Spicy Run Mountain Snow Report

099 FXUS63 KDTX 090645 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 245 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonable conditions today. - Chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Isolated storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. In addition, heavy rainfall will be possible. - Seasonable temperatures with periodic chances for thunderstorms throughout the early week period && .DISCUSSION... Ridge of high pressure anchored over the region early this morning will maintain influence heading into Sunday as it slowly vacates to the east. This provides a brief window for deeper layer stability to exist within the background of prevailing lower amplitude mid level west-northwest flow. This will support dry conditions with a high degree of insolation potential through the afternoon hours. Emerging low level southerly flow will initiate a modest period of warm air advection through the daylight period. This will bring highs into the middle and upper 80s, but with a more manageable humidity level noted with a dewpoint generally hovering near 60 degrees. Attention for the evening period turns to behavior of convective activity now organizing over the upper Miss valley within a zone of deeper moist/warm air advection and along one of several mid level impulses embedded within the mean flow. Model guidance offers a general consensus for this activity to maintain some form of integrity as translates downstream today, reaching the local area during the evening hours. Higher likelihood for this activity to arrive in a weakening state as instability really diminishes with eastward extent, perhaps even falling apart or becoming focused over a smaller footprint. Forecast will scale precipitation chances down into the chance to lower likely category for the 22z-04z window and allow near term trends to dictate further revision. Greater moisture advection occurs within the wake of this wave overnight, initiating a secondary opportunity for convective expansion along the existing frontal boundary/outflow extending across southern lower MI. While there may be a tendency for greater expansion to build southward into the deeper instability residing south of the state line, the potential certainly exists for some clusters of marginally surface based cells to work eastward into mainly areas south of I-96 during the overnight hours. SPC continues to highlight this corridor for an isolated risk of damaging winds and hail. In addition, potential for some training of cells along the boundary will offer the possibility for areas of heavier rainfall and a localized flash flooding threat. Forecast for Monday carries strong dependence on behavior of the overnight activity both locally and upstream. There is currently strong evidence across the model spectrum that the more meaningful forced ascent and deeper instability will generally remain to the south and west during the day. There remains at least a lower probability for mainly southern sections to be vulnerable for renewed diurnal development should more tangible forced ascent materialize. Latest NBM corroborates this noted trend with a sizable downward revision in forecast precip chances for the Monday period. This casts considerable doubt on prospective severe convective chances. There perhaps is greater potential for another round of convective expansion Monday night into Tuesday over the northern Ohio valley, which could spill into southern lower Mi as bouts of greater moist/warm air advection occur along the oscillating boundary and within any passing shortwave. In a nutshell, the early week precip forecast carries very low predictability and likely will require additional revision. Temperatures during this period will remain seasonable for mid August. && .MARINE... High pressure slides east across the region tonight into Sunday, with west-northwest winds becoming south and southwest by Sunday morning. South winds increase Sunday across northern Lake Huron, to around 20-25 knots. The uptick in winds on Sunday over the Saginaw Bay will bring 2-3 feet waves, but conditions look to fall just short of small craft advisory criteria at this time. Much of Sunday remains dry, but Sunday evening through early next week an active pattern will bring back chances for organized thunderstorms as a slow moving frontal boundary sets up across the southern Great Lakes region and lingers through mid week. By the end of the week, high pressure builds south from central Canada. && .HYDROLOGY... One or more rounds of thunderstorms will track toward the region this evening and overnight. Low confidence exists on possible trajectory, duration and coverage of any activity, with greater overall potential perhaps developing mainly south and west of the area. If thunderstorms do impact SE Michigan, there will be potential for training thunderstorms capable of rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour. Localized flash flooding will be possible, especially if heavy rainfall impacts urban areas. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1140 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 AVIATION... High pressure promotes clearing skies and weakening winds through tonight. Influence of said high lingers through Sunday morning before upstream convection over the western Great Lakes approaches the area in the evening. Exactly how well this complex survives into SE MI, or the degree of redevelopment overnight behind it, carries a good amount of uncertainty at this stage so continue to hold Prob30 mentions. D21/DTW Convection... No convection forecast through Sunday afternoon. Upstream storms over the western Great Lakes are expected to track near/over SE MI Sunday evening/night though this carries a high amount of uncertainty this far out. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceiling aob 5000 ft through Sunday afternoon. * Low for thunderstorms Sunday evening. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......JA HYDROLOGY....MR AVIATION.....KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.