Sunrise Park Resort Snow Report

757 FXUS65 KFGZ 200501 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1001 PM MST Sun Jul 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Deep monsoonal moisture will remain over the area through this weekend and well into next week. With this moisture comes the daily threat of thunderstorms, along with the risk for locally heavy rainfall and flooding. With the added moisture and cloud cover, most daytime temperatures will remain below normal. && .DISCUSSION...Despite a night of widespread nocturnal thunderstorm activity, skies are the overall the clearest they have been in several days this morning. The increased heating and delay in convective initiation until the afternoon does increase the chance for some stronger wind gusts, especially just north of the rim. However, the main focus remains isolated flash flood potential with yet another day that features PW values and dew points about as high as the Monsoon Season can furnish. It will rain, just a question of when and where. Our current steering flow (this governs where storms go after they form) remains easterly or northeasterly for the next several days. This steering flow may transition to more of a southeasterly direction later next week, but that remains to be seen. The current steering flow heavily favors locations just to the southwest, south and west of the central Mogollon Rim. A secondary area usually forms later each day across Apache and Navajo counties or over western New Mexico. These secondary areas are what supports nocturnal convection, which is expected at least for the next few nights. The nocturnal signal is fairly strong, largely due to the delayed convective development each day. Compounding the issue is the arrival of an easterly wave, likely arriving Monday and Tuesday, possibly residing over central Arizona even into Wednesday. This easterly wave will increase storm motion and shear, which could strengthen storms and lead to a hail threat. While increased storm motion may lessen the flooding threat, it also leads to the possibility of training storms (additional thunderstorms forming over the same location). The bottom line, a very active and possibly historically wet period will continue until further notice. Pertaining to the daily possibility of a Flash Flood Watch, we will again hold off, due the the complications of convective development that were outlined above. && .AVIATION...Monday 20/06Z through Tuesday 21/06Z...Isolated SHRA/TSRA through 18Z. Localized IFR conditions due to low clouds and fog are possible during the overnight hours. After 18Z, scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA developing. Stronger storms will be capable of producing wind gusts to 45 kts and brief MVFR and IFR conditions. Outside of storms, winds light and variable. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 21/06Z through Thursday 23/06Z...Look for SHRA/TSRA activity through the period, most numerous during the afternoon/evening hours. Stronger storms will produce brief MVFR and IFR conditions and gusty winds to 40 kts. localized IFR conditions due to low clouds and fog possible during the overnight hours. Outside of storms, surface winds light and variable. && .FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...A medium to high grade monsoon environment continues, with generally light winds outside of outflow and thunderstorm activity. Most storms will produce wetting rain and any stronger storms may produce flash flooding. The presence of a weak low pressure system, moving from east to west, may introduce an enhanced hail threat for Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue, generally light winds outside of outflow and thunderstorm activity. Most storms will produce wetting rain and any stronger storms may produce localized flash flooding. The continued presence of a weak low pressure system will prolong the potential for an enhanced hail threat through Wednesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Zanker AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...RR For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff