Tan-Tar-A Snow Report

200 FXUS63 KEAX 310722 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 222 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above normal temperatures expected through the forecast period. - Heat Advisory for much of the area through at least Wednesday - Highs in the mid 90s to low 100s - Heat index values in the 100 to 105 range - Overnight lows warm in the mid 70s to lower 80s - Slight chance (15%-25%) of storms across far northern Missouri Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 The main forecast concern will continue to be the prolonged well above normal temperatures. This will come courtesy of a upper level ridge whose axis will be centered over the area today into tomorrow. This coupled with modest WAA will allow highs to rise into the mid 90s to the low 100s today and tomorrow. Fortunately, dewpoints in the low to mid-60s will hold heat index values in the 100 to 105 range. By Wednesday, the ridge axis will slide eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. However, the local area will remain under the influence of this feature keeping highs in the mid 90s to near 100. Although temperatures may be a few degrees cooler Wednesday due to minor height falls, moisture will slowly rise across the area with dewpoints creeping into the mid to upper 60s. This will yield continued heat index values between 100-105 with some areas south of the Missouri rising above 105. These very hot daytime conditions coupled with nighttime lows providing little relief remaining in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the urban core of Kansas City has prompted the issuance of a heat advisory today through Wednesday. The best chance for precipitation this week across the forecast area will come Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the upper level ridge slides far enough eastward where the local area is on the western periphery. A couple weak shortwaves rounding the ridge may bring a few showers (15-25%) to far northern Missouri otherwise, expect conditions to continue to remain dry and hot. Highs Thursday will remain in the mid to upper 90 and heat index values will remain in the 100-105 range which may prompt an upgrade to a excessive heat warning (due to the duration of the heat to 4 days or more). Friday, the upper level ridge begins to retrograde back to the west with the ridge axis moving back over the local area. Highs again will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the 100-105 range. Perhaps the best chance for precipitation this forecast period will come next weekend when shortwaves rounding the ridge acts to try and flatten it bringing slight (15-25%) storm chances. This however, will remain to be seen, as while the GFS favors the aforementioned solution, the EC depicts a much stronger and amplified ridge than the GFS which would keep any precipitation well north of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the period. Winds persist out of the south veering a little southwest after sunrise. Intermittent gusts continue through the overnight becoming more frequent after mid morning. Some diurnal CU is expected but cloud bases are anticipated to be ~10,000ft or higher. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ003>008-012>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053- 054. KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ025- 057-060-102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...Pesel