Tan-Tar-A Snow Report

227 FXUS63 KEAX 120649 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 149 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible today however, there is considerable uncertainty on timing and location. - Numerous rounds of showers and storms, particularly for northern Missouri, appear possible next week, with widespread cumulative heavy rain possible. - South of the heavier rain areas, well above normal temperatures look likely again with highs in the low to mid 90s generally south of the Missouri River. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 This is a very complex and uncertain forecast with how today`s convection will unfold. As of 06Z, a cluster of thunderstorms is maintaining itself as it tracks southeast across southeastern Nebraska. However, it will move into a poorer environment as it tracks southeast, with weaker instability and shear. As a result, anticipate this area to diminish/ dissipate with time and southeastward extent. This area seems to be on the surface front with reinforcement from the cold pool of the cluster of storms. As that boundary moves south through the area later this morning into the afternoon, it`s possible that additional storms develop in its vicinity. However, looking through forecast soundings for eastern Kansas and western Missouri, there is considerable convective inhibition to overcome. With minimal larger-scale forcing and weak forcing on the boundary, it`s possible little or no activity is able to develop. Another scenario is that, despite the surface based inhibition, there is ample elevated instability that may provide enough for storms to develop. Additionally, the NAM remains very robust in its instability forecast and that may allow for storms develop within the afternoon warmth along the boundary. With so much uncertainty in the forecast, relied heavily on ensemble guidance to derive PoPs for today. That generally depicts slight chance to low chance PoPs (15- 30%) for our western to southwestern zones this morning. Then just slight chances (15-20%) for the afternoon and evening hours before increasing chances during the late evening and overnight hours. Overnight, this method depicts an area of 30-40% chances across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With regards to the potential for severe storms, this is conditional on if we actually see storms, especially during the afternoon/evening when instability is the greatest. If storms are able to develop, deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts would support some organized storms with a damaging wind and large hail risk. Next week, ensemble guidance shows upper-level ridging, with well above normal 500mb heights building over the southeastern US, spreading into the local forecast area. Northern Missouri is likely to be on the northern edges of this upper ridging. Additionally, it looks like a quasi-stationary boundary sets up across northern Missouri/ southern Iowa, unable to move further south due to the strong ridging. This setup leads to multiple rounds of storms across northern Missouri. Cumulatively, from Sunday through the end of next week, widespread 2-5" rainfall looks possible from the repeated rounds of showers and storms. South of this, temperatures will have the potential to be well above normal, with highs in the low to mid 90s possible. With our normal temperatures now near 80 degrees, highs will potentially be 10-15 degrees above normal from roughly the Missouri River southward. These may be lower, if cloud cover can intrude further south and inhibit insolation. Additionally, stronger ridging could shift the heavier rain further north leading to warmer temperatures than currently forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 VFR conditions are currently forecast at all four terminals through the TAF period, however, uncertainty continues to remain in the forecast over the next 24 hours. Mostly clear skies and southerly winds are expected through the overnight at all four terminals before a wind shift to westerly/northwesterly comes tomorrow morning. Given the light winds, patchy fog development is possible, but confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAFs. A further wind shift to northeasterly is expected tomorrow afternoon. The majority of the uncertainty lies in the precipitation forecast. There are low-end chances (15-25%) for showers and storms around the terminals early tomorrow morning, but current expectations are for these to remain west of the terminals. Chances for showers and storms return to all four terminals tomorrow afternoon and evening, but confidence remains low regarding timing and coverage. Confidence is too low at this time for the inclusion of a PROB30 group, but the trends will be monitored for future TAF issuances. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Carothers