Steeplechase Ski & Snowboard snow report

799 FXUS63 KARX 130631 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 131 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing showers and storms gradually weaken while shifting east north of Interstate 90 through west-central and central Wisconsin overnight. - Shower and storm chances return across the southern half of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Low confidence for strong to severe storms forming locally. - While showers possible Sunday, more widespread precipitation and storm chances return Monday night through Tuesday. Precipitation chances also frequent longer term forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Overnight Showers & Storms: Ongoing showers and storms progress east through the northern half of the forecast area overnight, gradually weakening along a low level stretching axis extending from the Central Plains through the northern Great Lakes on area VWPs. Precipitation & Storm Chances Return Saturday Aft/Eve: Mostly dry conditions through Saturday cease through the afternoon/evening as a low level stretching axis and frontal boundary sag slightly south, increasing precipitation and storm chances primarily across the southern half of the forecast area from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. While high resolution forecast models suggest ample instability (1000+ J/kg SBCAPE: RAP 13.02Z) due to pockets of steepened mid level lapse rates, shear profiles are erratic and spatially splotchy across the forecast area from near unidirectional low level flow along the axis of dilatation. Therefore, recent high resolution soundings vary within and between models regarding local severe weather threat from fully accessing mid level shear sufficient for severe storms to light showers. Given higher confidence for increased shear confined to the mid levels, should severe storms form over the forecast area large hail and damaging winds would be the main threat. Near normal (SPC RAOB Climatology) Precipitable Water values (GOES-dervied) of 1" keep heavy rain and subsequent flooding threat minimized. Precipitation & Storm Chances Return Monday Night & Tuesday: Besides shower and sprinkle chances through Sunday due to pockets of steep low level lapse rates, more widespread precipitation chances return Monday night through Tuesday as the synoptic mid level low amplifies from unification with a retrograding mid level low over the North Atlantic on GOES WV imagery. Long range ensembles and cluster analyses differ on location and strength of mid level wave affecting mid level lapse rates and available local instability. Therefore, current confidence remains low for local storm potential although confidence is high (60-90%), albeit varying, for 0.1" of QPF in a 24 hour timeframe. Shower and storm chances frequent the longer term forecast period from waves of mid level positive vorticity advection within synoptic confluent west-northwest flow. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 VFR conditions currently present at the terminals. An area of scattered showers continues to move east across the Upper Midwest. Have added TEMPOs to the terminals as some upstream obs have seen some slight degradations in visibilities to MVFR with the strongest cores. This activity should move off to the east later overnight with VFR conditions prevailing at the terminals for the rest of the period. Some showers and storms will be possible later in the day but confidence at the terminals is still too low (less than 20 percent) to include with this package as chances remain better south of the I-90 corridor. South/southwesterly winds early in the period will become northwesterly by the afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Gusts to around 25 kts will be possible during the afternoon before tapering off by this evening. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...Barendse