Blue Mountain Snow Report

531 FXUS61 KCLE 160726 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 326 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The risk for flash flooding due to heavy rainfall is decreasing, due to highest rainfall amount displaced just south of our forecast area. Therefore, the flood watch has been cancelled. Heavy rain will still likely accompany scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and could pose an isolated, localized flash flood risk. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through this evening with heavy rain potentially leading to localized flooding. A few stronger storms may produce gusty winds. 2) A line of showers and thunderstorms will move southeast across the area on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Latest satellite imagery shows an MCV located over the central portion of our forecast area. Scattered rain showers accompany this MCV and will continue through the this morning before the MCV departs to the east by sunrise. Very limited instability should prevent additional heavy rain and subsequent flash flood threat through most of this morning. Therefore, the flood watch has been cancelled a few hours early. Another shortwave is working its way across northern Illinois and will become the focus for additional convective development this afternoon. Most hi-res models are keying in convection beginning to develop near the I-75 corridor early this afternoon, and growing upscale as it moves eastward across the rest of the area. Sufficient build-up of moderate instability and the presence of deep layer shear around 20-30 knots should support a marginal severe weather threat. Strong gusty winds will be the primary severe weather hazard. An extremely humid airmass characterized by PWAT in the 2-2.25" range and surface dew points in the low to mid 70s will support efficient, heavy rainfall within any thunderstorm that traverses the area. Progressive nature of convection this afternoon should prevent a widespread flooding issue, but particularly vulnerable areas (such as urban areas, or locations that have received excessive rainfall in the past few days) could pose a localized flash flood risk. Isolated to scattered rain showers will linger Sunday night into Monday morning across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will move southeastward across the area on Wednesday, with a line of showers thunderstorms moving impacting the region. Confidence continues to increase in area/timing, with PoPs increasing to 60-80% areawide, particularly during the afternoon hours. Severe weather is a possibility, though its questionable how much instability there will be to work with. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Scattered showers will continue to slowly move east across the area through early morning before exiting to the east at around 12Z. The best chance of precip will be east of KTOL/KFDY and south of KCLE/KERI, but a few showers may clip KCLE early this morning. Guidance suggests that stratus and patchy fog will develop by early morning so have widespread MVFR at most terminals this morning and possibly into this afternoon, but there will likely be periods of VFR conditions which may prompt amendments/forecast adjustments. Localized IFR (and possibly LIFR) conditions are likely. The next round of showers and storms will push east into the vicinity of KTOL/KFDY by mid to late morning before reaching eastern terminals by late afternoon. There is still uncertainty in the exact timing and placement of showers/storms so have prevailing showers with PROB30 groups for thunderstorms for the time being. Any afternoon/evening showers and storms could produce non-VFR ceilings and visibilities. Low clouds may develop at eastern terminals behind the precip this evening. Winds will shift to the southwest this morning into this afternoon with sustained winds increasing to about 10 knots this afternoon. Periodic gusts to 20 knots are possible this afternoon into early this evening, primarily at KTOL/KFDY/KMFD. Wind gusts may be variable and higher in thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. Winds will become westerly after 00Z. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and lower ceilings across NE OH and NW PA through early Monday morning. Non-VFR possible Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds on Lake Erie will shift to the southwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots during the day today before becoming northwesterly behind a cold front by early Monday morning. Flow briefly becomes light and variable late Monday into early Tuesday and expect southwest flow between 10 and 15 knots Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. Winds will then shift to the northwest and diminish behind another cold front during the day Wednesday. Light onshore flow is expected for much of Thursday. At this point, marine headlines are not expected over the next few days. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Saunders AVIATION...15 MARINE...15