Kincaid Park Cross Country Ski Trails Snow Report

700 FXAK68 PAFC 180014 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 414 PM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Radar imagery this afternoon shows showers continuing to stream north across Prince William Sound and the Kenai Peninsula, with the heaviest band of showers tracking from Turnagain Arm into the Susitna Valley. Showers should continue to become more scattered through this evening as the trough axis lifts north, although lingering moisture and weak instability will promote rain chances to persist through much of Saturday ahead of the next system. Active weather continues through the weekend into next week as the pattern becomes more amplified Saturday. A strong upper level low slowly tracking east in the southeastern Bering coupled with a strengthening ridge across western Canada will help to direct an atmospheric river into the western half of Southcentral through the weekend. The heaviest precipitation is expected to begin by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening across Kodiak Island and the southern Kenai Peninsula before working its way north across the Kenai Peninsula, western Prince William Sound, and the Susitna Valley Saturday night. Heavy rain will persist for these areas through Sunday. Anchorage and the Mat Valley are likely to see another brief period of rain Saturday night along the leading edge of this storm before stronger cross- barrier flow develops leading to downsloping and relatively drier conditions. By Monday morning, the upper level trough extending into the Gulf becomes more negatively tilted as precipitation fills back in across Anchorage and the Mat Valley as flow aloft weakens. Generally expect rainfall to taper off from southwest to northeast through Monday as the axis of moisture finally begins to progress eastward. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday afternoon)... The forecast, albeit active, still looks to be on track. Radar returns this afternoon show rain trying to fill in from west to east across Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula, with more showery weather across the Southwest Interior. There have been more convective showers firing this afternoon across the central Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta where a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out this evening, though instability is quite limited. Once again, another cycle of relatively "warm" overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s is in store for Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula due to rainfall and cloud cover. The large, amplified upper level trough remains anchored over western Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea. At the surface, a gale force low is moving across the Pribilof Islands, while its front brings gales to the Pacific side of the Central and Eastern Aleutians. This low is near occlusion or is in the process of occluding as it becomes more vertically stacked, which will cause the cyclone to fill as it continues to move southeastward towards the Alaska Peninsula through tonight. As cold air continues to work in behind the system, a corridor of northerly to northwesterly high end small craft to gale force winds have developed to the west and southwest of the Pribilof Islands this afternoon, which are on track to last into Saturday. The Bering low, now in the southeast Bering by Saturday morning, slows its progression and remains in the southeast Bering through early Sunday morning before it lifts towards Kuskokwim Bay late Sunday morning. With little progression and numerous shortwaves rotating around the upper-level low portion of the system, most of Southwest continues to see rain through Saturday and Sunday. In addition to the rain across Southwest for Saturday, expect gusty easterly to southeasterly winds to pick up through Kamishak Gap and into Interior Bristol Bay and Iliamna as the pressure gradient tightens. The gustiest winds, around 35 to 40 mph will be felt across Iliamna Saturday evening with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph across Koliganek and New Stuyahok. These winds will slowly diminish through Sunday as the pressure gradient weakens. However, southeast winds out of Kamishak Gap will remain through Sunday with the low in Kuskokwim Bay. As the low moves towards Kuskokwim Bay Sunday, it will be in its weakening phase with small-craft southerly to southeasterlies left over across Bristol Bay. Rain continues into Monday as the main 500 mb trough remains draped across Southwest and shortwaves move across the area from the Bering and North Pacific. Aside from the rain that the Bering low`s front brings the Aleutian Chain today, Adak/Atka dry out for Saturday as a shortwave ridge builds in. Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan still contend with showers at times Saturday with northerly flow off of the Bering and shortwaves moving over the area from the north on the backside of the low. Meanwhile, showers across Shemya taper off this afternoon as the ridge builds in. Any break in rain will be short lived as a series of shortwaves move over the area from Kamchatka starting tonight through Sunday. Another shortwave ridge develops across the Western Aleutians for Monday. Stay tuned for forecast updates as the active pattern across the Bering, Aleutians, and Southwestern Mainland continues to unfold. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)... Forecast models continue to favor a longwave trough over the Bering, which keeps both Southwest Alaska and Southcentral Alaska within southwesterly flow for the foreseeable future. This will promote numerous opportunities for additional rainfall as each new low pressure system or trough lifts through the interior. As such, expect below normal temperatures to continue and above normal precipitation chances through the end of next week. -BL && .AVIATION... PANC...Widespread rain showers will continue to move across west Anchorage, including ANC, today in response to an upper-level trough lifting through the region. Some duration of break in precipitation is expected this evening/overnight before returning tomorrow morning with the next wave rotating northward. Winds will generally be on the light side, under 10 kts, through the first half of the period before gusty SE winds out of the Turnagain Arm pick up on Saturday afternoon. Flight CATs from CIGs and VIS likely to remain VFR though much of the period, but can`t rule out short periods of MVFR during bouts of heavier rain. -Brown && $$