Possum Hills Ski Area Snow Report

015 FXUS64 KLUB 080507 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1207 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1151 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 - Well above normal temperatures continue. Wednesday is expected to be the hottest day of the week, when record high temperatures are possible (upper 90s to mid 100s). - Isolated to scattered storms are possible Wednesday evening and Thursday (20-40% chance). - There remains potential for a cooler and wetter trend early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 An expansive upper ridge remains evident in satellite imagery over the south-central US Monday evening. The upper low that was over the Pacific NW yesterday has shifted to north-central Canada, and this system will continue to eject onto the northern Plains tomorrow with an associated sfc low tracking across Canada. Locally, the above normal, hot temperatures and dry conditions should continue through the day on Wednesday. Temps will warm compared to the holiday weekend, as the upper ridge strengthens into mid-week. Guidance keeps temps a tad below heat advisory criteria off the Caprock on Tues (highs around 102-103F), but Wed is expected to be the warmest day of the week and the probability of reaching heat advisory criteria increases above 50% across the far southeast TX Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. Highs on the Caprock are expected to be in the upper 90s. These values will be near or above record values for Lubbock and Childress. Normal high temps for this time of year are in the upper 80s area-wide, so we`re looking at 10- 15 degree anomalies. Lows also remain seasonably warm, near 70 on the Caprock and mid 70s off the Caprock, which again is 5-10 degrees above normal. That aforementioned Canadian sfc low will send a front arcing as far southwest as the TX/OK Panhandles by Wed, but current guidance keeps any associated precip north of the FA, at least through Wed afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 The main challenge for the forecast this week is pinpointing exactly how far south the front (or convective outflows) track before stalling and weakening. This will ultimately determine our precip chances Wed evening into Thurs. By this point in the forecast, the center of the upper ridge will be shifting to the SW CONUS, resulting in NW flow aloft locally that advects some of the monsoonal moisture and results in height falls aloft, which alone isn`t sufficient for precip but at least makes conditions a bit more supportive compared to being directly beneath the ridge. As has been the case in previous forecast cycles, guidance still favors the front staying north of our area Wed PM, keeping PoPs higher across WFO Amarillo`s FA compared to ours. However, the few high-res models that do go out that far depict an outflow pushing across the northern half of our FA, so perhaps that could kick off some convection. The deep well-mixed boundary layer (with DCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg) will certainly support progressive cold pools/outflows. Whether it is the front itself sagging south or remnant outflows aiding precip development, the model blend has the highest PoPs on Thurs (20-40%). While a dramatic cooldown is unlikely, guidance does favor temps a few degrees cooler than Tues-Wed, with highs in the mid 90s on the Caprock and upper 90s off the Caprock. Temps quickly rebound late week into the weekend as the upper ridge shifts back east, albeit with heights not as strong as our mid- week ridge. Nevertheless, 500mb heights are expected to be near or above the 90th percentile of the model climatology, resulting in highs back in the upper 90s (on the Caprock) to low 100s (off the Caprock). These forecast values are a few degrees shy of the records for Sep 11-12. Guidance is slowly coming into better agreement regarding the timing of the next Pacific NW upper low, favoring its emergence onto the northern Plains early next week. This may lead to a welcome cooling trend next week (although broad model spread remains regarding the exact extent of the cooling). Both the GEFS and EC Ens have a reasonable chance (20-50%) of below normal temps next Tues-Wed (Sep 15-16). Normal highs for mid-September are in the mid-80s. Some skepticism of this cool down is still warranted, however, as deterministic models depict the anomalous upper ridge persisting across portions of the south-central or southeast US next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...51