Kincaid Park Cross Country Ski Trails snow report

408 FXAK68 PAFC 170032 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 432 PM AKDT Sat May 16 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday afternoon)... Wet and/or windy for much of Southcentral this weekend as an unseasonably strong storm system impacts the region. Wind Advisories are in effect for Anchorage and Lower Mat Valley, and Special Weather Statements are in effect across Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. The highest precipitation amounts will be in Kodiak Island and along the Gulf coast (including Prince William Sound), with only isolated showers expected for more interior locations through tomorrow morning. From the latter half of Sunday through much of Monday, expect rain showers with breezy afternoon winds. By late Monday, the next low brings widespread rain as it moves from the North Pacific into Southcentral. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... A now weakening low pressure system, with a center just southeast of the Pribilof Islands, continues to define the weather pattern across Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea. The low has pushed a front into the Southwestern Alaska coast, spreading gusty southeasterly winds and light-to-moderate rainfall rates across the region. Strongest winds and rainfall is along the mountainous Alaska Peninsula and Ahklun Mountains. Precipitation associated with the low pressure center is broad enough to include the Alaska Peninsula, the eastern Aleutians including Unalaska/Nikolski/Akutan, and the Pribilof Islands. The precipitation type across this system is predominantly rainfall, with only the Pribilof islands seeing snowfall, but no accumulations on the ground are expected. The Bering low remains stationary overnight into Sunday late morning allowing for continued rain showers and breezy conditions. Through Sunday afternoon and evening, the Bering low continues to broaden and weaken as it moves west of the Pribilof Islands. A North Pacific low moves toward the Alaska Peninsula bringing another round of rain and southerly winds to Southwest Alaska, portions of the Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula Monday. -CL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)... A broad upper-level trough over the Bering Sea extending into the Gulf looks to remain in place through at least early to mid next week. This will support continued unsettled conditions across much of southern Alaska. By midweek, focus shifts farther west as the active Bering Sea pattern continues. Another low is expected to move off Kamchatka, though model guidance remains split on its track. The European/Canadian models keep the low a bit farther north of the Aleutians, while the GFS favors the low just to the south of the Aleutian Chain. Regardless of the exact track, unsettled conditions are expected to persist across the Aleutian Chain as this system and its associated front progress eastward through Friday. LM && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF package. Strong southeasterly winds will continue through around midnight as a frontal system approaches. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 45 mph are likely. Winds are expected to quickly turn northerly and diminish as the southeasterly winds coming out of Turnagain Arm turn down Cook Inlet through Sunday. This expected wind shift will likely coincide with a period of continued gusty southeasterly winds aloft over the Chugach Mountains, resulting in the potential for LLWS from around midnight through Sunday morning. South-southeasterly winds are expected to redevelop by late Sunday morning with gusts of up to 35 mph possible through late Sunday evening. Chances for rain showers increase late Sunday. -TM && $$