Tan-Tar-A Snow Report

978 FXUS63 KEAX 050533 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1133 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 ...06z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures continue to cool through late week, with chances (15-25%) for light rain/drizzle across northern MO tonight/tomorrow. - Increasing chances (40-60%) for overnight lows at/below freezing Friday night into Saturday morning. - Drier, warmer forecast by late weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 The closed low situated over the western Great Lakes has not made much progress over the last several hours. This has helped to keep our area under a persistent pattern of low cloud cover through the afternoon, and will remain the case as the closed low slowly shifts northeastward. With weak ascent in the lowest levels paired with some residual low-level moisture, could see continued chances for sporadic, isolated mist/sprinkles through the rest of the day. As the low lifts off towards the northeast, increasing entrainment of drier air on the southwest edge of the cyclone will erode away at clouds, clearing out skies overnight tonight. Despite clearing skies and increasing subsidence with height rises behind the cyclone, winds will remain just strong enough out of the west to prevent the nocturnal boundary layer from decoupling substantially. This will keep temperatures within the low 40s across the area, and additionally mitigate any fog development overnight. Tomorrow, a cold front will drape southeastward from the retreating surface cyclone, shifting winds out of the north/northwest and reintroducing low clouds to the area by the afternoon. With this frontal boundary, some low (15-25%) chances for additional light rain exists across northern MO, where greater moisture remains present through the vertical profile. However, with increasing synoptic-scale subsidence on the back edge of the retreating trough and a building surface high during the day, the profile looks to quickly dry out. Temperatures remain in the 50s during the daytime, before winds shift out of the north with the oncoming surface high and cool temperatures down more by the end of the work week. As amplified upper-level ridging establishes itself over the central CONUS, sustained northerly winds will provide strong CAA across the forecast area. The current forecast shows that temperatures will fall to the low 30s and even the high 20s Friday night into Saturday morning. These temperatures coupled with light winds hints at favorable conditions for frost/freeze, especially for northeastern KS and portions of northern/central MO. Probabilistic guidance favors temperatures falling below freezing across these areas (40- 60%) , with recent guidance trending colder. Forecast trends will need to continue to be monitored, and the need for any headline issuances for frost/freeze may need to be considered in the upcoming days, especially if these trends continue. By the weekend, broad troughing over the southwestern CONUS gradually shifts eastward across the Gulf Coast, with low amplitude ridging settling across the northern half of the CONUS. Increasingly dry atmospheric profiles with building ridging from the west will keep precipitation out of the forecast, with temperatures beginning to warm into the 60s by the late weekend under clear skies. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 Main concern within the TAF period revolves around MVFR ceilings. Model/guidance trends have pointed towards the return of an MVFR cloud deck to the area, and would affect all TAF sites. The arrival of the MVFR will be from the north, yielding KSTJ first. At this time have first MVFR mentions by around 14z at KSTJ and then 17z-18z for the KC Metro sites. Given trends and various model soundings, once the deck sets in, it may stick around through the remainder of the TAF period. Otherwise, winds shift more northwesterly to northerly after 12z with sustained winds around 10kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SPG AVIATION...Curtis