Nebraski Snow Report

840 FXUS63 KOAX 110435 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1135 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty 25 to 30 mph winds expected for most areas Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. 15-20% chance for some storms Friday evening, some of which could be severe with large hail and strong wind gusts. - Active pattern continues with more storm chances this weekend into much of next week. Some storms could be severe Saturday evening and again Monday. - Highs reach the 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday, followed by a brief warm up Monday, then cooling down to the 60s to low 70s Tuesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 03z RAP objective analysis reveals weak H5 ridging across the Northern Plains, while to the west, a shortwave trof over western Wyoming has spun up a sfc low. The 1017 mb sfc high which brought our fantastic weather on Thursday has finally pushed off to the east, resulting in a pressure gradient setting up across much of Nebraska into the Dakotas. This will result in south southwesterly winds gradually increasing into the early morning hours Friday. Increased PBL mixing by the late morning and afternoon to just around H8 where a 30 to 40 kt LLJ is should help bring some more momentum downward, resulting in frequent gusts of 35 to 40 mph across far northeast Nebraska. Expect slightly lower gusts of 25 to 30 mph for the remainder of the area. Highs warm to the upper 80s to low 90s with a few passing clouds. By late Friday afternoon into the evening hours, will see the sfc cold front swing through the forecast area while the parent low tracks over eastern SD into southwest MN. Forcing along the frontal feature combined with weak large scale forcing for ascent from the H5 wave could spark some convection. Model guidance indicates an instability plume of 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg overspreading much of northeast Nebraska Friday evening, and with 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 kts, can`t rule out seeing strong to severe convection. However, newest 00z hires CAMs seem to struggle developing much convection in the forecast area. Forecast BUFKIT soundings suggest some CIN of 150 to 200 J/kg remaining in the low levels, and with the bulk of large scale forcing for ascent tied to the stronger H5 wave in the eastern Dakotas and MN, convection may struggle to get going across our area. If we can manage to get convection, the main threat would likely be damaging wind gusts given low level dry air noted by soundings and also large hail with steep H7-H5 lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. More redevelopment is plausible into early Saturday morning, particularly across the southern half of the forecast area as H8 WAA lingers there along with another weak H5 wave traversing the westerly flow. With this update, have kept PoPs at 15 to 20% from 00z to 11z Saturday given the low confidence in storms developing, and have confined the PoPs to the frontal area. Saturday will see the sfc frontal feature linger across the border in Kansas and Missouri. Looking aloft, could still see some remnant WAA driven forcing in the late morning hours that could spark more convection (PoPs of 15 to 30% primarily over southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa). By the late afternoon, will see more instability pool near and along that frontal zone. RAP forecast soundings along the southern Nebraska/Kansas border area show instability ranging from 1,500 to 2,000 J/kg, but some CIN/capping is seen too. Large scale forcing still appears to lack around this timeframe too with subtle H5 height rises progged over the area, which could limit the storm threat. If storms can develop, the 0-6 km bulk shear of around 30 kts could promote a few strong storms in that general vicinity capable of strong wind gusts and large hail as we`ll have fairly long hodographs and steep H7-H5 lapse rates near 8 C/km. At this time, PoPs remain at 20 to 30% along and south of Interstate 80. Expect cooler highs in the mid 70s, while highs near 80F are forecast in southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa. 30 to 40% precip chances continue into the overnight hours into Sunday as another H5 impulse moves through and H8 LLJ WAA/moisture advection persists. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Rainy conditions should carry over into Sunday with areawide PoPs of 60 to 80% forecast as the H8 baroclinic zone swings northeastward. By Monday morning, should see an intensifying shortwave trof eject from the Montana/Alberta area east northeast toward the Dakotas/Manitoba. The feature will spawn another sfc low that tracks north of the area, while the sfc front swings through most of the Northern Plains. Ahead of the frontal feature, expect gusty 30-35 mph southwesterly winds across the area. A plume of 500-1,000 J/kg of instability will also overspread the area, and combined with sfc convergence along the front, could see more convection develop. Strong to severe convection could develop, but it`s worth noting that the bulk of 0-6 km shear is located near to just behind the frontal boundary and not collocated in the best plume of instability. Better H7-H5 midlevel forcing appears once again focused in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota area. Some guidance does hint at a subtle wave trekking through the Central Plains during the day which could help provide more large scale lift. At this time, PoPs of 60 to 80% are forecast for most of southeast Nebraska into western Iowa Monday evening into Tuesday. PoP chances continue into Wednesday and Thursday as we remain in a zonal to slightly southwesterly flow and continued disturbances ride it. Temperatures in the long term will range from the 70s to low 80s Sunday, followed by a brief warm up Monday to the 80s and low 90s, then cooling down to the 60s to low 70s (yay, fall!) Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1126 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. Southeast winds late this evening become southerly overnight. A developing area of low pressure to the west should gradually increase wind speeds into Friday. LLWS is expected to develop west of the region. OFK may approach LLWS criteria overnight, but guidance keeps them below this threshold. Ahead of this system, patchy fog and MVFR ceilings may move north from Kansas and Missouri into far southern portions of the area by Friday morning. It is not anticipated that fog or low clouds will reach area terminals. As a result aviation impacts are not expected, but a few clouds could develop. Thunderstorm chances are not anticipated until late Friday afternoon and evening. Initial thunderstorm will be focused over northeast Nebraska, but the chance is low (15-30%). && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Chehak