Mt. Crescent Ski Area snow report

273 FXUS63 KOAX 170538 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1238 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The ongoing round of severe storms ending early Sunday morning. The rest of the morning hours will be cool and breezy, but become warm and muggy later Sunday - Severe storms will develop again on Sunday afternoon. Very large hail, damaging downburst winds, and tornadoes will be possible. The greatest severe potential will be northwest of a Lincoln to Harlan line. - A final round of severe storms develops on Monday afternoon. Very large hail, damaging downburst winds, and tornadoes are once again possible, particularly southeast of a Seward to Onawa line. - Much cooler conditions are expected for the rest of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Overview: A volatile severe weather setup will affect the local forecast area through Monday, with multiple rounds of severe storms likely each day, and significant severe weather at times, including very large hail and tornadoes. Early Sunday: Widespread thunderstorms have been very efficient in eating up instability late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. This will be capped off by a broad arc of surging severe thunderstorms working along the Nebraska/Kansas state line. This bow echo will push off to the east of the forecast area by around 3 AM, give or take with a broad stable region overspreading the area and pushing south into KS. Currently believe that the stable airmass will spread 40 to 70 miles south of the KS/NE border. Normally would suspect it would dive farther south, but the 0-3 km shear vectors are favoring ENE gusting segments with this main bow, and the overall flow pattern with an incoming strong short wave with negative tilt and developing surface low will quickly draw the unstable airmass back north. All this to say that the area is set up for a pretty pleasant morning on Sunday after a rainy Saturday night. But that will change over the course of the day. Sunday afternoon into Sunday night: The center of the upper trough axis will remain well to the west on Sunday but an embedded lead short wave trough and attendant jet streak will eject from eastern CO into eastern NE during the day. An elongated trough of surface low pressure will extend from the main surface low in southeast CO up through south central NE and into southeast SD. Expect this to be a zone of persistent strong deep moist convergence through the afternoon. Additionally, there is a strong model signal for a narrow dryline surge into central NE and central KS during the afternoon. East of this, in the warm sector, middle to upper 60s dewpoints will surge back north during the day. This will set up very strong instability with MLCAPE likely in the 3000-4000 J/kg range. It is worth noting that even amidst this highly unstable environment, there is a slight weakness in the mid- level winds, so forecast parameters such as the 0-6 km shear vector are not particularly impressive. However, one look at hodographs tells a story of ample cyclonic curvature in the lowest portions of the hodograph with what is likely enough of a wind difference to keep the updrafts relatively clean of downdrafts. Model guidance is consistent in destabilizing sufficiently for initiation by 4 PM, and would not be surprised if it`s slightly earlier. That initial convective initiation will likely extend on a north-south line from Knox County down through Boone County, and due south from there. This is where things get especially interesting. The strength of the forcing will play a significant role in whether storm mode becomes linear or remains largely cellular. The deep shear vectors, while not large in magnitude, are largely perpendicular to the line, so as long as the forcing isn`t overwhelming, convection is likely to remain cellular. The significant speed and directional shear in the lowest levels, impressive at initiation and increasing notably into the early evening hours, point to the potential of quick organization into a line of supercells with tornado, hail, and downburst potential. Any longer-lived supercell features that can persist into the intensifying environmental shear conditions will have a chance to produce strong tornadoes. With that said, the storm mode is not a simple forecast with this event, and will have some dependency upon those mid-level winds, timing of convective onset, and intensity of linear forcing. Monday: The primary trough and strongest jet streak eject across Nebraska on Monday. Sunday`s convection looks to clear the area very early Monday morning, and once again expect a robust early-day recharge of moisture and instability north into Nebraska and Iowa. There are question marks regarding just how far north and east this will extend, but a majority of 00Z model guidance brings it well north, perhaps extending as far as a Hebron to Wahoo to Onawa line by early to mid afternoon. Warm sector instability will once again be quite strong. Deep layer wind shear will be sufficient for supercells storm mode to be dominant. Storm motion may take these storms slightly more parallel to the initiating boundary which may complicate storm mode, but most all signs point to a broken line of supercells, potentially training over some areas, with favorable hodographs for sustained supercells, very large hail, downdrafts, and tornadoes. Also see potential for strong tornadoes particularly in long-lived, more isolated supercells. The question is not necessarily the available ingredients for severe weather on Monday, but the locations in which they will be present...how far north and west. And we may not know that with great confidence until Monday morning. After Monday: Temperatures cool sharply with highs in the 50s and 60s at mid week and even some potential for frost on a couple of mornings. Then another slow warmup expected by the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A line of strong to severe storms is observed south of KLNK this morning, and should continue to track east away from the TAF site. Model guidance hints at some potential for storm redevelopment that may impact terminals through at least 09z so have introduced TEMPO mentions with this issuance. The bulk of showers and storms should exit after 12z. Some guidance also indicates a potential lowering of ceilings to MVFR after 12z, particularly at KOFK. By the late morning into the afternoon, will see gusty southeasterly winds overspread terminals with gusts of 30 to 35 kts at times. More showers and storms are forecast to develop toward the late afternoon and evening hours, and these will once again have the potential to become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for NEZ050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for IAZ069-079- 080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Castillo