Eaglecrest Ski Area Snow Report

134 FXAK67 PAJK 200554 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 954 PM AKDT Mon Oct 19 2026 .UPDATE...Update for new long term discussion and 06Z TAF issuance discussion... Minor updates to the forecast this evening as the rain and strong winds continue to build east as the intensifying low lifting into the northern Gulf sends a front east into the panhandle. Made timing changes to marine and wind hazards to better match current guidance. && .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Heavy rain spreading eastward overnight and continuing through Tuesday for northern panhandle. Flood watches in effect. - Wind gusts ranging from 40-55 mph with highest gusts near Yakutat and Skagway. Westerly wind shift from west to east Tuesday into Tuesday night. - Thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoons and overnight into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM...Modest changes to the ongoing forecast as the strong system moves into the NE gulf coast. Looking on satellite, a bulk of the higher IVT and warm moisture plume appears to be moving over the NE gulf coast, with Yakutat beginning to see heavier rain rates of 0.2 to 0.3 inches per hour. Similarly, easterly winds are beginning to ramp up in the inside channels. Main changes to the forecast is a slight trend up in rain totals for the Yakutat and Yakutat Bay area based on 12z runs. Rain totals now look to be around the 4.5 to 7.0 inch range over a 36 hour period, with amounts further at elevation in Yakutat bay possibly exceeding 10 inches. Slightly trended down the forecast in the Juneau area, as the heaviest rain looks to stay over the Yakutat area for longer. For more information regarding flooding, see the hydrology section. Going into Tuesday afternoon, a sharp cold front sweeping across the panhandle from Yakutat to Ketchikan will quickly transition winds from southerly to westerly, with strong gusts of at least 40 mph along the leading edge. This has prompted an expansion of the wind advisories for Prince of Wales Island. Petersburg and Wrangell areas were excluded as the current thought is the front will shear apart to a degree these areas will not see 40 mph gusts. Furthermore, downgraded Skagway to an advisory, as a bulk of the energy moving northeast from the Prince William Sound area into the northern Yukon area. Therefore, the orientation of the pressure gradient does not look to lend itself toward 60 mph or greater wind gusts at this time. Continued on the thunderstorm chances along the cold front sweeping westward to at least the Fairweather range. Behind the front, stronger lapse rates, divergence aloft, down to -35 Celsius temperatures around 500 mb, and CAPE values of around 400 J/kg could lead to some isolated thunderstorm chances along the coastline, with highest chances along the NE gulf coast north of Cape Spencer. .LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/...Onshore flow with at times moderate showers continue for Thursday with the stacked but weakening low lingering over the northern Gulf. The low will shift southeast and weaken further Thursday night into Friday, with showers diminishing from north to south across the panhandle. Any lingering showers across the southern panhandle should by Friday afternoon. A few lingering snow showers possible for Thursday along the Klondike Highway and the upper reaches of the Haines Highway but any accumulations would be minimal. As the low departs to the southeast, ensemble and deterministic guidance generally show upper-level ridge over mainland Alaska shifting east and settling over SEAK Friday into the weekend, with clearing skies and drier offshore flow developing. Gusty northerly winds could develop along the northern highway into Lynn Canal. Daytime highs will remain in the 40s throughout the period, with overnight lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION.../through 06Z Wednesday/...Tonight, a strong system near the NE Gulf Coast brings heavy rain and strong winds across most of the region. Worsening conditions are expected to occur within the next few hours near Icy Strait and northward with the initial front. Widespread MVFR conditions (CIGs 1500-2500 ft, VSBY 4-6 SM) will spread eastward. A secondary front reaching the outer panhandle Tuesday morning will cause frequent drops to IFR due to moderate to heavy rain across the Gulf Coast and northern panhandle. Conditions improve slightly from NW to SE starting Tuesday evening, with PAYA potentially returning to low-end VFR by late afternoon. Onshore flow will maintain showery, BKN-OVC 2500-3000 ft CIGs across northern sites through Wednesday morning. Strong winds peak this evening along coastal regions (1525 kt sustained, gusts 35-40 kt) before weakening inland. A lower-level jet (45-55 kt at 2000 ft) shifting from southerly to westerly will bring widespread LLWS and turbulence through Tuesday afternoon. There is also a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms along the NE Gulf Coast late Tuesday through Wednesday morning following the secondary frontal passage. && .MARINE... Inside(Inner Channels): Winds increasing to 25 to 30 kt through evening and then up to gales by morning. The northern inner channels are already seeing sustained 15 to 25 kts, with Lynn Canal reaching closer to 30 to 35 kts by Monday afternoon. The strong southerly winds will spread through the rest of the central inner channels through Monday and into the southern inner channels by Tuesday morning. Anticipating periods of gale force winds to spread throughout the inner channels through Tuesday, bringing 6 to 8 ft wave heights through much of the panhandle. Winds in the southern and central panhandle should begin to decrease Tuesday night, while parts of the northern panhandle look to stay elevated through Wednesday.Will be able to fine the winds when they pick up. Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A strong gale force front towards the panhandle into Tuesday. With the initial system on Monday evening, southerly winds in the central gulf will increase to gale force with much of the coast seeing strong breezes to near gale force winds. A barrier jet also looks to form along the northern gulf coast from Kayak Island eastward to Icy Bay with this first system, bringing east to southeasterly strong gale force winds into Tuesday. Current thinking is sustained will be capped around 45 kts, but with localized gusts up to 60 kts. Another system looks to race up the western gulf coast overnight into Tuesday, strengthening the initial system and sending another strong front into the panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds across much of the western Gulf to sustained 45 kts gusts to 60 kts with higher confidence of a corridor of higher winds on the back side of the system. Widespread southerly 35 to 45 kt winds are expected to take over through the remainder of the gulf and along much of the coast Tuesday, which should steadily decrease through Wednesday. Strong southwesterly swell is also expected to increase, with the first system bringing 10 to 13 ft at a period of 10 to 12 seconds Monday and the second system quickly increasing to 20 to 25 ft at a period of 13 to 15 seconds. This will bring accentuated wave heights of 16 to 19 ft by Monday night and 25 to 30 ft through Tuesday. This will mainly be an issue for the northern and central parts of the gulf, with areas near Dixon Entrance staying closer to 12 to 18 ft at most. && .HYDROLOGY...A strong system is expected to move into the northern central gulf, reinforcing the existing low pressure system, and drawing a deeper fetch of moisture from northern Pacific. Currently on satellite, with PWs exceeding 200% of normal is streaming northward into Prince William Sound, and is expected to shift more eastward in the next few hours. This plume of moisture is expected to shift southerly, and is likely to exceed 600 kg/ms IVT for around a 12-18 hour period for any given location in the Icy Strait corridor and NE gulf coast. Expecting Yakutat to be the big winner in terms of rain amounts, with near perfect perpendicular flow, strong WAA in the low levels increasing lift potential, and decent divergence aloft. With this, yakutat could see upwards of 7 inches during a 36 hour period, which is a little higher than a 5 year ARI event. These higher ARIs look to extend down the coast and into the Glacier Bay area, with may areas along south facing slopes exceeding 5 year return intervals over a 24 hour period. Narrowed down area for potential landslides to the southern facing mountains slopes north of Elfin Cove. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ317. Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for AKZ317-320-322-325. Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ318-319. Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ320>322-325. Wind Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ323-324-327. Wind Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ328. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672. && $$ UPDATE...DS SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...BAS MARINE...Bezenek HYDROLOGY...NC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau