Bottineau Winter Park Snow Report

753 FXUS63 KBIS 040700 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 200 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense fog across northwest and north central North Dakota through mid Friday morning. - Critical fire weather conditions in far southwest North Dakota Friday afternoon and evening. - Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Labor Day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 Dense fog is rapidly expanding across northwest and north central North Dakota. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for most areas along and north of Highway 200 until 10 AM CDT. The fog may continue to expand southward into early Friday morning. UPDATE Issued at 1011 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 Forecast for tonight remains on track. Showers and storms have exited well off to the east of North Dakota. Light and variable winds are still expected over the next few hours before winds increase and become more uniform out of the southeast by sunrise Friday morning. UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 The forecast for this evening into tonight remains generally on track. Isolated showers and storms remain over portions of far northern North Dakota. This activity is expected to gradually move eastward into northeast North Dakota over the next few hours or so. Main concerns will be limited to occasional lightning strikes and brief heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 Current surface analysis places low stretching from central into northeastern South Dakota, with high over eastern Montana. Upper level analysis places low off the Pacific Northwest coast, with ridge through the Upper Midwest. Over our area, main area of severe storms has now pushed into Minnesota, while some additional showers and storms continue to develop over north central North Dakota. For the rest of this afternoon, showers and some storms will continue to develop and push through northern and eastern portions of our area, mainly over north central North Dakota. With that said, believe the severe risk has backed off for us given the widespread morning convection we had which really "washed out" the atmosphere, which has yet to recover to make severe a great possibility. By this evening, precipitation should be to the east of our area with a quiet night on tap. Friday will bring notably warmer temperatures to many locations, especially to the south and west, with quiet weather expected. With that said, south to southeasterly winds will be on the increase as a surface low deepens over southeast Montana into parts of northeast Wyoming. Notably drier air is expected over our far southwest resulting in low humidity values. This will combine with the aforementioned winds and dry fuels to bring critical fire weather conditions to Slope and Bowman Counties, and near critical conditions to many other parts of southwest/west central North Dakota. A weak wave moving through the area Saturday night may result in a few showers/storms overnight. On Saturday, warm airmass remains well situated over the area with upper ridge centered just to our east and upper low situated over the Pacific Northwest. Short waves pushing up the flow ahead of the low start pushing into the area starting precipitation chances. On Sunday, surface low shifts to our south/southwest with moist east to southeasterly flow increasing moisture over our area. A variety of waves eject around the upper low bringing increasing chances for precipitation, particularly towards evening when guidance is showing widespread rain over much of the area. This continues into Monday as the low starts ejecting to the northeast. Pattern then remains a bit unsettled as we approach mid-week with near daily low precipitation chances and temperatures that are closer to average. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 IFR to LIFR conditions from fog and low ceilings are expected across northern North Dakota through mid Friday morning, and could expand southward early Friday morning. The fog and low clouds should lift by Friday afternoon, with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will become southeast on Friday and strengthen to 15-25 kts, with gusts up to 35 kts in western parts of the state during the afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NDZ001>004- 009-010-012-013-022-023-025-055>058. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NDZ040-043. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Hollan