Lutsen Mountains snow report

131 FXUS63 KDVN 090732 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 232 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a chance (20-40%) of scattered showers and isolated storms today and Friday. Heavy downpours and gusty winds up to 40 mph will be the primary hazards. - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions likely for much of next week, with increasing heat and humidity levels. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers and storms that brought gusty winds between 30-50 mph generally north and west of the I-380 corridor and heavy rain across Benton county last evening, has since dissipated to very light showers. Water vapor imagery shows subtle shortwaves aiding in additional showers developing over central IA and southwest WI at the moment. Finally, a strong LLJ is supporting a large area of storms just west of the KC metro over northeast KS this morning. A cooler and cloudier day is expected with scattered off-and-on showers this morning. In addition, residual outflow boundaries from last night`s convection and any breaks in the cloud cover will allow for more scattered storm potential this afternoon/early evening. Trying to pin down where and when these may occur is difficult in this pattern and given the wide array of model solutions decided to go with area- wide 20-40% PoPs. However, not all areas should expect rain today. Forecast soundings show a largely un-capped environment but a rather marginal CAPE/Shear overlap for severe potential locally. Thunder may also be hard to come by with weak mid-level lapse rates and the 00z REFS 1-hr thunder progs (40%) mostly confined to our southeast over central IL. Nonetheless, if a few storms do occur brief heavy downpours and gusty winds up to 40 mph would be possible in the strongest cells. Any activity to diminish quickly after sunset. Temperatures will also be a challenge today, with cloud breaks and precip duration possibly throwing a wrench in the forecast. Highs to top out in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows, to drop into the mid to upper 60s. Friday will see another shortwave move across the central Plains and bring more precipitation chances to the region. However, the timing, strength, and location of this wave is still quite uncertain. Some scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible but the severe weather risk appears minimal at this time. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 This Weekend...building heights aloft and high pressure overhead to bring largely dry and seasonable temperatures. Latest NBM loaded some lingering slight/chance PoPs across west central IL on Saturday that is likely a result of the 00z NAM outlier solution. I expect these to decrease further with future forecasts. Humidity levels should also be more tolerable with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Next Week...latest deterministic and ensemble solutions still continue to show a large anomalous upper ridge building into the central CONUS. The center of this high to be over the central Plains and if it gets to 599dam as suggested by the 00z GFS, it could become a top 10 sounding for 500mb heights at OAX or ABR! Locally, this will bring a high confidence forecast of dry conditions, above normal temperatures, and building heat. Factoring in the maturing crops, heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s appear very plausible for several days. More heat headlines may be needed for at least a portion of the area next week. Apparent T probabilities of 95 degrees or higher off the LREF (100 member ensemble of the GEFS/ENS/GEPS) are in the 40-60% range Tuesday-Thursday. Taking a look at the WPC experimental heat risk product, moderate impacts are possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week. This would include those who are the most sensitive to the heat. The latest CPC 8-14 day hazard outlook also maintains a Moderate (40-60%) risk of extreme heat for most of the CWA July 16th-18th. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Decaying showers and isolated thunderstorms to push east over eastern IA over the next 1-3 hrs. Added a TEMPO at MLI for -TSRA and gusty winds around 30kts. Outside of any shower/storm activity, VFR conditions are expected with light and variable wind. Showers and isolated thunder over central IA to slowly track east and may reach CID prior to sunrise. Added PROB30 mention for this possibility and will continue to monitor trends for any amendments. Behind this round, model soundings and layer RH progs show MVFR cigs at DBQ through early afternoon, with low VFR further south. Depending on amount of clouds, additional showers/storms are possible primarily east and southeast of the terminals. However, some widely scattered activity as suggested by hi-res models is not out of the question. Confidence is too low to include any mention at this time. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gross LONG TERM...Gross AVIATION...Gross