Tan-Tar-A Snow Report

251 FXUS63 KEAX 240829 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 329 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and dry Thursday - Rain chances return Friday and into the weekend with the chance (20-30%) for isolated, non-severe thunderstorms Saturday along the KS/MO border && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 We have at least one more day of pleasant Fall weather and dry conditions as the 500mb blocking pattern, the pair of high pressure systems over the Great Lakes and the Gulf coast, keeps the ridge over our area from moving out quickly. However, upper level saturation will bring clouds back into our area throughout the day Thursday. This cloud cover and light easterly flow at the surface will keep temperatures in the 70s today. Overnight, the ridge over the central US begins to weaken as a shortwave trough starts to develop over the Rockies. An associated surface low begins to develop and the high pressure to our NE begins to exit, supporting southerly flow to our west bringing warm moist air. Over our area, isentropic ascent will trigger the initial lift needed for rain in our area, primarily in NW MO. There are no major concerns for thunderstorms Friday morning because the low-level clouds and weak lapse rates will keep instability low. 500mb heights continue to fall Friday night into Saturday as the shortwave and deepening surface low progress east which will support better lift and better chances (70-90% north of I-70 and 50-70% south) for rain across the entire CWA with a 20-30% chance for isolated thunderstorms primarily along the KS/MO border north of I-70. Rain will stick around for much of the weekend as another blocking pattern forms at 500mb as high pressure over the Great Lakes is sandwiched between a developing Nor`easter over the Mid-Atlantic and a deepening trough over the Pacific NW. Southerly flow will continue to bring warmer air into our region and the 500mb ridge starts to build back into the area Sunday so rain chances will diminish throughout the day Sunday. However, this ridge will have to contend with the Nor`easter that sets up shop off the North Atlantic coast and tries to stick around early next week. This could keep the ridge from progressing as far east, keeping rain chances around for a little longer and keeping us cooler. If the ridge is able to progress into our area Monday we could see slightly warmer temperatures in the mid 80s. We are also watching for another chance of rain in the middle of next week as models have the 500mb trough over the Pacific NW deepening and moving into the central US.The exact timing of this system however, will depend on how quickly the Nor`easter moves off of the NE Atlantic coast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. High clouds will build in from the west during the daylight hours Thursday. Winds will be light out of the ESE through the forecast period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Krull/IPC AVIATION...IPC