Mt. Crescent Ski Area Snow Report

843 FXUS63 KOAX 150526 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1226 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic chances for showers and storms continue into the weekend, briefly clearing Sunday evening through Monday. - Temperatures remain near or just below normal on Saturday with highs dropping below normal across our area Sunday-Monday. - Periodic chances of showers and storms return Monday night through Thursday with late week looking mild and dry. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1106 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 A band of storms have developed along a boundary to our south and appear likely to lift north into southeast Nebraska over the next few hours. While model soundings show they will have to overcome a fairly stout dry layer below 700-mb, a few 00Z CAMs show they could persist across southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa overnight. Have added PoPs overnight for these areas to account for this. Shear will remain weak, so not expecting any of these storms to organize into anything severe though locally heavy rainfall will be possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 855 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 We had a limited area for potential storms this evening over southwest Iowa, but cloud cover kept temperatures slightly too cool for air parcels to be able to lift above the inversion in place around 750-800 mb. We saw agitated cu try to develop, but nothing was able to take off. Now the shortwave has passed, precip chances have dwindled, with clouds forecast to continue to break up across our area. More significant clearing expected over northeast Nebraska setting up an excellent scenario for fog development. This will expand south and east, more as low stratus overnight with reduced visibility still likely for areas along and north of a line from Seward to Plattsmouth, east to Red Oak, IA. A Dense Fog Advisory may be necessary for a portion of northeast Nebraska, but it`s uncertain at this time the extent of potential dense fog. Meanwhile, recent heavy rain has led to rises on local rivers. Maple Creek near Nickerson is cresting just around Minor Flood Stage here at 8-9pm, so a Flood Warning was issued along this creek through 10pm. Zooming back out to the big picture, a broad upper-level ridge remains in place over the Central Plains and Mid-Mo River Valley. Shortwaves inducing mesoscale vorticity maxima have been triggering our showers and storms the last couple of nights. The good news is tonight is looking pretty quiet, but the next shortwave arrives Saturday morning bringing more showers and weak storms to the region. Morning cloud cover should limit the amount of surface-based instability, but steep lapse rates around 750-600 mb will create enough elevated instability for a few storms to develop through the morning. Strongest activity with this MCV should stay down in northeast KS into northern Missouri through Saturday afternoon. More likely we see scattered showers with a few embedded weak thunderstorms through the day, starting with the arrival of the MCV around 6am, diminishing mid-morning, and reigniting during the afternoon around 3pm-ish clearing east by 7pm. Another shortwave will trigger showers and storms along the elevated thermal front over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Saturday night into early Sunday. Not expecting anything organized as though we have plenty of elevated instability, shear through the storm layer is relatively weak. The upper-level ridge shifts eastward on Sunday putting us in more zonal southwesterly flow aloft. As this occurs, we see a push of northerly low-level winds finally clear the stationary boundary to our south during the afternoon. This will clear any lingering shower/storm chances and limit our daytime highs on Sunday, only reaching the mid 70s north to low 80s south. We stay mostly dry on Monday as the upper-level regime continues to shift to a more zonal flow pattern between the flattening ridge to our east and building ridge over Baja California. The milder Canadian air mass remains in place, keeping highs in the low-to-mid 80s. We to see a slight chance of showers and storms in far northeast Nebraska Monday from potential nocturnal storms moving in from Central Nebraska, but precip chances are only around 20 percent. Tuesday into Wednesday will bring back a more active northwesterly flow pattern as ridging continues to build out west. Better precip chances return to northeast Nebraska Monday night into early Tuesday. A trough dips out of Saskatchewan/Manitoba bringing another cold front south through the Dakotas into northern Nebraska Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Models slightly differ on the behavior of this front, with some stalling it across our area bringing a more extended period of showers and storms. Others clear it out to our south leading to a drier Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. In either case, milder temperatures look to persist through the end of the week with cooler canadian High staying in place across the region going into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Low clouds and fog will lead to MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility across much of the area into Saturday morning, with fog expected to dissipate by 14-15Z. A few storms will also push across southeast NE and southwest IA overnight, though current track would keep them southeast of TAF sites. Additional shower and storm development is expected by late morning/afternoon, with OFK with the highest chances of seeing TS. Ceilings should improve through the day with VFR conditions expected outside of storms by mid to late afternoon. Winds will remain light and mostly easterly to southeasterly overnight, before they become northerly by late morning/early afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...McCoy DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...CA