Kincaid Park Cross Country Ski Trails snow report

853 FXAK68 PAFC 280001 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 401 PM AKDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday evening)... Increased cloud cover will help to limit convective activity today across the Susitna Valley. Pockets of sunshine in the Copper River Basin may allow for some isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon and Sunday afternoon, primarily northern Copper Basin along the Alaska Range. However, there may be a small chance (10%) of lightning strikes along portions of the Susitna Valley along the Western Alaska Range Monday afternoon as instability tries to build back in aloft ahead of an upper-level low across interior Southwest Alaska. Speaking of the of the upper-level low across Southwest, a trough associated with it will bring in cooler air to Southcentral, in the seasonably normal range, as it moves in from the Gulf of Alaska through Monday. Light showery conditions will spread across Southcentral with the trough on Monday and will persist into Tuesday as the trough moves to the eastern interior by late Tuesday into early Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)... Generally expect cloudier, cooler, and breezier conditions as lows dominate the upper level pattern. Southwest Alaska to see a break in thunderstorm potential through the remainder of the weekend, though much of the region will likely pick up some light rain as widespread rain showers move through. A weakening, vertically stacked, low pressure system in the Central Bering will continue to bring rain showers and fog to the Pribilofs before shifting eastward, moving over the mainland coastline by Sunday morning. Through Sunday the decaying surface low will continue rain showers across Southwest. By Monday, as the surface low breaks up, the upper-level trough moving over Southwest may create just enough elevated lift for isolated thunderstorms over the interior Kuskokwim Delta and Valley. These systems would likely be short-lived, coming to an end by Monday evening. For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, expect winds up to about 20-30 kt this evening around the weakening Bering Sea low, as mentioned previously this system will exit east through the weekend. By Sunday afternoon, a new strong Bering Sea low approaches the western Aleutians including Shemya, Amchitka, and Adak, bringing widespread rain and gales across the region. The leading front will move over Adak by Monday morning, and Unalaska and the Pribilofs by Monday evening. This system is expected to be active enough, and promote sufficient vertical mixing to bring at least a temporary end to the widespread areas of fog in the Bering after Sunday morning. -CL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)... An active pattern looks to continue for the long term forecast. Due to many smaller scale features moving in, there is some uncertainty exactly where they will track. Wednesday will start with shortwaves and fronts in the Bering causing elevated winds and rainfall for the Aleutians and the Southwest Mainland. Southcentral will see this troughing stretch into the Gulf of Alaska. This would allow for rainfall, but there is uncertainty on how quickly the troughing will move into the Gulf of Alaska. This means that rainfall in Southcentral could be delayed if the troughing moves in slower. Things become more uncertain Thursday through Saturday as more features move in. The current thinking is that a ridge will set up in the Bering by Friday, where it will remain through Saturday. Meanwhile, a larger low will move into the Gulf of Alaska, bringing rainfall to the Southwest and Southcentral Mainlands, including Kodiak Island. As for thunderstorms, it seems like convective potential will be low through next week, so storm potential is low for now. -JAR && .AVIATION... PANC...There is a chance (20 to 30 percent) for rain showers to drift over the terminal through this evening and again early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions with brief dips into MVFR conditions possible through tomorrow morning. Light winds expected with brief gusts up to 20 kts this evening into tomorrow morning. && $$