Bears Den Mountain Snow Report

209 FXUS63 KFGF 120417 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a high chance for soaking rainfall Sunday night into Monday night across the region which could impact outdoor activities. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 ...Synopsis... A cold front is pushing through the Northern Plains this afternoon, keeping temperatures in the north in the 60s. Meanwhile ahead of the front in far southeastern ND into west central MN, temperatures have reached the mid 80s, and dew points have climbed into the mid 60s, creating a narrow, couple of county wide axis of instability. As the cold front propagates through during the late afternoon and evening hours, thunderstorms are anticipated to develop, some of which will become strong to severe. Over the weekend, a large upper low will dig into the Pacific Northwest. Tracking eastward by late Sunday into Monday, widespread rain is forecasted for the Northern Plains. Behind this system, zonal flow will keep temperatures in the 60s most days. Rising heights late next week may bring a few 70s back into the forecast. ...Severe Risk Today... A cold front pushing eastward will provide the catalyst for thunderstorm development late this afternoon into the evening hours. Latest satellite imagery shows a developing stratocumulus field ahead of the front in Grant, Otter Tail and Wadena Counties. Capping is forecast to erode between 4 and 5 o`clock. As it erodes, the expectation is for storms to develop along the front, which should then be situated in the western reaches of the current SPC severe weather level 2 out of 5 risk area. Storms will have a narrow but rich axis of instability to work with, with MLCAPE approaching 3000 J/Kg, and effective shear of around 40 knots. Meanwhile, across eastern South Dakota, a surface low is propagating eastward/northeastward. In west central MN, closer to where this surface low will be located by this evening, more low level curvature within hodographs will foster the potential for a tornado or two. Further north (especially north of US Highway 2), hodographs are straighter, keeping the severe risk tied more to a hail and wind threat instead of tornado. One big question is how quickly storm mode becomes messy. The front should provide strong enough forcing for several updrafts to go up at once. If this occurs, the window for truly discrete storms will be shorter, leaving the potential for significant hail and a tornado or two shorter in duration. Activity will cluster and grow upscale as it pushes eastward, leaving our FA around 10 PM this evening. ...Late Weekend into Early Next Week Rainfall... A large upper low over the Pacific Northwest will propagate eastward towards the Northern Plains late Sunday into Monday. Very little instability appears in place, therefore severe weather is not expected. However, as the low tracks from southwest to northeast across the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, rainfall will overspread the region from west to east Sunday night, lasting into Monday. While there remains uncertainty in where the deformation band and heaviest rainfall will set up, with NBM probabilities for a half inch of rain is about 60 percent across the entire FA. && .AVIATION /04Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Currently VFR skies across the area with winds having dropped for the overnight. Winds NW at all sites and remaining as such through the period. DVL will be the first to see gusts picking up tomorrow in stronger low level flow around 11-12z with other sites waiting for daytime mixing to get going around 15z. Peak afternoon gusts should stay under 30 knots but cant entirely rule out a few gusts over 30kts for KDVL and KGFK from 15-21z. some developing late morning/early afternoon cumulus could flirt with MVFR cigs but look to remain 3500ft or higher as SCT even at that. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rafferty AVIATION...TT