Devil's Head Resort snow report

556 FXUS63 KGRB 220806 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 306 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Next chance for widespread showers and thunder Tuesday night through Wednesday. Risk of severe weather is low. - Near to below normal temperatures most of the week, then more summer-like conditions arrive over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Patchy fog has returned to portions of the northwoods early this morning as high clouds moved out and winds remained light. This fog is not expected to become dense during the morning hours and will depart fairly quickly around sunrise. Quiet weather and sunny skies are then in store for the remainder of the day that will last into Tuesday afternoon. The next round of active weather arrives Tuesday evening. A mid- level trough over the Upper Plains will allow for a period of warm/moist air advection to the region. Showers and some thunder then develop through the overnight hours as a LLJ develops overnight with the exit region point into central to east-central Wisconsin by the early morning hours. Instability ahead of this will be relatively meager, hampered largely by the overnight timing. Thus severe weather potential remains low. PWATs during the overnight period have come up to around 1.25-1.50", which in turn has brought up the overall rainfall totals. Probabilistic guidance now brings a 50-70% chance of exceeding half an inch of rainfall to the region, with much of that falling early Wednesday. Probability of exceeding an inch remains low however, around 15-20%. Therefore would expect this to represent a reasonable locally high amount for the current forecast. The main push of precipitation will likely move through by the morning hours, but some additional showers and non- severe storms may follow during the day Wednesday. Any following afternoon storms will lack the moisture from the overnight period, so rainfall amounts will be much lighter. Thursday continues to have some active weather in the forecast as well, relying largely on diurnally driven instability to produce rainfall. Without significant moisture return and MUCAPE ~400-500 J/kg or less, would expect low potential for any severe weather on Thursday as well. Finally, a pattern shift is expected over the weekend as upper flow becomes more amplified and a broad trough digs into western CONUS. This will bring fairly strong southwesterly flow and allow for much warmer and more moist air to move into the region. Long range models bring high temperatures into the middle to upper 80s by early next week. Active weather could certainly accompany this more unstable airmass and some showers and storms are in the forecast, which does provide some early hints this may be our next chance for some stronger storms, but its early yet to truly assess severe weather details. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Light shower activity persists late this evening from Merrill (RRL) and Tomahawk (TKV) to Iron Mountain (IMT). Cloud bases are generally above 5000 ft within this broken band of showers. Expectations are for this band of showers to dissipate over the next 1-3 hours. Flight conditions will remain VFR. Skies to clear overnight, but a modest northeast wind should prevent ground fog from developing. Scattered fair weather clouds should pop with daytime heating on Monday. Surface winds will turn to the northeast overnight with gusts 15 to 20 knots (50-90% chance) from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore on Monday morning. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann AVIATION.......MPC