Tan-Tar-A snow report

924 FXUS63 KEAX 100518 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1218 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Mostly dry weather tonight, though warm temperatures continue overnight. * Slight Risk for severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns, but can`t rule out the possibility of tornadoes. * Enhanced Risk for severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are also possible across the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 It is a mostly sunny, but hot and muggy day across the area, with sfc temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints touching the lower 70s. Some weak moisture convergence across northwestern MO has led to a few isolated showers to develop, but other than that most of the area will remain dry for the rest of the day. The Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM tonight. Next precip chances arrive by tomorrow morning ahead of a strong upper shortwave. Any shower and storms in the morning will be in response to WAA and low-level jetting, and are expected to be elevated. For tomorrow, the sfc pressure gradient will tighten, leading to gusty southerly winds through the day. This will increase our WAA, with afternoon temps warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. Fortunately, sfc dewpoints are not expected to be quite as high as today due to slightly better mixing, so our heat indices should remain below 100F for most areas. There was discussion with the surrounding WFOs on a Heat Advisory for tomorrow, but the overall consensus from collaboration was to not issue due to remaining below criteria. Southerly wind gusts up to 30-35mph are expected throughout tomorrow. There is also a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow, with scattered to numerous strong to severe storms are expected to develop in an environment that features steep lapse rates and strong instability. These storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, though there remains a tornado risk as well. The HREF prob of SBCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg is over 80% for majority of the forecast area. With the LLJ overhead, effective bulk shear will be favorable for supercells and organized severe convection along or just ahead of a slow moving cold front boundary that meanders across southeastern Nebraska and into northwest Missouri. Timing for severe storms is primarily between mid to late-afternoon through the late evening hours as the front slides into a strong unstable environment. Based off the latest CAMs, the best forcing overlapping the strong instability will be across northwest Missouri, and the bulk of storm activity could remain along and north I-70. Activity will likely diminish by 11pm-midnight as the low levels become more stable and with the frontal boundary possibly retreating back to the northwest for a short period of time. This will cause our area to remain in a rather warm and humid air mass, with the low temps Wednesday night remaining in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 ===== Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather Thursday ===== Hot and humid conditions continue on Thursday in a pre-frontal, strong WAA regime across the region. Moisture advection will increase across the region ahead of an upper trough swinging across the northern Plains, with an attendant sfc low ejecting across the central Plains. LLJ response ahead of the low/cold front will lead to increasing moisture transport, supporting sfc dewpoints to rise into the 70s. Grand Ensemble probability of dewpoints greater than 75F is greater than 25% E/SE of I-35. Afternoon max temps will range from the lower to mid-80s north of I-70, and upper-80s to low-90s to the south. These temps combined with the sfc dewpoints will yield heat indices approaching 100F across central MO. There could be consideration for a Heat Advisory on Thursday, but cloud cover and eventual precip/FROPA will inhibit the entire area from reaching advisory level heat indices. Sufficient heating through the afternoon will allow us to realize strong destabilization, with a 70% chance or higher to exceed 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE through the afternoon east of I-35, where this area will have the longest time to destabilize throughout the day. As the cold front slides through the area Thursday afternoon, it will become the focus for a line of thunderstorms to develop across the region. These storms will move into a strong unstable environment with favorable shear parameters to support organized severe storms. Given the CAPE profiles on model soundings, large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary hazards, through can`t rule out a tornado threat either given enough favorable low-level shear in proximity to the sfc low to increase our sfc-1km SRH values above 200 m2/s2. As such, SPC has kept a Slight/Enhanced Risks across the area in the D3 Outlook. The Enhanced Risk is for areas east of I-35. The best timing for severe storm potential will be between 20-00z Thursday afternoon, though this is dependent on the current timing of the cold front. Any slow down of FROPA will result in a later window for severe storms. PWATs will be near 2 inches, supporting high rain rates. However, storms appear to be progressive enough to limit flash flooding concerns. Though it`s worth keeping an eye on this potential, given a large portion of the area has been slammed by heavy rain and flooding in recent days. WPC paints a Marginal and Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on Thursday. FROPA is expected to occur around or shortly after 00z Thursday evening, with a notable wind shift from a warm southerly flow to a cooler NW component. Strong CAA will overtake the area, leading to sfc temps to drop down into the upper 50s by Friday morning. ===== Friday and Saturday ===== Upper trough axis and vorticity shift across the Ohio Valley on Friday, with sfc high pressure building across the Ozarks. Dry weather is expected, with highs in the low-80s. Sfc high pressure will slide east of the region by Saturday morning, opening our area back up to WAA as another mid-level shortwave moves across the region. Sfc dewpoints increase back into the 70s on Saturday, with showers and thunderstorms possible throughout the afternoon and possibly into the evening. There is potential for strong instability again, DCAPE over 1000, and deep layer shear greater than 30 kts. ===== Sunday into Early Next Week ===== A slightly drier trend is expected on Sunday as the upper wave moves east. While there are some isolated chances into next week, the greater confidence is in the pleasant temperatures. Highs for Sun- Tue are mostly in the 70s, with lower dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 VFR through the period outside of any showers or storms. High clouds will increase overnight from decaying thunderstorms over KS. A few showers may progress across the area mid morning, but a better chance of precipitation will accompany a cold front in the mid to late afternoon. Continued the PROB30 for TS for now. Winds are increasing and becoming gusty again as the low level jet intensifies. It should remain mixed enough to keep stronger LLWS from developing overnight. Gusts of 30-35 kts are anticipated by late morning and afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Padgett LONG TERM...Padgett AVIATION...Borghoff