Kincaid Park Cross Country Ski Trails Snow Report

435 FXAK68 PAFC 080028 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 428 PM AKDT Fri Aug 7 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Key Messages: - Flood Warning extended in time for the Yentna River including Lake Creek through 1PM tomorrow (Saturday). - Warmer and mostly dry for Southcentral through Monday. - Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers possible in the Talkeetna and Wrangell Mountains through Monday. A lightning strike or two is possible in the Wrangell Mountains this evening and tomorrow afternoon. Discussion: High pressure over the Gulf continues to build across southern Mainland as weakening low pressure over northern Alaska sends mostly benign, weak shortwaves moving west to east across Southcentral. While most of Southcentral is generally trending warmer and drier, isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers will linger near the Wrangell Mountains. The Wrangell Mountains could see a lightning strike or two through this evening. Afternoon showers are possible again tomorrow over the same area as a weak surface low looks to develop over the Copper River Basin. With a properly timed weak shortwave, a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be warm across the region into the workweek. The warmest will be the Copper River Basin, where high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s. Mat-Su, Anchorage, and the Kenai Peninsula will be in the upper 60s to low 70s into next week, with some mid 70s in the Susitna Valley. Coastal regions around the Gulf, southern Cook Inlet, and Prince William Sound as well as Kodiak Island warm to the mid to upper 60s through early next week. Overnight lows will cool to the upper 40s to low 50s. With high pressure overhead, some patchy overnight fog may develop in the southern Cook Inlet tomorrow night. The low over northern Alaska will continue to transit east in northern Yukon Territory. Though flow weakens further for Southcentral Sunday into Monday, additional shortwaves off that low could dip south into Copper River Basin. With orographic lift, afternoon showers may return Sunday and Monday along the Talkeetna and Wrangell mountains. PA/Rux && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday night)... Key Messages: * Areas of fog, dense at times, in and along the Bering Sea through at least Sunday morning. * Temperatures trend warmer across Southwest Alaska and peak early next week. Expect daytime highs in the 70s for all but the immediate coast, with highs approaching 80 degrees for parts of the Kuskokwim Valley. Discussion: The upper level pattern features lows in far eastern Russia, northern Alaska, and near Adak/Atka. Meanwhile, ridging extends across much of the Bering Sea and Southern Alaska. The primary weather concern for the Bering Sea will be fog and low stratus. While satellite shows patches of clearer sky in the Bering Sea, locations like Shemya, Saint Paul, and Saint George remain socked in, with visibilities primarily below 1 mile due to persistent fog. While there may be periods or pockets of clearing, expect fog to persist through at least tomorrow morning. From tomorrow through Monday night, the low in far eastern Russia will slowly sag southwards across the Bering Sea, bringing rain showers and areas of light to moderate rain. As the surface low will be relatively weak, winds will largely remain below 25-30 kt. It remains to be seen how this incoming feature will affect the fog forecast; current thinking is that fog will linger, but may become less dense as subsidence is reduced under lower pressure. Overall, fog remains the most challenging aspect of the forecast. For Southwest Alaska, expect a general warming trend as we head into early next week. Rain chances will be greatest tomorrow as the front of the far east Russian low grazes Kuskokwim Delta, though rain will be largely limited to Kuskokwim Delta coast. After the low retreats into the southern Bering Sunday evening, increasing high pressure will allow daytime highs on Monday to climb into the 70s for Kuskokwim Delta, into the mid 70s for Bristol Bay, and into the high 70s to perhaps even the low 80s for Kuskokwim Valley. These warm temperatures will likely continue into Tuesday. With warmer temperatures on the horizon, it may be a good idea to shift plans so that activities and people who may be more sensitive to warmer temperatures can be done over the weekend or later next week, when temperatures will be cooler. Note that this will be a longer stretch of warmer temperatures too, with temperatures unlikely to drop substantially until late in the workweek. The good news, however, is that low temperatures will dip into the high 40s to mid 50s, which will provide the opportunity for some overnight cooling. -KC && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)... As Tuesday begins, a weak area of high pressure over the southern central Bering will persist, with weak troughs flanking to the northwest over Kamchatka and to the south over the northern Pacific. This will likely promote a continued pattern of relatively stable conditions with widespread areas of low stratus and fog potentially. There is moderate confidence (40-50%) of the Kamchatka low pressure area dropping south over the western Bering, aligning the ridge axis over the Bering to be more north- south oriented. This would promote more unsettled conditions, gustier winds, rainier weather over the western Aleutians from Adak westward. By Thursday, model guidance spreads greatly, but the general theme is a shift away from higher pressure into a more unsettled pattern to most of the Aleutians through the end of the work week. Over the Southern Mainland of Alaska, weak areas of high and low pressure are expected to remain through early next week. The resulting weather will be diurnally- driven showers this weekend into next week. This pattern supports more of a scattered shower regime as opposed to widespread stratiform. The challenge will be to gauge instability each afternoon to determine whether or not lightning will be a threat with any robust showers that form. Right now, it looks like the Copper River Basin, along the Talkeetna Mountains, and along the Western Alaska Range feature the most instability through the long-term period. By Thursday and Friday, weak ridging over the Gulf of Alaska may make way for lower pressure systems to move in, allowing for a more showery and windier pattern over Southcentral. -CL && .AVIATION... PANC...Stratus has continued to break up this morning but due to the high pressure developing over the area, an MVFR cig may develop. Otherwise calm winds and VFR conditions are expected. && $$