Cascade Mountain Snow Report

368 FXUS63 KGRB 140531 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers (50 to 80% chance) arrive Thursday afternoon, continuing at times through Friday. Expect most areas to see between 0.25 and 0.5" of total rainfall. - Northwest winds increase on Friday, with gusts between 35 and 45 mph possible. Gale force gusts expected across marine zones. - A widespread frost/freeze event is expected Friday night into early Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Precip chances... Radar continues to show weak returns percolating over the forecast area late this evening as transient shortwave energy passes over the area. However, absence of low level forcing and dry pocket between around 850 and 650 mb should keep QPF amounts light. Prominent subsidence inversion will then keep low stratus around through most of the afternoon on Wednesday. Ensembles continue to hone in on phasing system Thursday into Friday, with guidance showing northern and southern stream lows merging over the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday morning. Models generate light rain over central Wisconsin beginning early Tuesday afternoon as northward moisture transport brings PWATs to near 90th percentile (1.25 to 1.5"), with rain coverage spanning the entire forecast area by late in the afternoon. Signs point toward a soaking rainfall for most of northeast Wisconsin, with NBM probabilities showing a 40 to 70% signal for 0.5" of QPF along/south of the Hwy 29 corridor. Wrap around showers then continue through Friday, though how long they do will likely depend on whether phasing occurs directly overhead or further east. Latest suite of model runs have backed off on light snow potential across the far north on Friday, though a few flakes may mix in at times as 850 mb temps fall below 0C and robust northwest flow kicks in. Winds... Pressure gradient tightens up along the back edge of the departing surface low Thursday night into Friday, putting us under robust northwest flow regime. Combination of deep mixing and strong CAA will allow for transport of near 50 knot winds at 850 mb down to the surface, resulting in potential (30 to 60%) for gusts to 40 mph across the forecast area, highest along the lakeshore. As such, pretty slam dunk that marine hazards will be needed during this time, as NBM shows healthy signal (60 to 90%) for gale force gusts over all marine zones. Temperatures... Arctic high slides south Friday into Saturday, bringing a brief spell of well below normal temperatures and increased potential for frost/freeze. As highs struggle to make it into the 50s for some areas Friday afternoon, Friday night lows are forecast to plummet into the mid 20s to low 30s inland of Lake Michigan as skies clear out and winds decouple. As such, expect that frost/freeze headlines will be needed in the coming days. Return flow then quickly sets up over the weekend, resulting in high temperatures rebounding into the 60s. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Areas of MVFR CIGS across northern Wisconsin is expected to sag southward overnight and linger into Wednesday morning before lifting back into the VFR category by mid to late morning. Looking ahead, rain is expected on Thursday and strong northwest winds gusting to 30 to 40 knots are possible on Friday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Eckberg