUS63 KARX 140532 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very high chances (80-95%) for rainfall on Thursday with no impacts currently expected. - Strong northwest wind is expected behind a cold front on Friday with a low to medium chance (20-40%) for wind gusts to reach Wind Advisory criteria. - Much colder temperatures (mid-20s to mid-30s) expected on Friday night. This bring an end to the growing season for some, particularly north of I-94 (20-50% chance to fall below 28). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Today through Thursday: Increasing Rain Chances on Thursday An H500 low pressure system is currently located over the Desert Southwest but will eventually lift northeast towards the Central Plains. Before that occurs, another very nice Fall day is in store for the Driftless Region. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected along with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s. The aforementioned low pressure system is forecast to merge with a upper level trough that will dig south out of the Canadian Prairie Provinces on Thursday. Moisture will surge northward out ahead of these features which will aid in the development of rain showers beginning on Thursday morning. Widespread rainfall is becoming more and more likely and precipitation chances continue to increase upwards of 80-100%. The potential for a half inch of rainfall or more continues to slowly increase and the new NBM has the potential for a half inch or more at 40-60% area-wide. The high end rainfall amounts (5-10% chance at occurrence) are only upwards of 1.5-2 inches, so impacts from this system should be minimal. Some lingering light rainfall may remain over the area through the night, but drier, cooler air moving in behind a cold front should put an end to most of the rain showers by late Thursday evening. Friday into Saturday: Strong Winds Friday - Frost/Freeze Saturday Morning Breezy to windy conditions are likely to start the day on Friday in the wake of the cold frontal passage. The surface pressure gradient will tighten behind the front and a LLJ is also expected to set up with H850 winds upwards of 40-50 kts. Widespread wind gusts associated with the strong northwest wind are forecast to be 30-40 mph with a low to medium chance (20-40%) to exceed 45 mph. Even though it will be at least breezy all day, the strongest wind is expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. The cooler airmass behind the front should aid in dropping temperatures down well into the 30s and perhaps even the upper 20s on Friday night into Saturday morning. Just how low temperatures may drop will be largely influenced by how light the surface wind will be. The potential for at least frost conditions is very high (80-100%) but the hard freeze conditions (28 degrees or below) may only occur along and north of I-94. The 13/01z NBM has a 30-50% chance to drop down to 28 degrees or less along and north of the I-94 corridor. Southerly wind on Saturday should bring in some warmer air and afternoon highs may return to the lower 60s. Sunday into Next Week: Dry and Warm Conditions Expected Upper level high pressure quickly builds back in behind the departing trough on Sunday. High temperatures should quickly rebound into the 60s to lower 70s during this time frame. Dry conditions are expected at this time even though there are a few outlier solutions that produce light precipitation across the Midwest early next week. Confidence in that scenario panning out is very low even though there appears to be a plume of mid level moisture that will be in place over the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions quickly will give way to MVFR conditions over the coming hours as additional low-level stratus pushes into the region from the northwest. Consequently, the recent HREF has high probabilities (60-80%) for MVFR cigs towards daybreak with MVFR conditions persisting towards afternoon, before lifting to VFR. IFR cigs seem generally unlikely as the NBH and HREF have low probabilities (under 20%) for this to occur. Otherwise, winds will generally be between 5-10 kts from the north before shifting to the northeast later into the TAF period. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Muscha AVIATION...Naylor