Big Powderhorn Mountain Snow Report

299 FXUS63 KMQT 110800 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 400 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above normal temperatures persist through Monday. Highs into the 80s are likely over the western UP today. - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Ontonagon and Gogebic Counties today. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely elsewhere across the U.P. through this afternoon. - Chances for widespread rain showers with light accumulations late Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. -Temperatures return to near-normal Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 Early this morning, water vapor imagery shows a well-defined midlevel low spinning over the Pacific NW, with more subtle shortwave action over the Northern Plains, and the remnants of Isaias over western TN. This has helped shift the midlevel ridge more eastward, with the axis directed over the Lower Great Lakes. At the surface, weakening low pressure is moving into northern MN while sprawling surface high pressure is centered offshore of New England. This is keeping a fairly tight pressure gradient over the UP, though will note that the gradient is weaker compared to yesterday as the surface low has weakened. Wind gusts are beginning to fall back as a result, though southerly wind gusts still remain breezy with widespread gusts around 20-30mph still being reported across the UP. Otherwise, temperatures remain quite warm, hovering in the 60s and even near 70 in some of the downsloping areas. The surface low continues to weaken and elongate as we head into the daytime hours, with weak low pressure finally passing over the UP during the afternoon and evening. Persistent southerly flow keeps our very warm airmass in place, with highs once again ranging well into the 70s to lower 80s for most of the UP (away from Lake Michigan). Meanwhile, southerly wind gusts gradually decrease throughout the day, finally falling back below 20mph closer to sunset. Tonight into Monday, a cold front slowly drops southward from Ontario while another shortwave ejects out of the Plains. Clouds increase over the UP, and though some shower activity is possible in the proximity of the front over Lake Superior and the northern UP, this has plenty of dry air to contend with. Therefore, dry weather persists for most Monday, while temperatures rise from morning lows in the 50s to highs in the 70s away from Lake Superior. Near the lake, winds shifting out of the northeast should limit high temperatures to the 60s. The aforementioned shortwave moves through Monday night, bringing a quick round of widespread, if light, rain showers to the area. With some elevated instability indicated in soundings, a few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question. Latest guidance has a widespread 50-60% chance for rain totals around/in excess of a quarter inch by the time rain wraps up Tuesday morning. Ridging recovers later Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing a return to dry weather while temperatures trend more seasonal. Towards the latter half of the work week, the general setup among deterministic and ensemble guidance is for another midlevel low to close off and spin over the Rockies while a deepening trough drops out of Alberta. And this is where the similarities end, with some of the guidance showing a phasing of these two systems and a deep low pressure system moving over the UP, while other guidance just brings the more northern wave through. This all brings the potential for more rounds of wet weather into the forecast towards the end of the work week, as well as a shot of colder air into the weekend, though confidence in the finer points is low. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 112 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 VFR conditions likely to prevail at all sites throughout the period. The biggest threat to aviation through this morning is LLWS ongoing at all sites in response to a low level jet over the UP above a stable surface layer. LLWS ends as atmospheric mixing increases in the later morning hours, though the gusty winds out of the southwest will continue, slowly decreasing throughout the day. Tonight, ahead of an approaching disturbance, winds will shift and eventually become northerly to easterly (though SAW may not see N or E winds until after 06Z). Ceilings will begin to descend around or shortly after 06Z at IWD/CMX, with CMX around 30% likely to see MVFR conditions by 05Z, though any precipitation should hold off until at least 09Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 Lake Superior: Widespread southerly wind gusts of 25-30kts persist over the lake early this morning, though some gale-force gusts remain possible over east-central Lake Superior before sunrise. Winds continue to decrease through the daytime hours, falling to 10kts and shifting southwesterly over the western arm while winds remain at 15-20kts and southerly in the east. Waves, starting off at around 3-6ft this morning, fall to 1-3ft this afternoon. Monday morning, winds shift northeasterly and increase up to 25-30kts across most of the lake, with wave heights building to 5-7ft in the afternoon. Gales are possible, particularly in the western arm, with frequent gusts to 35 kt and waves to 9ft. Tuesday, wind speeds decrease to 15-20kts but remain northerly with wave heights from 3 to 5ft. Winds look to decrease further into the midweek period. Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Southerly wind gusts continue to gust up to 20-25kts in the Bay and up to 20-30kts over northern Lake Michigan early this morning, with wave heights up to 2-4ft in the bay and 5-7ft on the lake side. Winds slowly decrease the rest of today through tonight, reaching 10-15kts by Monday morning with 0-2ft waves. Monday afternoon, winds shift to the northeast and increase up to 15 kts as a cold front moves through the area. Tuesday, northerly winds continue near 20 kts with 2-3ft waves. Winds decrease into the midweek period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 411 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Ontonagon and Gogebic Counties for critical fire weather conditions today and Sunday. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected elsewhere across the U.P. this weekend. Highs are reaching into the mid-80s in the interior west (mid-70s east), with the same expected for Sunday. RHs will bottom out around 30-35% for most locations over the western UP (over 45% to the east) this afternoon, and 35-40% over the west (55- 60% east) tomorrow. Recovery Saturday overnight will be moderate, with RHs increasing to 60-70%, and very good Sunday night (90-100%). Southerly winds at 10-15mph (gusts up to 35mph in the west) remain elevated well into the evening tonight prior to diminishing slightly prior to sunrise. After a brief period tomorrow morning of elevated winds similar to today, winds start to diminish Sunday morning, falling to gusts to 15 mph by the nighttime. The next chances of rainfall occur Monday into Tuesday, with 30-50% chance of more than 0.25" 2pm Monday through 2pm Tuesday, and 60-90% chance of more than 0.10" during the same time frame. Northeast flow and cooler temperatures take hold late Monday, with highs Tuesday projected to be in the 50s across the UP. Minimal recent rainfall and ongoing drought conditions make ignition more likely. Any fire that develops could catch and spread quickly. Members of the public should obey local burn restrictions and report any wildfires by calling 911. Fire partners should continue to monitor forecast updates. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for MIZ002-009. Lake Superior... Gale Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for LSZ162- 263. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION...GS MARINE...RE/LC FIRE WEATHER...