Mont Bleau Snow Report

617 FXUS63 KICT 250823 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 323 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot conditions expected through Tuesday. Heat indices between 105 and 113 possible each afternoon and early evening. - Periodic low storm chances return Tuesday afternoon and continue through the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 ...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis clearly show a large and strong mid/upper ridge across the southern/central Rockies and into the southern/central plains. 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam is one of a number of factors showing how supportive this current pattern is for hot conditions across the forecast area. As a result of recent rainfall, ample evapotranspiration will keep dewpoints well into the 70s across a large portion of the area while afternoon temperatures easily rise into the upper 90s to low 100s. As a result of this dewpoint and air temperature combo, heat indices this afternoon will likely be over 105 across the entire forecast area. Across southern and southeast Kansas where higher dewpoints are expected, heat indices this afternoon should rise to at least 110. Despite widespread subsidence underneath the aforementioned ridge, the environment this afternoon will be uncapped with surface temps nearing convective temps, primarily across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. As a result, PoPs will be around 10% for the potential of a brief, isolated shower or storm during peak diurnal heating this afternoon and early evening mainly along and south of US-54. The pattern is not expected to change much Sunday through Tuesday with a strong upper anti-cyclone and very warm mid-level temperatures supporting hot surface air temperatures each afternoon and early evening. With slightly less moisture Sunday through Tuesday, heat indices will likely remain below 110 despite highs each afternoon rising above 100 degrees across the majority of the forecast area. The hottest day appears to be Monday as guidance suggests the mid/upper ridge will be centered over Kansas and Oklahoma. Record highs on Monday are unlikely to be broken, but it`s possible few locations could see their first temperatures above 105 since August of 2023. In addition to hot daytime temperatures, nighttime temperatures are anticipated to be near record highs with many locations each night only dropping into the upper 70s to low 80s. ...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.. The strong mid/upper ridge will begin to break down on Tuesday limiting the hottest conditions to southern Kansas for Tuesday afternoon. Additionally, the breakdown of this ridge will open the door for low storm chances to return as soon as Tuesday evening/night. The primary ridge axis will continue to retrograde towards the Four Corners region during the latter half of next week allowing for a continuation of periodic low storm chances each evening and night Wednesday through the weekend. Despite the ridge shifting westward, temperatures will generally remain just a tad above average with afternoon highs in the upper 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. It`s too early to determine the coverage and intensity of these potential storms as that will likely be determined by mesoscale features that will more apparent as we approach this time frame, so stay tuned for updates to the forecast over the coming days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1046 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light southerly winds will turn southwesterly briefly after 12Z. Then, a weak boundary will sweep across the state during the afternoon that will turn winds out of the southeast through the end of the period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068. Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ069>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ069>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...AMD