Bottineau Winter Park snow report

570 FXUS63 KBIS 070833 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 333 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms over northwest North Dakota before sunrise. - Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms over much of western and central North Dakota late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. - Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the north Monday, then more widespread severe weather is possible Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some severe, continue across northwest and portions of north central ND early this morning. The convection is along a surface boundary that extends from far southwest into north central ND, and is a focus form moisture convergence. In addition, very unstable aloft remains over this area with strong shear and a vigorous low level jet in place. Think the threat will trend downward, but the next hour or two could certainly support a few additional severe thunderstorm warnings. Early morning convection should give way to Partly to mostly sunny skies and hot and humid conditions. A strong southerly wind will continue reinforce the humid conditions and help set the stage for another round of severe weather late this afternoon through this evening for most of western and central ND, but could linger into the early overnight hours over eastern portions of central ND. SPC continues to advertise an enhanced risk across much of southwest and central ND in their latest day 1 outlook. This is similar to our thinking and we will continue to message 2 inch hail and 70 mph winds. A very unstable airmass will be in place across western and into central ND Sunday afternoon. While the atmosphere will be capped initially, an approaching upper low and its attendant cold front will provide the forcing for ascent to initiate convection over western ND late Sunday afternoon. Deep layer shear of 40-50 knots will be in place with very steep lapse rates. This environment will be favorable for supercell development. The more robust storms would be able to support large hail to 2 inches, or possibly larger. There looks to be a limited timeframe for discrete cells given the orientation of the deep shear vectors with the cold front. However, very large hail, damaging wind gusts and and possibly a tornado can`t be ruled out Sunday afternoon over western ND. A quick transition to a linear system is expected and thereafter the main threat, but during the transition there will may be a mixed mode of a linear system and rotating supercells. Once the transition is complete the linear system tracks quickly east across the state. Previous shifts have stated that a number of CAMS have shown bowing segments pushing ahead of the main line. This would indicate strong winds initially but perhaps a weakening of the line as it progresses east into a less favorable shear environment. We`ll see how this plays out. Once convection exits the are late Sunday night, we should see a a brief break in the action on Monday, although a few stronger storms can not be ruled out. It will be much cooler Monday with high sin the mid 70s to mid 80s. On Tuesday, another upper level trough approaches the area with strong bulk shear and a very unstable airmass in place. Another round of severe weather is possible, similar to today, but perhaps a bit farther east. There is still a lot of time before Tuesday so we won`t get to specific. However with SPC already indicating an enhanced risk of severe storms over central ND. This does not happen very often. CSU Machine learning and NSSL machine learning pages are also indicating an early enhanced threat. We will begin by messaging 70 mph winds and 2 inch hail with this event, leaving room to go higher if needed. The rest of the week remains active, but with the upper low in the vicinity. It will turn a bit cooler, which could dampen the severe risk a bit. We`ll see how things play out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms over northwest ND to begin the 06Z TAF period. Isolated thunder also over southwest ND. Central ND is expected to remain rain free tonight. Strong gusty and erratic winds expected with any thunderstorms along with MVFR-IFR visibilities in very heavy downpours. Thunderstorms end 06-12 UTC. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions but a strong southerly surface flow through the remainder of tonight and into Sunday. Sunday afternoon a cold front will move west to east across the area bringing another round of thunderstorms, some will likely be strong to severe. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ004-005-012-013-020-022-023-025- 035>037-042-046>048-050-051-058>062. && $$ DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH