Bears Den Mountain Snow Report

273 FXUS63 KFGF 230828 CCA AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusting to 70 mph will be the main threats. && .UPDATE... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Patchy fog has developed over parts of northwest MN, but impacts have been very brief/localized in the KTVF area. I can`t rule out other fog impacts during the morning period due to broad surface ridging and near calm winds along/east of the RRV, however the saturated layer is very shallow and tendency will be for highly localized pockets of ground fog. Looking ahead to Monday`s severe chances: There has continued to be a trend over the last 24hr on guidance favoring the frontal zone pushing into our CWA during the afternoon. While larger scale forcing is primarily in Canada or mainly during the late evening/overnight, there should be enough lift associated with the front to support a few thunderstorms potentially initiating during the favorable afternoon/evening period when SBCAPE/DCAPE could be maximized near the frontal zone. Due to increasing mid/upper level flow effective shear values greater than 35kt+ are advertised with generally straight hodographs supportive of splitting supercells. Discrete cells could support sig hail potential, though with shear profiles orientation in relation to the cold front mergers may be more likely if coverage increases. Higher DCAPE and mix layers higher gusts could accompany RFD`s, though weaker 0-3km shear lowers confidence in a larger sig wind threat. The best chance for thunderstorms is actually later as the main wave passes to the north in Canada and better forcing moves through our region. If thunderstorms fail to initiate early on, the tendency would be for lower impacts from thunderstorm activity that would be much more elevated in nature later in the evening/overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow prevails through the forecast period, with the passage of several shortwaves. A weak system moves into central and southeast North Dakota on Sunday, with low chances for a passing afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Best chances will be further west, however. A better chance for showers and storms will occur late Monday into Tuesday, when a stronger shortwave moves southeast out of Manitoba and into northwest and north central Minnesota. This will bring us a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Moving into Tuesday, parts of northwest Minnesota could see an additional round of showers as weak shortwave activity continues. H5 ridging over the western CONUS is expected to flatten, thus weakening our northwest flow heading into the second half of next week. Ensemble guidance suggests additional rain chances as we head into Friday and Saturday, but will ultimately depend on the speed and progression of antecedent shortwave activity and shifts in the overall pattern. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday... There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening as a moderately strong shortwave pushes across the area. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will be in place during peak heating, with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Modeled surface CAPE ranges from 1500 to 2500 J/Kg across various ensembles and deterministic NAM/NAM Nest. Low to mid level shear is marginal, especially further ahead of the cold front. Hodographs, however, are relatively straight and have a degree of consistency in model soundings. If storms are able to form, there should be just enough shear to allow a mention of supercells, with a chance for splitting supercells or hybrid clusters. In a higher impact scenario, supercells form, bringing potential hazards including wind gusts upwards of 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. If atmospheric support shifts more towards clusters, the potential hazards could include wind gusts upwards of 70 mph and hail up to the size of ping pong balls. Alternatively, in a lower end scenario, storms form later in the evening and severe storms become less likely, but could still support elevated hail producing storms during the late evening and overnight. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Cirrus moving in from the west, with all sites remaining VFR throughout the period. Winds will become light and variable, and can`t completely rule out some patchy ground fog. However, not a very strong signal and will not include in the TAFs. Winds will begin to increase out of the southeast for the ND airports during the day tomorrow. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...JR