Mad River Mountain Snow Report

154 FXUS63 KDTX 100724 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 324 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much warmer today with temperatures in the upper 70s. - Next chance of rain arrives Sunday, focused over the southeasternmost areas, tied to the remnants of Isaias. - Very mild, dry again Monday with highs in the upper 70s to 80. - Scattered shower chances Monday night-Tuesday tied to a passing cold front. This front brings a return to a more typical fall pattern for the mid to late week period. && .DISCUSSION... Surface warm front still in the process of lifting across the central portions of lower MI eventually clears to the north by late morning ushering in respectable southerly warm advection. 850mb temps quickly rise into the mid teens C supporting high temps in the mid to upper 70s. Remnants of Isaias are expected to track along the western spine of the southern Appalachians tonight into Sunday before deflecting into the mid-Atlantic by Sunday night. Locally, the consequence of this more southerly track is the bulk of the northern rain shield holds to our south and east over Ohio/Lake Erie. As such, there has been a notable downward trend in most model QPF towards a more 0.1-0.25" range along the St. Clair-Erie corridor and Ohio border areas- where highest confidence in showers exist. Shower coverage, duration, and QPF decreases further north and west you go outside of Metro Detroit as building western Great Lakes mid-level ridging noses in towards the Saginaw Bay Sunday. Rain chances come to an end by Sunday evening as the system shifts east of the Appalachians. Dry, very mild conditions remain in place for Monday as mid-level ridging flattens overtop of lower MI. This collapsing ridge allows the core of the upper Midwest airmass to fold into the area bringing 850mb temps towards the upper teens C leading to widespread 70s with a shot at some seeing 80. A shift back to a more typical fall pattern arrives by Monday night-Tuesday as a cold front sagging out of northern Ontario finally reaches/crosses the central Great Lakes. Upper Plains mid-level shortwave rides along this frontal boundary as it crosses supporting the region`s next chances for scattered showers. Post-frontal airmass marks the return of average temperatures with mid/late week highs in the lower 60s and overnight lows in the lower 40s. && .MARINE... The combination of high pressure over New England and the approaching remnants from Hurricane Isaias will work to strengthening the pressure gradient across the Great Lakes today. This will bring breezy southeast flow with gusts ranging between 20 to 25 knots through south and central Lake Huron, sporadically peaking around 30 knots over north-central Lake Huron where the fetch is more favorable. Small Craft Advisories are now in place from Port Austin to Port Sanilac given increasing wave heights building in by the late morning hours. Sporadic gust to gales will be possible across north-central Lake Huron, however, confidence in achieving gales will be very low noting high stability over the lakes which will greatly hamper or nullify any mixing of stronger winds aloft. Breezy conditions will subside through tomorrow as a ridge of high pressure briefly fills in. Remnant moisture from the tropical system will also bring the chance for rain showers. Otherwise, on and off rain showers and some low-end storm chances will be possible through next week as a couple of systems moves through. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 AVIATION... A weakening elevated warm front will sustain areas of mid level clouds (above 6k feet overnight). The 00Z DTX sounding indicated ample low level dry air. This will keep the clouds high based. Large scale subsidence will dominate Se Mi through Saturday afternoon, maintaining clear skies other than high based clouds. There will be a slight uptick in the southeast winds with strong high pressure centered over the northeastern US. D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms forecast during the period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * None && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ441-442. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KDK MARINE.......AM AVIATION.....SC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.