Mt. Crescent Ski Area snow report

703 FXUS63 KOAX 270507 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1207 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild weather continues through Saturday, with a strong to severe storm possible Saturday evening, primarily across northeast Nebraska. - Heat builds this weekend, with the hottest conditions expected Sunday and Monday. Heat index values may reach 105 to 110 degrees. - Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist into next week, with periodic evening and overnight thunderstorm chances. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2026 Extreme Heat Watches and Heat Advisories have been issued through Tuesday due to the expected extreme, persistent heat forecast to impact the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 High temperatures today generally peaked near 80F with much cooler conditions where Kansas/Nebraska/Missouri meet. Falls City and its neighbors only peaked in the lower 70s under persistent overcast skies that hung at about 1200 ft AGL. Current WV imagery reveals mostly zonal flow over the central CONUS with a negatively tilted trof pushing onto the West Coast. A stationary front hung up across eastern Kansas trailing back to the Front Range is the focus for tonight`s regional convection. Our area will remain dry for the night. It`s a beautiful one. Have introduced fog into the forecast for tonight with best chances of impactful visibility restrictions being west of the Missouri River. Already visibility observations in northeast KS and NW Missouri are quickly slipping. Expect the fog and low clouds to push in from the southeast. HREF and NBM probabilities currently place odds at dipping below 5 miles of visibility at 20-60% for areas west of a line from Norfolk to Lincoln. I think chances are much better than that. The primary fly in the ointment will be the winds which will remain blowing at 5-10 mph out of the southeast overnight. Still, confidence in fog development is high. I`ve got Omaha and Lincoln`s visibility dipping to 3-4 miles and below two miles in the Norfolk area and counties on the western periphery of the CWA. .SATURDAY... Mid-level ridging is anticipated ahead of the western trofing, allowing heights to rise. However, the fog may be slow to lift as overcast skies are anticipated to linger through at least the first half of Saturday. Thanks to the cloud cover, high temperatures will be stunted. Despite the familiar temperatures, it will feel stickier as dewpoints will be about 10F higher. Winds will remain out of the southeast, quicker at sustained speeds of 10-20 knots. Highs will peak near normal only one afternoon of this forecast and it`s day 1. Take advantage if you`ve got outdoor exertion ahead of you. A potent shortwave works over the Peru, NE / Clarinda, IA area in the afternoon / early evening. Have bumped up PoPs to 20% earlier in the day to correspond. Expect gray skies to be a safer bet. Better precip chances wait for after midnight Saturday night / early Sunday morning as the stationary front south of here pushes north as a warm front. A nocturnal LLJ should help kick some convection along the front (PoPs of 30-40% northeast). A severe risk is possible with all severe modes possible as sfc based supercells are possible. Some guidance suggests capping won`t be overcome. Count me in on Team Thunder. The marginal convective outlook is based on this conditional threat. .SUNDAY and MONDAY... The pattern becomes more amplified over the course of Sunday leaving southwest flow stretching from Baja, CA through Fargo, ND. Skies clear from south to north early Sunday morning as the warm front continues northeast. Under the sunshine and quick southerly sfc flow, temps will race into the 90s with dewpoints peaking between 68 and 78F. This will allow heat indices to push into the triple digits for most locations. If the current forecast holds, 105-110 heat indices would be met over the eastern 2/3 of the CWA (heat advisory criteria). A sfc low tracks through the Dakotas, leaving them with significant PoPs, but Iowa and Nebraska will remain dry. Monday`s forecast is very similar with heat indices nearly identical and continued quick southerly winds, but with the dangerous heat expanding farther into Iowa where corn sweat pushes dewpoints close to 80F at times. Rain and storm chances return (30-60%) to the forecast Monday night when a cold front settles south across central Nebraska. We`re not yet outlooked by the SPC and shear looks sub- par, but machine- learning forecasts do highlight an opportunity for severe weather. .BEYOND... Tuesday`s cold front doesn`t pack a cold punch. We`d settle for a "less hot" punch, but the front actually lifts back north and temperatures remain toasty through the work week. Expect 90s to linger. The extended nature of the heat is concerning. With overnight minimum heat indices remaining in the mid-70s, rooms/buildings with no A/C will be very difficult to keep cool. Heat`s impacts grow over the course of consecutive days. Pattern recognition suggests that the area may be subjected to overnight MCS passages as the nocturnal LLJ feeds humidity and instability into the area. Should this materialize once or twice, severe weather is possible (especially winds), but temperature forecasts are subject to bust as remnant cloud cover or cold pools have been known to throw a cooling wrench into summer plans. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2026 Low clouds are starting to spread across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with IFR/LIFR conditions expected to develop at the terminals overnight. Low clouds will hold into the morning on Saturday with winds increasing out of the southeast, gusting to 25KT. Expect cigs to slowly lift through the morning into the afternoon with VFR conditions likely starting around 18Z at KOFK and closer to 20-21Z at KOMA and KLNK. May see low clouds return to at least northeast Nebraska and KOFK Saturday night. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ015- 034-044-045-050-051-065>068-078-088>093. Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NEZ052-053. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012. IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ043- 055-056. Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday evening for IAZ069-079-080-090-091. && $$ UPDATE...McCoy DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...McCoy