Tan-Tar-A Snow Report

142 FXUS63 KEAX 020842 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 342 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild Weather Conditions Today - Gradual Warm Up This Week, Gradual Increase in Humidity - Rain Returns to the Forecast Wednesday and Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026 Amplified and positively tilted ridge axis currently extends from the Rockies into the Canadian Prairie Provinces with a broad 594dam high centered over the southwestern CONUS at the 500mb level. There is a stronger PV anomaly off the Pacific Northwest that has resulted troughing in the northwest CONUS, and this will eventually work to provide more activity by the the middle of the next work week. Over the next 24 to 36 hours, this pattern will maintain mid and upper- level northerly flow and dominant dAVA. Strong subsidence in this regime will continue to strengthen a broad anti-cyclone across much of the Central CONUS. For today and Monday, temperatures will remain in the 80s, with fairly low humidity as most of the Gulf moisture will not have a route into the lower Missouri River Valley during this time. Depending on how strong this surface anticyclone becomes, we may see a slightly stronger pressure gradient develop while the center of it is over the Central Plains, which could give us wind gusts at times around 15 MPH. This currently looks more favored for Monday afternoon than it does today. Temperatures will steadily climb back into the 90s as the week progresses. This will be caused by a series of vort maxima emanating from the Pacific Northwest ejecting into the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie Provinces, that will force the ridge axis further east, while also starting to deamplify the pattern for the Central CONUS. This will turn flow from 850mb and below to the surface southerly through the week, introducing a WAA regime. Current guidance still keeps the strongest dCVA well north of the area, which overall will limit forcing across our area. For Tuesday, low level flow is progged to have dominant southwesterly component to it which will push temperatures upward. By late Tuesday Night, as the ridge axis breaks down, low-level winds back to more a southerly component which will open up Gulf moisture transport for the lower Missouri River Valley. As a result, humidity will begin to increase, while temperatures still are forecast to remain in the 90s. As the PV anomaly over the Pacific Northwest continues to send vort maxima eastward and a trough attempts to dig into the Rockies, the Central Plains and Midwest will start to see an upward trend of dCVA which will attempt to generate a Lee surface cyclone across the area early Wednesday, eventually pushing eastward into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With better lift present and increasing moisture, rain showers and thunderstorm probabilities will increase Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Ensemble probabilities are favoring areas north of Hwy. 36 over a 50-60 percent chance of exceeding at 0.10 inches of QPF, though mentionable probabilities do extend all the way southward past the Interstate 70 corridor. With the deepening surface cyclone, notable CAPE axis does develop across the area, and should at least prime the environment for general thunderstorms. What is uncertain at this time, is how strong the dCVA will be, what the H5 height gradient and associated jet stream action will look like. This has implications for the shear profiles. Therefore, uncertain if this will pose any kind of severe potential. Deterministic model guidance continues to depict the better mid and upper-level kinematic support in the northern CONUS. For next weekend, the pattern looks rather unsettled across the area which could lead to multiple rounds of rain showers. Currently, ensemble probabilities for any specific time period next weekend are fairly low, as solutions amongst individual members vary widely in when forcing arrives. This is also leading to larger inner-quartile spread with respect to high temperatures toward the end of the 7 day forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 With high pressure moving into the area, VFR conditions are expected with light winds. One thing to watch for is river valley fog affecting the KSTJ terminal Sunday morning. HREF shows a <10% for 1 mile visibility or less. For now, I`m going to leave it out of the forecast given the low probabilities and that it looks like winds may stay elevated enough through the overnight to cause enough mixing to preclude fog development. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Krull AVIATION...CDB