Alta Ski Area Snow Report

747 FXUS65 KSLC 260434 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1034 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - It is increasingly likely that deep tropical moisture from Hurricane Odalys and/or Hurricane Polo will be drawn northward ahead of a strong disturbance Monday into Tuesday. - A slight risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall has been issued by the Weather Prediction Center for southern Utah between 12Z Monday and 12Z Tuesday. - This will bring an increased risk for flash flooding across national parks and recreation areas across southern through east-central Utah on Monday and potentially into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION...A weak shortwave ridge is building into Utah this evening ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting across the PacNW and Idaho, and as subtle low pressure over eastern Utah earlier today lifts northeast away from the area. Convection from earlier this afternoon has mostly waned, leaving patchy midlevel clouds. Meanwhile, the trough to the northwest will continue to eject into western Montana. This will push a cold front into northern Utah tonight, dropping temperatures a few degrees there through Saturday. The weather will be otherwise benign on Saturday, with drier and more stable conditions under a somewhat breezy southwest flow. Models are still consistent in lifting a vort max originating near Hurricane Odalys through Utah on Sunday. This will bring increased moisture to the area, leading to isolated to widely scattered convection, mainly over the higher terrain. This will start priming the airmass for the next storm system Monday and Tuesday, which looks increasingly likely to tap tropical moisture. Cluster analysis of global ensembles are coming together on the idea of the splitty solution with a closed low tracking across Arizona on Tuesday. Meanwhile, models are also favoring Hurricane Polo to cross into northwest Mexico Tuesday morning before its remnants move into New Mexico. The pattern favors tropical moisture being ingested into the southwesterlies ahead of the closed low, and model QPF has been increasing. However, the question is how much of this moisture makes it into Utah, given the southerly track of the low. While the bulk of the moisture will remain south and east of Utah, there are indications that portions of southern and southeast Utah will likely receive widespread precipitation and potentially significant amounts. The latest NBM has 25th percentile amounts Monday through Tuesday of a third to a half an inch across southern through southeast Utah, while the 75th percentile has widespread 1.25-1.5 inches with locally greater than 1.75 inches between St George and Kanab. Looking at it a different way, the southern third of Utah has roughly a 30-55% chance of exceeding 1 inch of rain between 12z Monday and 12z Wednesday. There is a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall in that area Monday morning through Monday night. Meanwhile, northern Utah currently has less than a 30% chance of seeing even 0.5 inches over the same period (except over mountains). Will continue to monitor developments to see if any hydro highlights are needed for southern Utah in the near future. Cooler temperatures are expected areawide Monday through Tuesday, with afternoon maxes falling to 3-10 degrees below normal. Temperatures should rebound as the low exits the area Wednesday afternoon. However, there are uncertainties regarding the large- scale pattern for the latter half of the week, with ensembles split between another trough moving into the area and ridging or zonal flow patterns. && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Southeast wind will persist overnight through Saturday morning, however there is a 30% chance for a temporary switch to northwest during the 10-14Z window, before southeasterly winds become reestablished late tonight. A return to northwest winds will occur during the 18-19Z timeframe Saturday. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at all terminals. Light, diurnally driven winds through Saturday morning will be followed by gusty south to southwest winds by midday Saturday at most terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1219 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026... Afternoon convection will continue to develop across the higher terrain and adjacent valleys of southern Utah this afternoon and evening, bringing gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms. As a strong Pacific disturbance approaches the region, gusty southerly winds will develop across western Utah Saturday, with gusts up to 30 mph expected. These winds will combine with humidities near 15% to bring elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions to western Utah Saturday afternoon and evening. These winds will redevelop Sunday afternoon and evening, with gusts to 35 mph...and humidities again near 15%, bringing locally critical fire conditions to a similar area Sunday afternoon and evening. There is an increasing potential for tropical moisture from either/both Hurricanes Polo and Odalys to spread northeast into the Great Basin ahead of the previously mentioned upper level system. This would bring an extended period of moderate to heavy rain across southern and eastern Utah Monday into early Tuesday morning. While the other 25% of guidance keeps any tropical moisture away from the region, it still brings widespread wetting rains as the upper level system crosses the area. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Cheng AVIATION...Seaman FIRE WEATHER...Kruse For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity