Bottineau Winter Park snow report

863 FXUS63 KBIS 270640 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 140 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms tonight. A few stronger storms will be possible. - Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Expected hazards include hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 mph, with a tornado possible. - Additional isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Monday. - Near to above normal temperatures are favored this weekend through the middle of next week, warming to well above normal heading into the Forth of July holiday weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Made some fairly significant changes to POPs from the inherited forecast, which didn`t take into account convection firing up over south central North Dakota over the past couple of hours. Other forecast elements were mostly on track. Nocturnal low level jet along with a plume of elevated instability with MUCAPE to 1K J/kg contributing to scattered convection, strong at times, over south central ND. Expect this activity to continue over the next several hours, spreading north and east, as the instability plume and LLJ continue to migrate northeast across my central and east. As mentioned above, POPs were modified based on latest radar and trends/latest CAM outputs. UPDATE Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 Dry weather generally persists across western and central North Dakota at the time of this mid evening update, though scattered weak radar returns can be found over portions of the far north central. Have tweaked short term PoPs, pulling low chances further west to account for these returns. Upstream in southeastern Montana and northwestern South Dakota, showers and thunderstorms can be found. The stronger storms continue to develop off the topography found in this area, though quickly weaken as the move off further to the north and east. With mesoanalysis reveals that the best CAPE and shear remains very elevated across the forecast area, we remain skeptical for much more than general thunder moving into the area over the next few hours. CAMs continue to hint at a isolated stronger storm moving into the southwest/south central in the early overnight period, though confidence in this is very low. UPDATE Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 Low level stratus persists across much of western and central North Dakota at the time of this early evening update, though some clearing can be found across the far southwest. Upstream in northeastern Wyoming showers and thunderstorms have begun to developing over the terrain in the Black Hills, and are expected to lift toward southeastern North Dakota through the late evening into the early overnight period. Isolated strong to marginally severe storms will be possible (low chance) as they move into the southwest, though the window for this will be brief. Showers and general thunderstorms will continue to move to the north and east overnight. Have made some minor adjustments to the sky cover with the forecast, though otherwise the forecast remains in good shape at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 A weak mid level shortwave is lifting northeastward through the eastern half of the state this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon from the Turtle Mountains through the James River Valley. CAPE and shear are not forecast to become sufficient to support stronger convection. An upper level ridge is forecast to move over western North Dakota tonight, but it could be undercut by mid level southwest flow with embedded shortwave energy. One to several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to develop near the mountains of central Montana this evening and quickly move eastward toward western North Dakota by around midnight. Some CAMs maintain stronger convection in southwest North Dakota late tonight as both MUCAPE and effective bulk shear increase in response to a strengthening low level jet. The intensity of convection will ultimately be dictated by the CAPE/shear parameter space of the elevated inflow layer, which may not necessarily be the most unstable layer. Nevertheless, there is a low probability for a marginally severe thunderstorm in southwest North Dakota late tonight, with no greater than baseline hazards expected (quarter size hail and/or 60 mph wind gusts). Scattered showers and thunderstorms may continue to propagate northeastward through the night into Saturday morning as the low level jet slides eastward. Persistent southerly flow ahead of a lee surface trough will promote strong moisture transport on Saturday, but mid level capping is likely to prevent surface-based convection prior to late afternoon. Surface winds could approach advisory criteria across all but far western North Dakota Saturday afternoon, with sustained speeds around 20 to 30 mph and gusts to near 45 mph. It will also be warmer and more humid for most areas, with dewpoints in the 60s and highs around 90 in the southwest, the mid to upper 70s far north, and 80s in between. By late Saturday afternoon, the lee surface trough is forecast to lie along the ND/MT border, with a potential triple point axis somewhere between Glendive and Williston. Mid level height falls should be spreading into western North Dakota at this time, and an upper level jet streak is also forecast to be pointed toward the Black Hills, placing its left exit region over the lee surface trough. All this combined with strong diurnal heating should sufficiently erode capping to initiate convection in western North Dakota between 5 and 7 PM CDT. Shear vector orientation to surface boundaries tends to favor an initial discrete mode both along the west-to-east warm front across northern North Dakota and along the north-to-south lee trough, although deep-layer mean wind vectors are more parallel to the lee trough which could anchor updrafts to that boundary and cause quicker upscale growth. For any discrete storms, 3000 J/kg CAPE and 0-6 km shear increasing to 40-50 kts through early evening will support very large hail. Because of the potential for mid level dry air entrainment and stronger low level shear/SR inflow, we have limited our most likely maximum hail size forecast to 2 inches in diameter for now. There is at least some risk for a tornado, especially in northwest North Dakota where a more due easterly low-level/surface flow is forecast. Here, the HREF advertises 0-1 km SRH increasing over 100 m^2/s^2 by early evening, with STP in the 1-2 range. There could also be a narrow window in both time and space for a tornado threat to extend southward along the lee trough if storms are able to remain discrete. The HREF shows this potential to be along and west of Highway 83 from around 8 to 10 PM CDT. But latest CAM guidance does tend to favor a quicker transition to a cluster or linear mode on account of increasing synoptic scale forcing and cold pool conglomeration as convection spreads into central North Dakota heading into the overnight hours. Once this occurs, the dominant hazard will transition to damaging winds, which could be widespread and significant. Most, if not all requisite ingredients for +80 mph winds appear to be in place. There is still just enough forecast uncertainty in finer-scale details to limit the most likely maximum wind gust potential to 70 mph in our messaging, but an increase to 80 mph may be needed with future forecast updates. While the tornado threat would be relatively lower with a QLCS than with discrete supercells, it would still be greater than zero. After the severe threat ends late Saturday night (or perhaps early Sunday morning) there is uncertainty in a conditional severe threat on Sunday which could be heavily influenced by how the post-MCS environment evolves. There is high confidence in strong deep layer shear on Sunday, but lower confidence in forcing, the westward extent of moisture/buoyancy, and CIN. This conditional severe threat now appears to extend through Sunday night and into Monday as an upper level low deepens between the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, but there is some ensemble spread in its evolution. Beyond Monday, ensembles broadly favor a southwest flow pattern prevailing through the end of next week, with temperatures trending above normal. After a break on Tuesday, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, resume for the second half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Low VFR to MVFR ceilings at most terminals begin the 06Z TAF period, and will persist through Saturday morning and into Sat afternoon some areas. Overnight, scattered showers and thunderstorms expected, mainly for KBIS and KJMS, and will handle with PROB30 groups. Gusty and erratic winds are possible with any shower or storm. Gusty southeast winds are expected to persist across much of the forecast area tonight, increasing during the day Saturday. LLWS is possible over portions of the far southwest through early Saturday morning, including at KDIK. Another round of thunderstorms, some severe, expected Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...NH DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...NH