Mt. Crescent Ski Area Snow Report

381 FXUS63 KOAX 170509 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1209 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog is possible overnight, followed by highs in the 90s to near 100 Friday. Isolated showers are possible Friday afternoon. - Heat builds this weekend, with heat index values reaching 100 to 108 degrees Sunday and Monday. - Cooler weather returns by midweek, along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Tonight and Friday... Mid- to upper-level ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, supporting continued warm and generally quiet conditions. A few isolated, diurnally driven showers developed this afternoon. Fog development is expected again overnight into Friday morning. Forecast soundings depict a shallow saturated layer near the surface with gusty winds above it. As a result, fog should remain patchy and largely confined to low-lying and wind protected area, along with scattered areas that received healthy rain showers this afternoon. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer Friday, with highs ranging from the lower 90s to near 100 degrees along the Nebraska-South Dakota border. Continued low-level theta-e advection and evapotranspiration will maintain muggy dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, resulting in peak heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Can`t rule out a few additional widely scattered diurnally driven showers during the afternoon (20% chance), generally along and south of I-80 where the better instability resides. While instability is plentiful, shear will remain very weak, limiting any severe weather potential and likely keep showers relatively stationary. A localized downpour and rumble of thunder remain the primary hazard. Saturday through Monday... Temperatures will continue to climb through the period as the mid- level ridge axis shifts toward the western High Plains and warmer 850 mb temperatures spread into the region. Highs Saturday will reach the mid to upper 90s, with heat index values generally in the upper 90s to low 100s. Temperatures will increase further Sunday, with highs ranging from the mid 90s to around 105 degrees. The warmest readings are expected across northeast Nebraska, while heat index values range from the upper 90s to around 106 degrees. Sunday, a shortwave trough pushing into the northern Plains is expected to initiate overnight convection, potentially organizing into an MCS. Ensemble guidance has consistently kept the strongest signal north of the forecast area, primarily across South Dakota. However, some of this activity could graze northeast Nebraska, where PoPs of 15% remain in place Sunday night. The disturbance will also help push a cold front into the area Sunday. Despite the name, the front is not expected to provide much relief, though it may lower dewpoints by a degree or two across northeast Nebraska. Monday continues to have the warmest temperatures in the forecast, with widespread highs from 99 to 105 degrees and peak heat index values from 100 to around 108 degrees. The highest heat index values are expected across southwest Iowa, where dewpoints will be the highest. Confidence in Monday`s temperatures is slightly lower due to the potential for overnight convection to the north. A southward shift in convection or lingering cloud cover could limit daytime heating. Heat headlines will likely be needed for portion of the period. Heat index values are generally near Heat Advisory criteria, with overnight lows remaining in the low to mid 70s, providing little relief. The duration of the heat and warm overnight temperatures will support widespread High HeatRisk, particularly Sunday and Monday. Tuesday and Beyond... Cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances are expected during the period as a shortwave trough pushing into the northern Plains dampens the ridge and pushes another cold front through the area Monday night. Highs Tuesday are still expected to reach the low to mid 90s, with high temperatures falling into the 80s Wednesday and Thursday as cooler air and cloud cover returns to the region. The best precipitation chances currently appear to be Wednesday night into Thursday, when another shortwave passage supports PoPs of 30-50%. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 VFR conditions a currently in place this evening with only a few clouds near KOMA interrupting the night sky at FL100, with the main concern being the possibility of patchy fog after 09z. Confidence in its formation is a bit lower than it has been over the past few days, owing to a bit of wind at FL020 that could keep the surface stirred up just enough to prevent its formation. Otherwise, winds will stay out of the southeast, picking up late tomorrow morning to near 10 kts while the afternoon tries to see a few pop-up showers and storms. As of now, the chances for any TAF location to be affected by one is about 20%, and will be kept out of the TAF for now. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Petersen