Devil's Nest Snow Report

116 FXUS63 KOAX 190536 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1236 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cluster of showers and storms is expected (60-80% chance) to move across eastern Nebraska into far western Iowa early Wednesday morning into early afternoon. The strongest storms may pose a large hail and damaging wind risk. - There is a low chance (20-40%) of additional showers and storms later Wednesday afternoon. The strongest storms may pose a continued severe weather risk. - A warming trend begins on Thursday with temperatures gradually increasing into the 80s. Periodic rain chances (15-30% chance) remain in the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 All is quiet for the moment across our forecast area. To our south, low-level warm advection is supporting a severe weather and flash flooding threat in the Kansas City vicinity. Our next round of storms is just beginning to develop to our west over western Nebraska and western south Dakota. These showers and storms are a bit disorganized with sporadic strong winds at this time. That will change as this activity gradually moves southeast towards our area. An environment characterized by ample shear above 50 kts and MUCAPE values up to 3000 J/kg should favor a gradual strengthening and organization of these storms. Further aiding this will be broad ascent ahead of a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies. While there remains some uncertainty on the level of MLCIN that will develop overnight ahead of these storms. High-res model guidance is in good agreement that a strong to severe thunderstorm complex will move into our area around as early as 4-6 AM CDT early Wednesday morning. This complex is forecast to move southeast through much of eastern Nebraska and perhaps fa western Iowa through the remainder of Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. With this complex, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat from the strongest storms. Gradually, this complex weakens as the nocturnal low-level jet subsides. Later Wednesday afternoon, the forecast becomes a bit uncertain. It is anticipated that morning storms will help push a cold front through the region and end our storm and severe weather threat early. A cooler and more stable airmass filters in behind the front. That said, if the atmosphere can destabilize behind morning storms and ahead of the front, additional showers and storms may develop. These storms would pose at least a low chance of severe weather through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. By Wednesday evening, the front should clear the entire region, thus ending storm chances. By Thursday and beyond, a broad pattern takes shape that changes little through the end of the forecast. This pattern is characterized by a large ridge over the western CONUS with a trough over the eastern CONUS. We will be situated between these features with northwesterly upper-level flow. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm through the 80s to end the week. Except for Thursday, periodic storm chances remain in the forecast. By this weekend our next weather system is forecast to approach the area. This system will mark the return of storm chances and perhaps slightly cooler temperatures. Overall, an ebb and flow of this general pattern of slight warming and perhaps drier weather to slightly cooler weather and storm chances should characterize the remainder of the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 Could see a little fog overnight, though lingering cloud cover should keep it pretty patchy. Showers and storms to our northwest are on track to move through at some point early this morning into early afternoon, though still quite a bit of spread on timing in guidance. Consensus suggests earlier timing of 12-16Z through the area, but a few models are about 4 hours later with strong to severe winds of 40-50+ kts, so will need to closely monitor trends. Outside of storms, expect VFR conditions with light and easterly to northeasterly winds. There are higher chances for fog Wednesday night/Thursday, but should be after 06Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...CA