Alpine Valley Snow Report

082 FXUS63 KDTX 030802 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 302 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild and breezy today with near record high temperatures and gusty winds up to 30 mph. - Mild conditions continue Wednesday with light rain likely. && .DISCUSSION... A period of high magnitude warmth by early November standards set to emerge over the next 24 hours. This development driven by increasing depth of southerly flow within an increasing upper level height field. This occurs in response to the establishment and gradual northeast ejection of a deep closed low now over the central plains. Early day low cloud will give way to a mix of sun and clouds today as the existing warm front surges north of the area and associated warm air advection strengthens with time. A modestly mixed profile will certainly support peak afternoon readings well into the 70s - nearing record territory of mid 70s most locations. Some gustiness to the prevailing south flow expected, peaking in excess of 30 mph at times. Very mild conditions to prevail into tonight, as readings struggle to dip much below 60 degrees - a solid 20 degrees above average. Aforementioned closed mid level system forecast to slowly lift from the central plains to near Lake Superior thru Thursday. Greater northward moisture transport occurs within the belt of deeper southerly flow immediately downstream and out ahead of the attendant cold front, with the northern extent reaching southeast Michigan by early Wednesday. While better moisture quality may tend to hold across the Ohio valley, this process will bring an increasing probability for light shower development throughout the daylight period. Mild resident thermal profile still entrenched with shower potential simply taking the edge off slightly relative to the peak noted Tuesday. Highs upper 60s to near 70 degrees, with gusty southerly conditions again reaching 30 mph at times. Cold front moves through Wednesday night, offering another window for some frontally forced pockets of showers to develop. Area settles within the dry slot for Thursday as the system slowly occludes to the northwest. Modest cold air advection initially with low level flow still out of the southwest, leaving temperatures still above average during the day. A strong mid level wave of polar origin will dig southward into the existing height fall center as the entire trough axis pivots thru the area Thursday night into Friday. An uptick in shower production plausible with a model signal for some degree of fgen to emerge as the secondary frontal zone sags southeast beneath the parent upper trough. Notably cooler and potentially unsettled conditions lasting into the weekend period, as the existing upper trough exits while a trailing wave anchors the next shot for meaningful rain toward the end of the weekend. && .MARINE... Broad low pressure consolidates over the western Great Lakes tonight before occluding on Wednesday. This system directs moderate southerly wind across the region today into tomorrow, though the inbound warm air will result in increasing low-level stability over the lakes that will limit the higher magnitude wind from mixing down. Gusts to 25 kt are expected over the open waters of Lake Huron, while the nearshore waters are forecast to peak around 20 kt given shorter fetch. Similar conditions persist into Wednesday with a slight uptick in wind speed while wind direction backs to southeast. This will likely necessitate a Small Craft Advisory along the Thumb shoreline as wave heights build over 4 feet. A cold front brings high coverage of light showers across the area late in the day and into Wednesday night with wind veering to southwest behind the front. The weakening low pressure slowly meanders across the western Great Lakes on Thursday before a stronger cold front tracks southward across the region on Friday. This brings moderate north and northeast winds that shift northwest by Saturday, as well as additional light rainfall. && .CLIMATE... Record high max temperatures for November 3rd: Detroit: 76 Degrees (Set in 2015) Flint: 79 Degrees (Set in 2015) Saginaw: 74 Degrees (Set in 2015) && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1157 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 AVIATION... Elongated area of low pressure over central CONUS continues to govern conditions across the airspace overnight into Tuesday. Widespread MVFR ceilings have started to flirt with IFR, with a more cohesive plume of IFR upstream and lifting into SE Michigan. Dry air however is observed over Indiana and will begin to eat into the IFR ceilings by 09z at DTW/DET/YIP up to MBS by around 12z. Models are aggressive in drying the low levels with the expectation for low VFR ceilings by daybreak for most of the airspace. Arrival of the surface warm front Tuesday morning veers winds to the southwest with strengthening gradient bringing sustained wind speeds toward 15 knots by mid-day. Low VFR continues to erode through the day, resulting in at least partial clearing by afternoon. For DTW...MVFR ceilings have been flirting with IFR over the past couple of hours, with a broader area of IFR upstream that is on track to reach DTW around 06z. Drier air is pushing north into Indiana, with time of arrival tools and model guidance suggesting an aggressive drying trend to bring ceilings back to MVFR/low VFR between 09z-12z. Ceilings are then forecast to lift above 5000 feet by Tuesday afternoon. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings 5000 ft or less tonight. Moderate Tuesday morning becoming low Tuesday afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......TF CLIMATE......TF AVIATION.....MV You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.