Nebraski Snow Report

813 FXUS63 KOAX 220503 CCA AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1203 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm weather continues through Friday with highs in the 70s and a few areas in the low 80s. - Winds gusting to around 40-45 mph on Friday will be a concern for some limited fire impacts in areas with cured fuels. However, the strongest winds will not be co-located with the lowest RH values. - Shower and storm chances increase this weekend through Monday (60-80%). Expect a cooling trend from Saturday onward with highs reaching the 50s to low 60s by Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1115 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026 A quiet night of weather has settled in across the area with calm winds and clear skies. The RAP`s H5 jet analysis shows ridging directly over eastern Nebraska/South Dakota. Deep closed lows spin off each coast. Primary concern in the short-term is the probability of fog development overnight. Guidance is generally discouraging the inclusion of fog in the forecast, but the wind and dewpoint depression suggest otherwise. Have limited fog to areas just south of the stationary front draped near the Platte River where moisture is pooled and river valleys shielded from any wind. Believe that the stronger winds just off the sfc should help limit development. Confidence is low. Lows (and dewpoints) should hit bottom in the low 50s under mostly clear skies. .THURSDAY... Potential fog would linger until 930 or 10am in spots as wind speeds will be slow to pick up and mixing will initially be shallow. By the afternoon, winds of 8-15 knots are forecast out of the south. Temps will best Monday`s numbers by a couple of degrees as the ridge noses farther north over the CWA and heights inch (meter?) upward. Expect a few 80s mixing in with the upper 70s by the afternoon`s peak. .FRIDAY... Early Friday morning brings a small chance of showers (25%) along the SD state line thanks to isentropic uplift produced by the LLJ. Chances are limited to between about 2am and 7am only. QPF is nearly negligible and with the breezy southerly winds forecast, any accumulation will evaporate quickly. As the West Coast low ejects northeast, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Mid-Mo Valley. Southerly wind speeds of 15-25 mph are forecast by mid- day with gusts up to 40mph expected in northeast Nebraska. Current T/Td differences puts min RH mostly in the 30s, with some areas along the KS state line into the upper 20s. Thankfully, highest wind speeds and lowest humidity areas are not co- located. These numbers aren`t all that far off of some of the RED FLAG WARNING criteria, so small alterations in the forecast could necessitate an issuance. .THE WEEKEND... Lee cyclogenesis on Friday night leads to a front being drug across the area on Friday as the low streaks northeast. This will leave a wide range of temps across the area by Saturday afternoon with numbers ranging from the mid-60s near Niobrara to close to 80F ahead of the front at Lincoln and Omaha and points south. Post- frontal showers and storms are possible (40%) in northeast Nebraska through the day. Sunday brings better rain chances farther south and cooler conditions for all but the southeastern most locales as the front sags farther south. .NEXT WEEK... Best rain chances wait for Monday when the trough/closed low sweeps through the Central Great Plains. Likely PoPs are forecast for all areas along and north of I-80. Best chances of accumulating an inch over the course of Sunday and Monday will be areas northwest of Columbus, NE where the 48 hour period brings about a 55% chance of besting 1". Those chances fade to about 10% by the time you drive south or east to Beatrice, Nebraska City, or Atlantic, IA. .LONGER RANGE... Cool autumnal temperatures look to stick around for a while as zonal flow develops by mid-week. The mid-lattitude jet looks to push a parade of disturbances through the northern tier of states keeping temps down and occasional small PoPs... popping. The 6-10 day outlook by the CPC suggests odds lean warmer and wetter for the final days of October 2026 in the Corn Belt. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Guidance continues to hint at fog development overnight, but winds aloft look to stay strong enough to keep it patch, so chances of impacts at TAF sites remains under 30%. Otherwise, expect some passing mid to high clouds with south to southeast winds at 10 kts and gusting 18-20 kts at LNK and OFK. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...CA