Mulligan's Hollow Ski Bowl Snow Report

218 FXUS63 KGRR 150748 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 348 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms this weekend - Drier and more comfortable Monday - Midweek shower/storm chance && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 - Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms this weekend Quasi-stationary front with active convection remains stuck over Illinois and Indiana. With an 850 mb ridge moving east of the area, some higher low-level moisture (increasingly muggy dew points) will drift into southern Lower Michigan this weekend. Limited upper-level shortwave forcing, thin CAPE, and weak vertical shear will make for generally meager convection today, often along zones of temporarily increased surface confluence. PWAT will be rather high, so despite the model trends to back away from heavier mean QPF solutions, rain totals around 0.5 to 1 inch remain possible but will be patchy and isolated, and mainly near and south of I-96. Anticipating muggy air with dew points in the lower to mid 70s on Sunday. Areas of fog are possible in the morning given the moist, still air and the potential for skies to partially clear Saturday night. 850 mb temperatures on Sunday will be a little warmer while 500 mb heights fall as the upper-level ridge flattens out a bit. As a result, CAPE should climb toward 1000 J/kg during the day. Scattered thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of a cold front and/or midlevel MCV. Heavier downpours will remain the mode in any thunderstorms, and hit-or-miss heavier totals greater than an inch are possible. - Drier and more comfortable Monday Behind the cold front, high temperatures Monday may not be much cooler, though will be noticeably less humid as air from the northern plains flows through. A good amount of sunshine is also expected. - Midweek shower/storm chance Late Tuesday into Wednesday, somewhat increased low-level moisture returns from the central CONUS, then upper-level heights fall and a cold front sags through, associated with an upper- level low over Hudson Bay and a trough digging into Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. Instability builds and scattered thunderstorms may develop with hit-or-miss beneficial rain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Generally less favorable flight conditions are expected in southern Michigan and better conditions in central, while aerodromes such as MKG, GRR, and LAN may experience more of a mix of conditions. The onset of worsening flight categories is rather low confidence in timing as models have not been handling the weakly forced showers well so far, and later shower development on Saturday is also expected to be weakly forced. It is possible that these TAFs are too optimistic, and temporary IFR visibility may occur today under moderate rain showers, and patchy MVFR ceilings may develop as the lower atmosphere moistens inconsistently. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Offshore flow today will keep waves low at West Michigan beaches while larger waves build in the open waters toward Wisconsin. More of a west wind at 10 knots is expected on Sunday, making waves about 1 to 3 feet. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occasionally develop over the lake this weekend. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...CAS MARINE...CAS