Mont Bleau Snow Report

827 FXUS63 KICT 250718 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 218 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and storm chances will remain for today through Saturday night. They will then return for the Mon night through Wednesday time frame. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Currently have upper ridging centered over the TX Gulf Coast with water vapor imagery showing an upper impulse along the AZ/NM border. Not much at the surface to focus on with a broad area of moist east/southeast flow across the Southern Plains. Mid level impulse over the Desert Southwest will start to lift northeast today and by later this afternoon will be moving into the Central Rockies with much of the upper energy moving out across western KS. Ahead of this wave, most of the area will remain in very moist 850-700mb flow with PW values around 175% of normal. This will lead to continued scattered showers and isolated storms through much of the day, especially for locations along and west of I-135. We should see an uptick in convection around 00z as upper jet max starts to move into western portions of the forecast area. The more widespread convection will lift northeast with the upper impulse as Sat morning approaches. For Sat, mid/upper energy will be lifting into the Upper Mississippi Valley with a broad area of upper ridging across southern TX into the Gulf. While widespread rainfall is not expected on Sat, we will remain in moist 850-700mb flow with an unseasonably high PW airmass in place. This could result in some sct-iso showers and storms throughout the day, especially across the Flint Hills into eastern KS. Rain chances will continue to push east Sat night and by early Sun morning, only far southeast KS should still have precip chances. This will leave dry conditions in place for most of Sun through Monday. By 00z Tue, there is good model agreement in a robust upper low digging across Southern CA into the Desert Southwest. As the low slides east Mon night, low level jet and associated moisture transport will ramp-up, increasing shower and storm chances across the area. High precip chances will remain through Tue as strong 850- 700mb moisture transport remains across the Plains with the upper low lagging back over NM. Upper low then looks to move out across the Southern Plains for Wed through Thu. Models have not been very consistent with the timing of the low so confidence beyond Tue is low at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Off-and-on spotty showers and storms are likely throughout much of the TAF period, especially along and west of the Flint Hills. Showers and storms earlier tonight have exited the area, but new development is occurring across portions of northwest Oklahoma as of 4Z, and this activity will lift northward into Kansas. After the overnight period, additional showers and storms are expected to develop and spread northeastward impacting much of Kansas throughout the day on Friday. Sites impacted by any shower or storm could experience occasional lightning strikes and brief periods of reduced visibility. Additionally, some MVFR to IFR ceilings will try to sneak into portions of central Kansas between 12-18Z Friday morning. Surface winds are forecast to remain out of the east and southeast throughout the TAF period with wind speeds around 5 to 15 knots. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...JC