Moose Mountain snow report

832 FXAK69 PAFG 282329 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 329 PM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Northern Alaska will be warming to well above normal through mid-week with winds increasing in most areas. Conditions will then remain well above normal and windy into the weekend. A weather front now over the SE Interior will bring a chance of light rain to the SE Interior tonight and Tue AM before dissipating Tue PM. A second and stronger weather front will move north over the Southern Interior Wed, and over the North Slope on Thu. This will bring moderate east to northeast winds to the West Coast and channeled areas of the Interior Tue night through Wed night, and to the North Slope Wed into Thu. This will also bring moderate chinook winds to the Alaska Range Wed into Thu. Expect a chance of rain to accompany the front over the Southern Interior Wed into Thu, with rain likely and a chance of snow over the West Coast and Northern Interior and North Slope Wed night and Thu. Aloft... The long wave pattern consists of a high amplitude trough that extends from the Pole south over Alaska into the Central North Pacific with a ridge over the Wrn CONUS and Wrn Canada. This pattern will retrograde through mid-week as the ridge builds over the northeast half of Alaska. This sets up a south to southeast flow pattern over Northern Alaska that will bring warm temperatures by mid-week that will continue through the weekend. Surface... High pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will build through Wed, then retreat north on Thu. This is causing light east winds along with stratus, fog, and isolated light snow showers over the North Slope. There will be areas of dense fog tonight east of Point Barrow. The fog will thin Wed and Wed night as the east winds increase in advance of an incoming frontal system. A 1004 mb low over Kotzebue Sound will weaken to 1012 mb by 4pm Tue, then dissipate. An Arctic front that extends east from this low to Circle will remain stationary through 4pm Tue, then retreat north of the Brooks Range on Wed. Most precip north of this front will fall as snow, with mixed rain and snow along the front, and precip mostly rain south of the front. A trailing Arctic cold front from this low to the YK Delta will persist through Tue, then move to Point Hope to St Matthew Island on Wed. There are isolated rain and snow showers along and west of this front due to the cold air over the warm water. North winds 10-20 kt along and west of this front will increase to 20 to 30 kt on Wed, and persist into Thu. A 1000 mb low in Bristol Bay will dissipate Tue. An occluded front stretching from this low to Delta Junction to Eagle will move to McGrath to Fairbanks to Eagle by 4am Tue and then dissipate Tue. There are isolated to scattered rain showers along this front that will taper off Tue PM. A strong low will move north into Bristol Bay Wed, and to Nunivak Island as a 985 mb low by 4pm Thu. A weather front with this system will move to along the Alaska Range Wed AM, to anvik to Tanana to Eagle by 4pm Wed, and to the Bering Strait to Umiat to Inuvik by 4pm Thu. This will bring east to northeast winds 15-30kt over the West Coast and channeled areas of the Interior Tue night and Wed, and east winds 20-30 kt to the North Slope Wed into Thu. This will also bring moderate chinook winds to the Alaska Range Wed into Thu. Expect a chance of rain to accompany the front over the Southern Interior Wed into Thu, with rain likely and a chance of snow over the West Coast and Northern Interior and North Slope Wed night and Thu. Conditions will dry and warm behind the front, and remain warm into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Models appear to initialize aloft at 12Z. Models appear to have similar solutions through 4pm Wed, then see slight differences in the strength of short waves moving north, with the GFS having a weaker short wave moving north over SW Alaska compared to the ECMF/NAM and Canadian models. At this time, favor a blend of models of aloft through 4pm Wed, then a blend of the ECMF/NAM and Canadian models for Wed night and Thu. With precip, models show same general pattern through 4pm Wed, then the ECMF and NAM move precip north faster than the GFS. Will use a blend of models through 4pm Wed, then a blend of the NAM and ECMF for Wed night and Thu. At the surface at 15Z, all models verify 3-4 mb too weak with the lows over Bristol Bay and the Kenai Peninsula and 2-3 mb too weak with the high north of the Arctic Coast. By 18Z as the lows were moving inland, models look to be within 1-2 MB of the surface lows and 2-3 mb of the high north of the Arctic Coast. What this means is that winds will be a few kt higher than models indicate across Northern Alaska today into this evening. Models show similar solutions through 4pm Wed, with the ECMF bringing a strong low north over SW Alaska more quickly than the GFS and NAM. At this time favor the faster ECMF solution, which will bring increasing winds over Northern AK more quickly than the NAM and GFS. Bottom line for models is that we will use a blend the NAM/GFS and ECMF for winds, precip, and temps through 4pm Wed, then use blend of the NAM and ECMF for Wed night and Thu for the winds, temps and precip. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... Water levels along the West Coast will be lower than normal Thu and Fri with offshore winds. Could see rises south of the Bering Strait on the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Rivers will continue to fall slowly. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225. && $$ JB SEP 20