Mont Bleau snow report

950 FXUS63 KICT 100546 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1246 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will support heat indices around 105 across much of south central and perhaps southeast KS again on Wed. - Low chance of severe storms across central Kansas with damaging winds around 60-70 mph possible. - An active pattern continues Wednesday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 Southwest mid/upper flow prevails over the central CONUS with a mid/upper trough situated over the Northern Intermountain/Northern Rockies. This trough is progged to propagate eastward emerging over the Northern Plains late tonight while forcing the mid/upper ridge south and east. A deeply mix pbl is progged across the High Plains as the low level flow veers through the day. We may still see some high-based convection develop across the High Plains along a diffuse dryline this afternoon. This activity will race east/northeast this evening. Inverted-v profiles/steep mid-lvl lapse rates will support damaging winds with any storms that manage to develop through the early evening hours, but better chances for hail may remain west of the area. Our central Kansas counties could be impacted in the 00- 03Z timeframe as a more subtle pv anomaly rotates out of the Southern High Plains late this afternoon before we see a more rapid demise compared to yesterday. We are expecting a relatively brief window as the pbl is progged to decouple rather quickly with loss of daytime heating. As we move into Wed, the mid/upper trough over the Northern Plains will continue to move along the Canadian border while a trailing cold front bisects Kansas during the afternoon hours. This front will become a focus for deep moist convection in the 21-22Z timeframe when the cap weakens. We continue to see steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably strong deep layer shear around 30-40 knots supporting more organized convection with large hail and damaging winds. Isolated or widely scattered storms may develop along the stalled frontal boundary or perhaps along the dryline to our west. Some of this activity may linger into the evening hours. The nocturnal LLJ nosing into parts of southwest/south central KS during the early evening hours may allow for some of the activity to linger or fester through the evening/overnight hours. Thursday...The cold front is progged to move slowly south and east bisecting southeast Kansas on Thursday afternoon. We continue to see strong H5 flow on the south side of the Northern Plains trough with relatively steep mid-lvl lapse rates and deep layer shear of 30-40+ knots supporting some storm organization once again. Areas mainly southeast of the Kansas Turnpike will be the area of concern for a few strong/severe storms on Thursday afternoon while a more stable post-frontal regime builds over the remainder of the area. Storms should race south and east away from the area during the evening hours with a stable post-fronal regime building across the area Thursday night. Low level moisture may begin to return to the area on Friday as sfc high pressure moves into the Middle Mississippi Valley area allowing southerly flow to return to the Central Plains. A progressive zonal flow is anticipated as we remain on the southern periphery of the stronger belt of H5 flow. A developing warm frontal segment could result in some shower/storm activity but confidence remains low. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated with highs in the mid/upper 80s. Sat-Tue...Another frontal boundary will sag southward over the area this weekend bringing additional chances for showers and storms late Sat into early Sun. Unsettled weather conditions may linger into early next week as another shortwave trough rotates over the Northern Plains. The warmest day is expected to be Sat, with below average temperatures prevailing Sun-Tue. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF period. Low-level wind shear will impact central and southeast terminal sites through 13z. Southerly winds will pick up late this morning with gusts up to 30 kts and diminish in the late afternoon. A cold front will push into central KS this afternoon, shifting winds to northerly at GBD and RSL. Showers and storms are likely to develop along this front in the late afternoon into the evening, though there is uncertainty on storms impacting terminal sites, so decided to leave out mention in this issuance. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067-068-082-083-091-092. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...GC