Tan-Tar-A Snow Report

654 FXUS63 KEAX 220756 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 256 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the weekend. - Next chance (20-40%) for precipitation arrives Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Quite and mild conditions will continue today as a broad surface ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Ozarks will remain in control. Aloft, a upper level ridge continues to build over the central Plains in response to a upper level trough digging into the California coast. This is providing height rises across the region and will aid in highs rising into the mid 70s to near 80 despite weak mixing. Friday the upper level ridge axis will move directly over forecast area. This coupled with modest WAA developing at the surface will push highs into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Saturday, the aforementioned upper level trough will move into the Great Basin region and force an associated cold front into the Upper Midwest extending back into western Kansas. This will increase WAA over the area while the region still remains under the influence of the upper level ridge. This will keep highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Sunday, conditions will be similar as the upper level trough over the Great Basin slowly moves into the Eastern Rockies, and the associated cold front continue to remain to the north and west of the forecast area. While the upper level ridge axis will shift east of the area providing modest height falls, continued WAA will keep highs in the mid 70s to near 80. As has been the model trend he past several days and is typical with closed upper level systems, the upper level trough over the eastern Rockies continues to slow its eastward progression. The closed low system finally transitions to an upper wave as it moves out into the central/northern Plains on Monday. Monday now looks to stay dry as the system slows with highs in the 70s. Monday night, the now progressive upper level trough finally moves into the eastern Plains and forces the cold front into the area bringing the next chance for precipitation. The upper level trough will move through the region Tuesday continuing shower chances and return temperatures to near normal with highs in the 60s . Surface high pressure moves into the area behind this system on Tuesday night into Wednesday with above normal highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026 VFR conditions with light southeast winds prevailing. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...BT