Bottineau Winter Park Snow Report

516 FXUS63 KBIS 180632 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 132 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably warm temperatures are expected Saturday, with hot conditions returning Sunday. - Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. - Temperatures are favored to fall closer to normal next week, with forecast highs mostly in the 80s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Just a couple of minor adjustments were made to the near-term forecast for this update. One was to decrease overnight low temperatures as some locations have already fallen below the inherited forecast. The other was to add a mention of patchy fog from south central North Dakota to the James River Valley where surface dewpoint depressions are very low underneath broad high pressure. This should be more of a shallow ground fog type event if it materializes. UPDATE Issued at 949 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 A few models hint at a little patchy fog developing tonight as high pressure centers over the state. However, model forecast soundings suggest very dry air prevailing overall near the surface. Therefore, for the most part, wouldn`t expect much more than very shallow fog mostly confined to fields, lower bridges over streams/rivers, etc. UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Showers that were present in the southwest and south central have generally moved into South Dakota, though are also in the process of dissipating. All in all, the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Currently the large upper level ridge continues over the western United States. This ridge is carrying upper level Monsoon moisture from Arizona, through the northern Rockies, and over through the Dakotas. This moisture has brought in elevated showers into southwest North Dakota this morning, and they now continue in the south central. Along with these showers is a large area of mid level clouds across the southern half of the state. These clouds are prohibiting anymore diurnal heating, and most of the south is stuck in the upper 70s. This area will likely not hit the NBM high of the lower 90s. This weekend the very hot ridge will continue, leading to high temperatures back in the lower 100s by Sunday. Saturday night a very very slight shortwave could form off the Montana mountains and bring some showers to the state. The NBM chances have really backed off on them this morning, and that is nicely reflected in the global models as well. Sunday the ridge axis moves directly over North Dakota, bringing the warmest temperatures of the weekend in. Expects highs along and west of the Missouri River to be in the lower 100s. We will likely need a Heat Advisory for Sunday. Elsewhere will be in the lower to mid 90s. Sunday evening and night a weak cold front will sweep through, leading to a very breezy Monday. From this, the north on Monday will be cooler in the upper 70s and lower 80s, while the south will stay in the 90s. Since the state has had very little rain and very hot temperatures, the grasses have started to brown. With the potential of 40 mile per hour northwest winds, the brown grass, and low humidities, we have started to message near-critical fire weather concerns across the southwest on Monday. For the rest of next week, the warming trend will restart after Tuesday. Tuesday the upper level pattern turns to the northwest, leading to the coolest day of the week. Expect highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s south. The rest of the week the ridge builds back in, starting the warming trend all over again. Temperatures could return to the upper 90s by next week. The NBM percentile ranges are starting to hint at that by next Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Some patchy fog could develop from KBIS to KJMS late tonight into early Saturday morning, but think it would be more of a shallow fog scenario. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Expect predominantly south to southeast winds across the western half of the state, with speeds during the day Saturday ranging from near 15 kts at KXWA and KDIK to only around 5 kts at KJMS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Hollan