Blackjack Ski Resort Snow Report

604 FXUS63 KMQT 190744 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 344 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of light rain (30-50%) mainly south of US-2 through this evening. Chances of 1/4 inch of rain are less than 10% for all except the Menominee area. - Sunday, light lake-enhanced showers will be possible (30-50%) especially along the terrain of the western and north-central UP. Gusty northeast winds will cause potentially hazardous swimming conditions and rip current risks along Lake Superior. - Dry pattern with high pressure sets up through much of next week. Below-average temperatures expected through Wednesday (including morning frost potential), giving way to above-normal temperatures late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 Early morning GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics RGB imagery shows deep clouds associated with a disturbance remaining mostly over Wisconsin, though the MNM METAR does show BKN028 at 0645Z. Elsewhere, fair-weather clouds or clear conditions are observed. KMQT radar shows the UP clear of precipitation as of 07Z but some scattered weak reflectivities have been observed just over the state line from Gogebic County as well as widespread weak reflectivities a county or two from Menominee County and moving east-northeast. Recent CAMs have been a bit more aggressive in bringing very light showers across much of the central UP today, but with the best forcing for showers well to the south, will keep PoPs and QPF low for this forecast package. A slight upwards trend in the temperature forecast for this morning has resulted in this forecast trimming back the frost potential to just some patches of the eastern third of the UP, so no frost advisory will be issued. The 500mb pattern consists of 595 dam ridging over northeast TX bounded by deep troughs centered over Idaho, Florida, and Hudson Bay. A ridge-riding shortwave over the WI/IL state line is causing the aforementioned disturbed weather to the south. While models have long-since trended precipitation with that disturbance primarily south of the UP, the Hudson trough will pass a weak cold front across the region for Sunday. A surge of cooler air aloft will cause marginally-supportive thermodynamic profiles for some lake-enhanced or lake-effect rainfall, with CAMs showing the orographic forcing of the western UP being enough to force weak precipitation. Thus, some light PoPs and a couple hundredths of an inch of QPF have been added for the north/western UP for Sunday. This will also come with some gustier NE winds, with gusts of 20+ MPH forecast especially along the Lake Superior shores. This will also drive waves of up to 6 ft within 5 miles of the Lake Superior shoreline, which will drastically increase the risk of hazardous rip currents and challenging swimming conditions for those trying to squeeze in a late-September Sunday beach day at Lake Superior beaches. In the wake of the weekend disturbances, the western CONUS trough will shift over the Dakotas by Sunday, weakening slightly. At the same time, ridging to the north of the trough amplifies, causing split flow. This results in dominant surface high pressure establishing over northern Ontario and Quebec through much of next week. The NBM reintroduces PoPs to the forecast late next Saturday, but that might be down to ensemble chaos more than an actual precip signal. Upstream ridging aloft results in cooler continental flow aloft and being on the south/southwest periphery of a surface high results in cool easterly to northeasterly flow at the surface off of the Canadian Shield, which will lead to cool conditions at the beginning of the week with a gradual warming trend as the week goes on. For instance, the NBM even calls for up to 50% chances of sub- freezing temperatures for Tuesday morning, though the LREF chances are significantly lower. By the end of the week, NBM highs are widespread 70+. The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks both show 50+% chances for the UP to be in above average temperatures for the end of September and a slight favoring of below normal precipitation (30- 40% chance). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 119 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 VFR conditions persist across all TAF sites through the majority of the TAF period. A weak low pressure moving south of the UP brings a shot at MVFR/IFR cigs at IWD in the afternoon- being placed near the axis of greater low level moisture. Otherwise winds remain light from the east gusting near 10 kts in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 Through today, weak low pressure to the south and departing high pressure to the northeast will keep wind gusts largely below 20 kt. A stronger high building to the north on Sunday in addition to gusty winds mixing down in the wake of a Hudson Bay cold front looks to bring 20-30 kt northeast gusts to most of Lake Superior. Waves across Lake Superior (especially in the south and the west) build to 4-6 ft. Waves increase to near 3 feet over northern Lake Michigan and Green Bay by Monday as well due to prolonged easterly flow approaching 20 kt. For the beginning of next week, high pressure building over Northern Ontario opposing low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will drive some gradient wind gusts to around 20 kt out of the east before model spread and forecast uncertainty increases late in the week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GS AVIATION...BW MARINE...GS