Ski Snowstar Snow Report

476 FXUS63 KDVN 160648 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 148 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front to pass through the area on Sunday, bringing the chance for isolated-scattered showers and storms for some. Severe weather is not expected at this time. - High pressure will bring a period of much needed quiet and dry weather through much of Sunday and Monday. - A shortwave will drag a cold front through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing the chance for overnight storms. Some storms may be strong to severe, with severe winds being the main concern. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 131 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 After another bout of rainfall and light/variable winds prior to sunrise Sunday, there will be the chance for some locations to see fog develop. This will largely be favored in eastern Iowa and remain focused along river valleys. Although, given passing clouds and increasing winds out of the northwest near sunrise, this should be a localized threat. Upper wave passing through the area will slowly drag a cold front through the area today, passing northwest to southeast. This front will be slow to pass through, with it clearing our southeastern half of the area this afternoon. We will see quite the moisture gradient along this front, with dewpoints ahead of it in the mid 70s crashing into the low-mid 60s on the back end tonight. This, along with the shortwave overhead, will allow for showers/storms to develop in the afternoon hours. Overall, we are uncertain on the coverage of the showers/storms. Best chances are currently for areas along/east of the Mississippi River in west-central Illinois. Although, an isolated shower/storm cannot be ruled out along the remainder of the cold front. Heavy rainfall and lightning will be the main concern with any thunderstorm, with the severe risk low. This activity will also be progressive and move out of the area relatively quickly along the front, limiting the flash flood threat. Overall, confidence is low on coverage and short term guidance would favor most locations remaining dry through the day. This boundary will largely clear the area by early-mid evening Sunday, leaving us with decreasing cloud cover, humidity, and temperatures. From there, surface high pressure will pass over the area on Monday, bringing a beautiful day to start the new work week. There will be plenty of sun, which we have not seen much of lately. Enjoy the beautiful start to the week! && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 131 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Tuesday and Wednesday... Upper level northwest flow will remain over the area, which will continue to drive bouts of energy through the region. Long term guidance is in general agreement on a stronger wave passing through Iowa Tuesday night into Wednesday, dragging a cold front through the area. A look at model soundings would indicate that the environment ahead of it will be sufficient for some strong to severe storms. Shear will generally be between 30-40 KTs with modest instability, favoring the chance for some organized convection. A look at the environment and overall pattern would favor the potential for an overnight MCS to potentially impact the area. Main hazards with this would be severe wind gusts, with heavy rain and frequent lightning. The SPC is also highlighting much of the area in a Slight Risk, or level 2/5, for severe weather. There remains some uncertainty on timing and convective coverage, owing to differences amongst guidance. As more short term guidance comes in over the coming days, we will be able to hone in on some of the finer details. Beyond... Northwest flow will remain through the remainder of the week, as a ridge builds over the Central CONUS and guides another shortwave through the area on Thursday into Friday. Moisture will remain limited, which should limit precipitation chances. Some guidance brings in overnight PoPs, as a weak LLJ converges into the wave. Although, PoPs are largely <20% area-wide. Thus, much of the area should remain dry going into Friday. The main wave with better forcing will pass through during the day of Friday, bringing low-end PoPs in our north. In the end, much of the area will remain dry through this stretch. The weather is currently geared to be quite nice to end the week, with temperatures in the upper 70s, a mix of clouds/sun, and comfortable humidity. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Widely varying conditions are being seen amongst area terminals, with DBQ/CID dealing with low cigs and fog/mist while MLI/BRL are largely VFR at the start of the TAF period. Overnight, we will continue to see a broken-overcast stratus deck overtake our north and reaching as far south as MLI. This will bring cigs below 1000 ft to our north, remaining around 1000-2000 ft at MLI. Vis should remain around 5/6 SM due to higher humidity producing mist. Otherwise, BRL will see some lower cigs as we approach 12z Sunday, resulting from pooling moisture along a nearby boundary and showers passing south of the terminal. Otherwise, between 15-18z Sunday, we will see cigs start to scatter and lift, leaving us with VFR conditions for the remainder of the day. Winds between 06-12z will largely be light and variable, becoming more westerly in time. After 12z, we will see winds increase to near 10 KTs out of the northwest throughout the area for the remainder of the day. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...Gunkel