Alpine Ski Club Snow Report

577 FXUS61 KCLE 300808 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 408 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Chances for showers and isolated storms increasing slightly across far northwest Ohio this morning. Increasing confidence in excessive heat impacts by midweek. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Excessive heat risk increases Monday through Wednesday, with heat indices in the mid 90s to near 100 possible. 2) Active storm track on the periphery of the ridge could bring shower/storm activity to portions of the area Sunday night through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Building surface/upper ridge over much of the eastern CONUS will bring increasing temperatures and humidity through midweek. NBM probs of 95F/100F continue to increase across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, with Wednesday looking like the hottest day of the week. With a lingering frontal boundary just north of the area through the first half of the week, some uncertainty remains with heat potential as upstream convection and cloud cover could limit heating during this period. However, confidence is increasing for heat headline needed for at least a portion of the area midweek. KEY MESSAGE 2... Continuing to monitor convective potential through midweek with active zonal jet pattern through the Great Lakes and the local area on the periphery of the ridge with building instability. Models are hinting at a few windows of convective potential for the local area. Aside front isentropic ascent/low level jet forced convection upstream across northern IN/southwest lower MI early this morning that could sneak into northwest OH, next best chance of impactful shower/storm activity across the area is late tonight. Low level jet refocuses isentropic ascent just north of the forecast area, with training convection possibly sneaking into northwest PA late tonight into Monday morning. Some higher PMM QPF signals in the HREF/REFS are enough to consider at least a small chance of heavy rainfall somewhere in the northwest PA/western NY area, with WPC highlighting the area in a Day 1 marginal risk for excessive rainfall. This could result in very isolated flash flooding somewhere in the region, but confidence is too low on coverage and placement at the moment to warrant headlines or amplified messaging. Difficult to pinpoint convective potential beyond the next 24 hours or so given the pattern, but with quasi-zonal/northwest flow through the Great Lakes into midweek and building instability, there could be some organized convective complexes that impact the area in the Monday night through Tuesday night timeframe. Ridging becomes more prominent across the local area Wednesday so would expect this day to be the least active convection-wise, but chances increase across the area late Wednesday/Thursday as a cold front sinks into the area. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Light showers are entering NW OH, though current observations keep conditions at VFR. Outside of the showers, ceilings will be around 10kft through much of the TAF period with some scattered to broken clouds around 5kft this afternoon. There`s low confidence in showers at most locations through this TAF period, with KERI the only terminal to see predominate showers late in the period. Winds will be at 5-10 knots out of the south- southeast then shift to be southwesterly during the afternoon. Outlook...Non-VFR possible into Monday with showers and thunderstorms primarily across NE OH and NW PA. Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. && .MARINE... Unsettled marine conditions return today as a warm front will lift north across the lake later today. This will bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms which could result in isolated higher winds and waves. Generally, winds will be out of the south to southwest at 5-10 knots through Monday evening. Winds will increase on Tuesday to 10-15 knots out of the southwest with waves building to 1-3 feet in the open waters. The nearshore will be 2 feet or less with the southwesterly flow. Winds and waves will subside to 5-10 knots and less than 2 feet by early Wednesday and continue through Thursday. Additionally, there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms across the lake throughout the week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...23 MARINE...23