Huff Hills Snow Report

475 FXUS63 KBIS 240557 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. Expected hazards include hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds up to 70 mph, with a tornado or two possible. - Smoke from distant wildfires will make skies hazy and may reduce surface visibility on Friday. - Very hot conditions will return Friday through the weekend, with high temperatures and heat index values around 100 to 105 degrees. - The combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions will create near-critical fire weather conditions on Friday and Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Little updates needed at this time although there are some things worth monitoring. Low clouds could move into the southcentral and southeast tonight into Friday morning, and perhaps bring some patchy fog. Meanwhile some thunderstorms in southern Canada may clip northern portions later tonight into Friday morning. Overall the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 948 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 The forecast remains in good shape late this evening. A stray shower could clip the far southwest corner of the state over the next hour or two. Patchy to areas of smoke have been added to the forecast for Friday into Saturday, with the arrival of near-surface smoke anticipated with the cold frontal passage during the day Friday. The source region for the near-surface smoke is southern Alberta, where visibility is currently being reduced to around 2 to 5 miles. UPDATE Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Little to update early this evening. Satellite continues to show wildfire smoke across much of the state, and in southern Canada. This overall has limited our diurnal heating, keeping temperatures today under the forecast high. This trend could continue Friday and Saturday with a thicker layer of smoke forecast to move in. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 The primary forecast challenges over the next several days are potential severe weather, the return of very hot conditions, and near critical fire weather. West CONUS ridge will remain in place through Friday night before gradually sliding east over the weekend. Northwest flow aloft from the ridge will result in multiple shortwaves and WAA that could force occasional thunderstorm activity. An initial shortwave could produce a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in the northwest and far southwest. In addition, showers and thunderstorms could develop later tonight and Friday morning. With limited instability overall, any storms through the night tonight should remain sub-severe. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is then possible Friday afternoon into the evening. With much higher instability and around 40 to 50 kts of deep layer shear, a few of these storms could become severe. Will continue to message the potential for golf ball size hail and 70 mph winds. A tornado or two also remains possible, though is highly conditional on storm mode and whether or not storms can even become surface based to begin with. There remains some uncertainty in the severe threat overall. First, per the RAP, CIN never fully erodes. This may not completely inhibit convection. However, it could help result in storms being more elevated, which would inhibit the tornado threat for the forecast area as mentioned. CSU machine learning tends to back this scenario with no tornado outline. A second bit of uncertainty is smoke. While near surface smoke is more likely behind the surface front (more so a wind shift boundary), elevated smoke is likely to remain present across the entire forecast area Friday. If this helps limit high temperatures even a degree or two, it could be enough to inhibit more widespread thunderstorm development. Beyond the severe weather threat Friday, occasional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend and into the next workweek. However, severe weather probabilities are currently low and mainly for the eastern half of the state where higher dewpoints (leading to increased instability) are expected to persist. Currently, none of the forecast area is outlined by SPC Saturday or Sunday, although CSU maintains marginal equivalent risk probs in the eastern half of the state Sunday. Wouldn`t be surprised to see the eastern CWA clipped Sunday by SPC as well once it enters "Day 3" tonight. Otherwise, aforementioned ridge will lead to very hot temperatures with highs in the 100s Friday through this weekend for much of the CWA, while the hottest temperatures are expected on Saturday. That said, heat indices Friday are expected to remain below 100 degrees as much drier air will be in place compared to last week, especially over the hottest parts of the state (the southwest). Therefore, not issuing a Heat Advisory for Friday at this time. However, even hotter temperatures are expected on Saturday and Sunday, and will most likely lead to some form of Heat headline when all is said and done. One final note is that these hot conditions, combined with breezy winds Friday and Sunday, will lead to near critical fire weather conditions in parts of the southwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Some lower clouds and perhaps patchy fog may be found tonight into Friday morning across portions of south central and southeastern ND, with VFR conditions expected elsewhere. For now have kept these lower clouds out of the TAFs, although they could approach the KBIS and KJMS area. Generally VFR conditions are then expected for Friday. Wildfire smoke could bring FEW to SCT cloud appearance aloft, while reduced visibilities at the surface are also expected. Showers and thunderstorms may also return Friday through Friday evening. For now confidence was only high enough to include PROB30 groups at KBIS and KJMS. A breezy westerly wind is also expected for Friday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Anglin