Mt. Crescent Ski Area snow report

185 FXUS63 KOAX 070519 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1219 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sunday won`t be as warm as Saturday and may bring the development of some non-supercell funnel clouds. - Warmer weather builds in Monday lasting through much of the week. Highs trend upwards with continued rain chances that could thwart extreme heat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 "Cut-off low, weatherman`s woe." CONUS water vapor imagery makes it easy to spot the cut-off low spinning over Texas`s panhandle with it`s eastern half drawing moisture through eastern Oklahoma, Kansas, and up into Nebraska. The mid- latitude jet arcs north, ridging well into Canada and bringing unseasonable heat to much of the Central Plains. Much of the Dakotas were running 10-15 degrees warmer than normal today. This CWA`s highs were generally 5-10 degrees warmer than early June norms. We had one funnel report from a cell near Villisca, IA this evening. Low level lapse rates and some surface instability unencumbered by deep shear left storms capable of stretching any vertical low-level vortices. A similar environment may develop on Monday. Any funnels that do develop on Monday should be weak and short-lived like today`s was. After a short break in the action, chances of rain begin to climb again after midnight as the cut-off low approaches from the southwest, caught up in the southwesterly mean flow. PoPs climb until peaking in the afternoon with numbers ranging from about 80% in western Iowa to 10% at Niobrara, NE. Flooding concerns are mostly limited to far southeast Nebraska and western Iowa where PWAT values approach 2" and QPF is over 0.4". Showers, however, should be scattered and transient, meaning they won`t be spending too much time in one location. This will limit the flood threat. If a shower interrupts your outdoor plans, waiting 30 mins might solve your dilemma. Most of the day will be spent under the cloud cover before clearing west to east in the evening. This will leave highs close to seasonal norms (82F) or perhaps a couple of degrees cooler. .MONDAY, TUESDAY, and WEDNESDAY... With global deterministic guidance bringing a West Coast trof into the central CONUS a bit faster than the past few runs, we have pushed temps a bit higher for the beginning of the week. Temps rebound on Monday ahead of a weak boundary sinking south across the Dakotas. Highs should get close to 90F as the front approaches but stalls and kind of washes out across central Nebraska. Tuesday may be the warmest day of the year so far with widespread 90s forecast and near 100 expected along the SD state line. Being early in the season generally makes heat impacts a little worse and with dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices will be peaking over 100 on Tuesday afternoon at all locations and a few others on Wednesday. Wednesday will be another scorcher, but for those stuck working outdoors, it will have the benefit of being breezy. .NEW PATTERN... An upper trof - crashing through Seattle on Monday - drives through the High Plains two days later, bringing a cold front Wednesday night and attendant chance PoPs (10 west - 70% east). Wednesday afternoon and evening have been highlighted by the SPC with a 15% chance for severe weather in an area that stretches from the Canadian border to about Blair, NE and Des Moines, IA. There will be lots of instability and steep lapse rates with the high dewpoints and temperatures in place. Storm modes may begin as supercells capable of tornadoes, but shear vectors are nearly aligned with the progged front, meaning they may coalesce into clusters quickly. Temps, while cooler on Thursday, will actually remain just above normal with afternoon maximums in the 80s. Global deterministic models begin to diverge in solutions from this point, but keep regular chances for summer showers and storms parading through the Great Plains as the mid-lattitude jet`s proximity assures regular chances as precip. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 VFR ceilings at the start of the TAF period are expected to gradually deteriorate to MVFR from south to north Sunday morning. A few spotty showers and storms will also be possible throughout the day Sunday. While exact timing and location of storms remains uncertain, the best chance for thunder will be from 17-20Z at KLNK and 18-22Z at KOMA. If precipitation manages to reach as far north as KOFK, the highest chance for storms looks to be from 19-23Z. VFR conditions are expected to return by 00Z this evening at all three TAF sites. Winds will remain out of the south/southeast at 10 to 12 kts, with occasional gusts up to 20 kts possible. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 3-7" or more fell in the Turkey/Swan Creek basins late Friday evening into the overnight hours, with additional rainfall ending up in the Big Blue basin as well. Turkey Creek has reacted strongly near De Witt, which is forecast to hit minor flood stage Saturday evening, while local reaches of the Big Blue wait until Monday/Tuesday to crest in action to flood stage. Confidence in the forecasts for the Big Blue will increase as we go forward, with potential flood warning to be issued if the current forecast near Dorchester holds going forward. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...KG HYDROLOGY...Petersen