Mont Bleau Snow Report

875 FXUS63 KICT 150740 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 240 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme heat lingering for southern and eastern KS today. - Scattered showers and storms are possible again this evening, with additional chances on Sunday into early Monday. - More seasonable temperatures expected for Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Currently, the ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern with the ridge axis just off to our east. A broad, weak trough is digging into the western US. At the surface, a weak boundary continues to bisect the state which has been the focus of storm development once again. Severe activity has diminished early this morning, but the LLJ continues to interact with this boundary leading to scattered showers and storms across western and northern Kansas. This activity will persist through daybreak before diminishing. For the rest of today, temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 90s across central Kansas where the boundary is draped with lower 100s expected across the southern tier of the forecast area. Then, another round of storms is expected to develop later this afternoon/early evening along the stationary boundary. Moderate instability along with low/mid level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km will support a few severe storms with strong wind gusts remaining the main threat into the early overnight period. Sub-severe rain and storms are expected to persist into the overnight hours once again with the development of the LLJ. As an upper level trough traverses the Canadian Prairies and the northern tier of the US, the ridge will be squashed further south. The stationary boundary that has been draped across the state will finally push south as a cold front on Sunday. Winds will turn northerly areawide on Sunday morning, but the widespread "cooler" temperatures will lag behind the boundary slightly. Central and portions of south-central Kansas can expect more seasonable temperatures (upper 80s, lower 90s) on Sunday, but temperatures around 100 will linger for southeastern Kansas. Widespread upper 80s and 90s are forecast for Monday. Behind the front on Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, moisture will linger allowing for a few isolated showers and sub-severe storms to develop near the frontal boundary across southern Kansas. Drier air will begin to filter into the region later on Monday. Then by Tuesday, the trough will dig into the Great Lakes region and the northeastern tier of the US and ridging will begin to build back in over the Plains from the west. We will see temperatures respond accordingly with upper 90s and lower 100s expected areawide on Tuesday. A shortwave will sweep across the Plains on Wednesday. The placement of the corresponding surface boundary could lead to cooler temperatures Wednesday afternoon across central Kansas, with 100s across southern portions of the state. If the boundary fails to make it that far south, another day of widespread upper 90s/lower 100s could be on tap for the forecast area. POPs increase for the region on Wednesday night with the approach/passage of the front. Seasonably mild temperatures behind the front, along with a drier air mass, are then expected for the end of the forecast period on Thu/Fri. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 A smattering of non-severe showers/thunderstorms will remain possible through the night, mainly for GBD, SLN, and RSL, although cannot rule out a stray shower/storm for ICT and HUT as well. The culprits will be a convectively-induced mid-level disturbance approaching from the west amidst seasonably rich precipitable waters. Thinking this threat could linger past sunrise. For late Saturday afternoon and evening, another round of hit-or-miss thunderstorms is expected. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ048>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMD AVIATION...ADK