Tan-Tar-A Snow Report

843 FXUS63 KEAX 020737 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 237 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, fall-like, temperatures expected this weekend. Temperatures trend back above normal mid-late next week. - Dry conditions are expected through the entire forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Ascent is quickly fading away this morning as the the upper-level wave shifts to the east and cooler, drier air moves southward in the lower-levels. This will result in continued weakening of the already weak radar returns showing up as of 07Z. In fact, anticipate precipitation to have completely wound down by 12Z. With increasing subsidence, skies should clear out quickly as well, and this can already be seen upstream across Nebraska and Iowa in the Nighttime Microphysics RGB satellite imagery. At the surface, that cooler and drier air is being ushered into the region with a 1025mb surface high sliding south out of Canada and into the Plains. That high pressure will be primary influence on our weather through Saturday, leading to highs today in the mid 60s, about 10 degrees below normal, with some recovery for Saturday as the high shifts into the eastern Great Lakes. Saturday evening/night, another shortwave will track across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This will move another cold front south through the area with another push of slightly cooler but continued drier air south into the region. It really isn`t until the later half of the week, when low-level flow turns southerly again, that we see a rebound back to above normal temperatures. Normal high temperatures for mid to late next week are in the lower 70s and we`ll see highs about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year, based on the available guidance. With little or no moisture return into the area, as well as an absence of any shortwave moving through the area, precipitation chances are slim to none for the next week at least. We have a dry forecast going right now and based on available guidance, there is nearly no chance for rain over the next week. The one caveat, at this point, would be Wednesday, when a weak front moves into the area. Still, the probability of even seeing a hundredth of an inch is only around 5-10%. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Stratiform showers that have stuck around this evening will continue to diminish through the night. Low-level clouds will continue to progress southeastward, leading to higher cloud bases and a return to VFR conditions. We may see MVFR conditions hold on just a little bit longer tonight, especially at sites where shower activity and lower cloud cover lingers. Clouds will gradually diminish throughout the rest of the night, and cloud categories of FEW and SKC will be likely tomorrow. Expect winds to continue to come from the northeast, with gusts in the 10-20kt range. Winds will shift from the east, with gusts diminishing late in the TAF period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Bjork