Mont Bleau snow report

520 FXUS63 KICT 180554 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1254 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening, primarily along and west of the Kansas Turnpike. - Severe weather potential continues for Monday afternoon and evening across the area with all hazards possible, though uncertainty in storm evolution persists. - Warm and windy on Monday, with a cooldown arriving Tuesday. - Shower and storm chances return Wednesday evening and last through the end of the week. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon highlight an amplifying mid/upper wave traversing the Central Intermountain. At the surface, low pressure resides in north central Kansas with the associated dryline spanning through southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle and beyond. Large-scale forcing from the approaching wave is expected to promote the development of showers and storms later this afternoon into the evening hours. Increasing sfc/BL convergence along the dryline is expected to provide the main focus for storm chances across the forecast area, especially across central Kansas where the boundary intersects a slow-moving cold front. Per this morning`s discussion, strong instability combined with 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear will support the potential for supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. We continue to see the potential for landspout tornadoes as well due to the nearly-stationary cold front and modest 3CAPE values, though the overall tornado threat appears somewhat lower owing to relatively high cloud bases. The tornado chance may increase following the strengthening of the LLJ and subsequent low- level shear after 7 PM, with the greatest potential residing once again in central Kansas. The potent shortwave is progged to translate eastward through the Rockies and eject into the High/Central Plains on Monday. Short- range models (NAM/RAP) continue to place the dryline across southwest Kansas by afternoon. Deep-layer shear in the 30-40 kt range oriented orthogonal to the boundary alongside warm-sector buoyancy in excess of 3000 J/kg all support the potential for discrete supercells capable of all hazards, including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution and timing of this scenario. The higher confidence resides with the latest short-term models suggesting storms initiating along the slow-moving cold front draped over central Kansas in the afternoon. This front will crash to the southeast by late afternoon/early evening, which would likely preclude the potential for discrete storms to fire off the dryline and into portions of the forecast area (namely, areas west of the Flint Hills). This solution would support a messier, linear storm mode owing to the negatively-tilted trough promoting boundary- parallel deep-layer shear. However, should slower solutions verify and this southward crash occur later in the period, the window for severe to significant severe weather would increase, particularly as low-level shear increases with the arrival of the LLJ in the evening. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the details of this upcoming severe event. In addition to this severe weather threat, a deepening surface low alongside deep mixing will result in another day of strong south winds on Monday. Sustained winds in the 25-35 mph range alongside gusts to 45 mph are possible in south central KS and adjacent counties, where a Wind Advisory was issued with this forecast cycle. For now, the period of strongest winds appears to be mid-morning through early evening prior to the arrival of the aforementioned cold front. Cooler temperatures in the 60s and low 70s are expected to persist through Thursday in the wake of Monday evening`s cold front. We could see residual rain chances across far southeast Kansas through Tuesday within the post-frontal airmass. Otherwise, chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening through the end of the week as a handful of low-amplitude waves traverse the central CONUS. Severe weather associated with these features appears unlikely at this time. Additionally, increasing thicknesses and the return of southerly winds are forecast to promote the return of high temperatures in the 80s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to fester over central Kansas while propagating east and slowly diminishing. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to develop across much of the area with some pockets of IFR possible north of the stationary front/outflow boundary in central Kansas as we move into the predawn hours as we remain in a very moist airmass. Strong and gusty southerly winds will return to much of the area on Monday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop on Monday afternoon along a sagging cold front with other storms possible along a dryline which is expected to be just west of the area. This activity is expected to develop into a line as we move into the evening hours while moving east of the area shortly after midnight. Some low clouds may redevelop in the wake of the front with breezy northwest winds also anticipated. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Strong south winds sustained around 25-35 mph and gusting to 45 mph will continue through the afternoon hours today. Combined with above normal temperatures and very low RH values, these factors will result in very high grassland fire danger in areas primarily west of Interstate 135. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ051>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...MWM FIRE WEATHER...