Tan-Tar-A Snow Report

942 FXUS63 KEAX 100509 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1209 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for far east-central Kansas into central Missouri until Wednesday evening. * A Heat Advisory is in effect for areas generally north of I-70 until 8PM tonight. Confidence in reaching criteria over the next few days is lower due to rain potential and cloud cover, so taking a day-by-day approach to heat headlines. * Overnight showers and storms possible (10-30% chance) nightly tonight through Wednesday morning, primarily across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri. More widespread rain chances return overnight Wednesday and Thursday (50-60% chance north of I-70). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Early morning showers and storms persisted later than anticipated courtesy of an area of isentropic lift stretching from our southwest into our northeast. Cloud debris has abated some of the heat, but even so, temperatures are expected to continue rising into the low/mid 90s this afternoon with heat indices above 100F for the majority of the area. Areas north of I-70 and near the MO/KS border may be able to realize heat indices of 105F or greater having received more solar heating so far today. Though the heat expected south of I-70 today is less intense than previously forecast, several locations are still on track to see heat indices around 105F with multiple more days of oppressive heat to come as the ridge builds overhead. Gusty southerly winds are expected to persist until sunset tonight before the pressure gradient shifts southward. There is some indication of breezy conditions continuing tomorrow, though with a less impressive gradient. Currently, the only heat product that extends beyond this evening is the Extreme Heat Warning for far east-central Kansas into central Missouri. North of I-70, confidence in reaching Heat Advisory criteria is lower. Several shortwaves are expected to pass through the region or just to the north over the coming days, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Timing is such that these shortwaves would also receive support from the low-level jet as it noses into southern Nebraska and Iowa. Moreover, these features will be interacting with a surface boundary bobbing between the I-80 and US-36 corridors between now and Wednesday morning. These fluctuations introduce some uncertainty as to where showers/storms may be able to develop, but even if development occurs to our north, northwesterly mid/upper-level flow may help guide showers/storms into the northern portions of the CWA almost nightly. Some storms may be capable of producing strong winds with northern portions of the CWA highlighted in an SPC Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather both tomorrow and Tuesday. Even though the probability of showers and storms is low through Wednesday morning (only a 10-30% chance across northern MO), circumstances not too dissimilar from this morning could limit the amount of insolation and consequently prevent portions of the area from reaching Heat Advisory criteria. Wednesday, the surface boundary is expected to slide to the south as a cold front before stalling in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor. Where exactly the boundary stops will have implications for temperatures on Thursday. On the north side, temperatures are likely to be in the upper 70s to low 80s compared to the low/mid 90s on the south side. Precipitation chances will also increase as the boundary sinks south, with a 50-60% chance of showers/storms north of I-70 late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. Brief opportunity for KSTJ to see residual storm activity in the next hour or two, but confidence remains low on any additional weather through the night at all terminals. Anticipating LLWS at northernmost tier of terminals due to the shifting LLJ, but not entirely confident it will reach as far south as KIXD, so have left mentions out of this issuance. Will need to evaluate through the night to determine if threat still exists before next TAF issuance. Else, winds prevailing south/southwesterly around 5-10 kts through the period, with opportunity for gusts up to 20-25 kts by 17-18z tomorrow. Expecting high clouds to build in through the overnight, but not anticipating any reductions in ceilings. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ039-040- 043>046-053-054. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ057-060. && $$ DISCUSSION...Macko AVIATION...SPG